Louisville football 2026: schedule, results, rankings

The rest of the season

Two real tests left: No. 8 Kentucky 50%, Georgia Tech 58%

Win out 15% · expect 2.5 of 4 more wins

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from 3% to 4%, peaking at 6% before a game

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 3rd in the ACC · 4-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Lincoln Kienholz 2,094 · Rushing Isaac Brown 707 · Receiving Tre Richardson 633 All player stats

The nationAP #16 · Coaches #19up 7 from last week · week 4 poll

The model#29 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #25 (+12.2) · FPI #18 · AP #16 is a vote; our rating ranks them #29. Why they differ

The marketLouisville by 14.5Betting line at Georgia Tech · our model 58% Louisville

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Louisville:athletics siteACCYouTube

Louisville · 2026 schedule and results5-3Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 59% · 2 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now. 1 win over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #61 to #31

Wk	Date	Our rank	Opp rank	Line	Opponent	Result	Record	Conf	Top performers
1	Sep 6	#61	#12	+6.5✓ +3.5	Ole Miss (N)	L 38-41 146	0-1	0-0	Pass Kienholz 307 · Rush Kienholz 69 · Rec Richardson 83
2	Sep 11	#58	#146	−39.5✓ +6.5	Villanova	W 59-13 128 Firestorm	1-1	0-0	Pass Kienholz 332 · Rush Davis 86 · Rec McCoy 102
3	Sep 19	#56	#12	−3✓ +7	SMUTop 25 win	W 41-31 140	2-1	1-0	Pass Kienholz 177 · Rush Brown 163 · Rec McCoy 62
4	Sep 26	#43	#73	−11.5✗ −14.5	Wake Forest	L 27-30 135 Loud	2-2	1-1	Pass Kienholz 324 · Rush Brown 48 · Rec Richardson 85
5	Oct 3	#47	#41	−5.5✗ −8.5	@NC State	L 28-31 139	2-3	1-2	Pass Kienholz 254 · Rush Brown 125 · Rec Richardson 117
6	Oct 9	#50	#59	−4✓ +20	Florida State	W 44-20 135	3-3	2-2	Pass Kienholz 140 · Rush Brown 235 · Rec McCoy 78
7	Oct 17	#36	#105	−14.5✗ −6.5	@Syracuse	W 34-26 144	4-3	3-2	Pass Kienholz 310 · Rush Kienholz 53 · Rec McCoy 93
8	Bye week
9	Oct 31	#31	#130	−22.5✓ +5.5	Stanford	W 52-24 131	5-3	4-2	Pass Kienholz 250 · Rush Brown 139 · Rec Richardson 140
10	Nov 7	#28	#125	−14.5	@Georgia Tech	7:30 pm ET · ACC Network58% to win
11	Nov 14	#29	#66		@North Carolina	time TBA70% to win
12	Nov 21				Pittsburgh	time TBA74% to win
13	Nov 28				@Kentucky	time TBA

How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Louisville, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Louisville: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼

Date	Opp	Result	Yds	TO	TOP	EPA/play	Success%	Big plays (IsoPPP)	Note
Oct 31	Stanford	W 52-24	545	1	29:18	+0.394	56.5%	1.30	Best defensive stand
Oct 17	@Syracuse	W 34-26	425	2	27:36	+0.187	42.6%	1.65	Most explosive
Oct 9	Florida State	W 44-20	537	0	28:42	+0.429	50.8%	1.44
Oct 3	@NC State	L 28-31	485	3	22:40	+0.234	48.1%	1.50	One-score loss
Sep 26	Wake Forest	L 27-30	399	1	33:34	+0.104	42.7%	1.29	Season-low EPA/play
Sep 19	SMU	W 41-31	442	0	28:04	+0.405	49.2%	1.45
Sep 11	Villanova	W 59-13	635	0	29:09	+0.627	65.2%	1.24	Season-high EPA/play
Sep 6	Ole Miss	L 38-41	469	0	30:58	+0.346	44.1%	1.48	Defense's roughest night
Season average (8 games)			492	0.9		+0.341	49.9%	1.42

Louisville's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast

Season line7.5 winsover -118

Offense eliteDefense solidGives up the big play

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 7.5▲1 since Sep 9

ACC title#3 in market+3,000

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

W 52-24 vs Stanford

Louisville fans

r/CFB

“Nothing to see here folks, just your average ordinary 28 point win.”

3d ago

r/CFB

“Props to Mark Ivey for turning a top 25 defense into one of the worst defenses in the P4 with most of the same players. I couldn't have done a much better job…”

3d ago

Stanford fans on Louisville

r/CFB

“Tbh I feel like it could go either way. If a Louisville player did that on a Stanford player, I'd be similarly ambivalent on the call.”

3d ago

W 34-26 at Syracuse

Louisville fans

r/CFB

“I hate these commentators so much, good lord”

2w ago

r/CFB

“It’s nice when the other team does undisciplined bullshit after the play instead of us.”

2w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 28Governor's Cupat AP #8 Kentucky · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

Louisville has won three of its last five.

7-3 over the last 10, and won the last three.

Streak W3Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3

Playoff chance, day by day

4% now · ▲ 1 point in the last week

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

What a title game and a playoff run could add

Floor7-6A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.

Base9-4A bowl game.

Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

Active arcs

Cooling

Louisville unveils theme game calendar for 2026 season

How will these themes impact fan engagement and team performance?

Cooling

Indianapolis safety Keontay Toomer commits to Louisville Cardinals - Yahoo…

How will Toomer fit into Louisville's defensive plans?

Program ledgerLatest: Fell out of the AP Top 25 (2026, week 5)

The program ledger

since 2025

2026 · Wk 5Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 4 · Lost 27-30 at home to Wake Forestwas No. 16
2026 · Wk 4Climbed to No. 16 in the AP Top 25Week 3 · Won 41-31 at home over SMU↑7 · from No. 23
2025 · Wk 13Fell out of the AP Top 25The committee dropped them out too, from No. 20.Week 12 · Lost 19-20 at home to Clemsonwas No. 19
2025 · Wk 12Fell to No. 19 in the AP Top 25The committee dropped them the same five spots, to No. 20.Week 11 · Lost 26-29 at home to California↓5 · from No. 14
2025 · Wk 9Entered the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 24-21 at Miamiat No. 19

Roster and recruiting

Roster35% of production back, talent #37

Roster reload: Louisville

2026 snapshot, Nov 4

Returning Production35%Low continuity / heavy reload

Talent Composite#37 nationally247 composite 740.0

Portal Additions33Primary repair: CB

Portal Losses40Primary pressure: EDGE

Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1), 1 with a next man up identified below

Recruiting Reload#48Development class

WRin 6 - Tre Richardson4.38out 6 - Antonio Meeks3.60Upgrade

current room: 202 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Slot Technicianwins underneath on volume and route precision

Third program

DLin 5 - Jerod Smith II3.60out 5 - Jerry Lawson3.80Even

current room: 270 lbs avg (2025 roster)

3-Tech Penetratordisrupts the pocket from the interior

Transferred in

EDGEin 2 - Tyler Thompson3.70out 5 - AJ Green4.12Starter Risk

3-Tech Penetratordisrupts the pocket from the interior

Transferred in

Sin 3 - Koen Entringer3.90out 4 - Corey Gordon3.60Even

Hybrid Nickelmoves between deep coverage and the slot

Transferred in

IOLin 3 - Eryx Daugherty3.80out 3 - Jordan Church4.12Even

current room: 297 lbs avg (2025 roster)

RBin 1 - Marquise Davis3.70out 4 - Isaac Brown4.50Starter Risk

current room: 193 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Next man up

WR · departedChris Bell3★ · Rd 3, Pk 30

NowTrey DurbinFR

Next man up

Full roster (108 players)

CBDJ Waller Jr.

DBAnderson Mitchell, Antonio Harris, Antonio Watts, Blake Ruffin, Brycen Scott, Garion McPherson, Jabari Mack, Jaydin Broadnax, Jordan Gervais, Kaleb Beasley, Koen Entringer, Kris Brunson, Micah Rice, Myles Norwood, Santana Wilson, Tayon Holloway

DLAdonijah Green, Bailey Abercrombie, Chris Jones Jr., Clev Lubin, Daylen Russell, Demeco Kennedy, Dillon Smith, Eric Hazzard, Jerod Smith II, Joshua Donald, Keon Webb, Maurice Davis, Micah Carter, Reece Sellers, Sam Dawson, Tommy Ziesmer, Tyler Thompson

LBBenjamin Perry, Brady Ballart, Caleb Matelau, Cameron White, Jacob Smith, Kalib Perry, Stanquan Clark, T.J. Capers, Taj Powell, Trent Carter

LSDrew Kegebein, Hayden Travelstead, Ryan Manis

OLAnwar O'Neal, Ben Corhei, Cameron Gorin, Cason Henry, Charlie Edgeworth, Ellis McAdoo, Eryx Daugherty, Evan Wibberley, Gradey Anthony, James Glover-Tyson, Jarvis Strickland, Jimmy Williams III, Johnnie Brown III, Lance Robinson, Max Merz, Naeer Jackson, Sam Secrest, Tyler Folmar

OTBryten Close

PAdam Winkenhofer, Jacob Baker, Niall Hayes

PKBode Shoaps, Carson Hilbert, Garth White, Nick Keller

QBBriggs Cherry, Davin Wydner, Lincoln Kienholz, Mason Fields, Ryan Zimmerman

RBBraxton Jennings, Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown, Lekhy Thompkins, Marquise Davis

SJordan Vann, Travaris Banks

TEBrody Foley, Dylan Mesman, Hamilton Atkins, Jaleel Skinner, Julius Miles, Justyn Reid, Travis Egan

WRDJ Williams, DeVuan Jones, Elizjah Lewis, Gavin Waddell, Jackson Voth, Jakob Dixon, Kris Hughes, Lawayne McCoy, Marlon Harbin, Marlon Harbin, Montavin Quisenberry, Payton Cook, Rhys Dorsey, Terrence McWilliams Jr., Tre Richardson, Treyshun Hurry

Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class

★★★☆☆

Dre'Mail Carothers

QB · Owensboro, KY

#598 national

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Louisville Defeats SMU 41-31

710 upvotes · Sep 2026

[Postgame Thread] SMU Defeats Louisville 38-6

329 upvotes · Nov 2025

[Game Thread] Louisville @ SMU (12:00 PM ET)

26 upvotes · Nov 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 53% of FBS programs

→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

53rd percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.

Fan vs. market≈

53^rd

Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)

7.5

Sportsbook win total
(57^th among FBS)

Fan mood aligned with market consensus

Win total consensus · 1 book

Where voters differPollsters don't agree — here's how far apart.

Voter spread

Just one AP voter, Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News), has them ranked — at #25. The other 69 voters left them off entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

RivalsRival pulse: Kentucky hopeful

Rival pulse

Kentucky

Hopeful

Governor's Cup

Cincinnati

Mixed

-1

Keg of Nails

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Louisville

Athletics siteLouisville Athletics
Conference pagetheacc.com football
On YouTube@gocards

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site

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