ACC North Carolina

Head coach Bill Belichick · 2nd season · 8-12 at North Carolina

Record4-42-3 ACC · T-9th
Bowl2 wins to goto bowl eligibility
Nextat UConnSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · CBS Sports Network

The rest of the season

4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 16 Louisville 30%

Win out 5% · expect 1.9 of 4 more wins

North Carolina's chance to win each game left, from our model: UConn 48%, Louisville 30%, Virginia 56%, NC State 59%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 59% to 62%, peaking at 87% before a game

59%50%L45%L69%W87%W73%L62%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 9th in the ACC · 2-3 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Billy Edwards 1,871 · Rushing Benjamin Hall 296 · Receiving Jordan Shipp 587 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#65 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #58 (+3.7) · FPI #38
The marketNorth Carolina by 7Betting line at UConn · our model 48% North Carolina

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow North Carolina:athletics siteACCInstagram

Schedule and results

North Carolina · 2026 schedule and results4-4Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 69% · 2 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now. 1 win over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #136 to #67
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Aug 29#136#49+7.5✓ +12.5TCU (N)W 15-10 128North Carolina won 15-10 vs TCU. Chance to win started at 27%, low 13%, high 93%.1-00-0Pass Edwards 232 · Rush Hall 36 · Rec Thurman 94
2Sep 12#127#150−36.5✗ −4.5East Tennessee StateW 35-3 120North Carolina won 35-3 vs East Tennessee State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.2-00-0Pass Edwards 244 · Rush Hall 49 · Rec Thurman 71
3Sep 19#112#19+3✗ −5@ClemsonL 20-28 135North Carolina lost 20-28 at Clemson. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 88%.2-10-1Pass Edwards 135 · Rush Hall 130 · Rec Shipp 68
4Bye week
5Oct 3#104#3+21✓ +10Notre DameL 26-37 125North Carolina lost 26-37 vs Notre Dame. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 26%.2-20-1Pass Edwards 208 · Rush Hall 36 · Rec Shipp 109
6Oct 10#88#37+3.5✓ +7.5@PittsburghTop 25 winW 21-17 136North Carolina won 21-17 at Pittsburgh. Chance to win started at 32%, low 13%, high 86%.3-21-1Pass Edwards 249 · Rush Hall 25 · Rec Shipp 93
7Oct 17#67#52+3✓ +7@DukeW 24-20 135North Carolina won 24-20 at Duke. Chance to win started at 38%, low 24%, high 93%.4-22-1Pass Edwards 191 · Rush McGill 75 · Rec Shipp 75
8Oct 24#61#112−7.5✗ −8.5SyracuseL 30-31 152North Carolina lost 30-31 vs Syracuse. Chance to win started at 76%, low under 1%, high 97%. Firestorm4-32-2Pass Edwards 271 · Rush McGill 62 · Rec Shipp 102
9Oct 31#67#5+13.5✓ +10.5MiamiL 35-38 126North Carolina lost 35-38 vs Miami. Chance to win started at 22%, low 3%, high 52%. Firestorm4-42-3Pass Edwards 341 · Rush June 44 · Rec Thurman 70
10Nov 7#61#84−7@UConn12 pm ET · CBS Sports Network48% to win
11Nov 14#66#29Louisvilletime TBA30% to win
12Nov 21@Virginiatime TBA56% to win
13Nov 28+1.5NC Statetime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for North Carolina, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for North Carolina: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31MiamiL 35-38407130:51+0.35861.2%1.15Best success rate
Oct 24SyracuseL 30-31372028:33+0.16446.4%1.13One-score loss
Oct 17@DukeW 24-20326228:37+0.12046.2%1.05One-score win
Oct 10@PittsburghW 21-17269223:28-0.06035.8%1.22One-score win
Oct 3Notre DameL 26-37285222:56+0.17237.3%1.46Most explosive
Sep 19@ClemsonL 20-28349233:32-0.07543.5%1.05Season-low EPA/play
Sep 12East Tennessee StateW 35-3427026:16+0.50056.4%1.22Season-high EPA/play
Aug 29TCUW 15-10322226:58+0.10746.6%0.92One-score win
Season average (8 games)3451.4+0.16146.7%1.15

North Carolina's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Offense solidMethodical, ball-controlDefense solid

Season expectations

ACC title#15 in market+30,000

Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

L 35-38 vs Miami

North Carolina fans
r/CFB
“At least this one we were actually offsides”
3d ago
r/tarheels
“That DPI was garbage. Just two dudes handfighting.”
3d ago
Miami fans on North Carolina
r/MiamiHurricanes
“North Carolina played as good as they could have. They had a good game plan on offense. Kudos to them but eff em”
3d ago

L 30-31 vs Syracuse

North Carolina fans
r/CFB
“They did not send their best with this broadcast team lol”
1w ago
r/CFB
“57 whole seconds. Really giving the defense time to recover, Bobby.”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 28Carolina-Statevs NC State · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

North Carolina has won two of its last five.

4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.

Streak L2Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
He’s very good at setting up his routes and getting into space and helping his quarterback
Belichick · On32 days after North Carolina's 2026 game against Syracuse

Range of outcomes · North Carolina · 2026

North Carolina’s most likely regular season is 6-6. 89% of outcomes land from 5-7 to 7-5.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

4 wins 7%; 5 wins 27%; 6 wins 39%; 7 wins 23%; 8 wins 5%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 49 combined points, rock fights

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4

Game feel49rock fightscombined pts / game14th highest-scoring of 17 in the ACC
Heart rate3-3white-knucklein one-score games (6 of 8)1st most one-score games of 17 in the ACC
Margin+2.8competitiveavg scoring margin11th best margin of 17 in the ACC
Tempo60methodicaloffensive plays / game17th fastest of 17 in the ACC
Big plays1.15grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)16th most explosive of 17 in the ACC
Home crowd46,905avg attendance9th biggest crowds of 17 in the ACC

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

North Carolina is the basketball school that stunned the sport by hiring Bill Belichick — six Super Bowl rings walking into a football program that had never quite committed, and a 4-8 first year that turned a coronation into a spectacle.

Title DroughtSince 1980 · 46 yrs

Fans grew tired of being a national punchline, the basketball school in over its head, the tabloid story, the 4-8 schadenfreude, and want the people enjoying the experiment's stumble to remember…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

North Carolina · Game-day weather

Typical at Kenan Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 88

  • noon: 89, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

North Carolina is the basketball school with a 138-year football program and the patience to keep funding the experiment.

Offense: SolidStyle: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Solid
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

Active arcs

Cooling
South Carolina owes North Carolina $1 million for canceled football series
How will this financial penalty impact future scheduling decisions?
Cooling
North Carolina’s three games to define its 2026 season
Which matchups will shape North Carolina’s success in 2026?
Read the North Carolina story →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025Hired Bill Belichick

Roster and recruiting

Roster28% of production back, talent #28

Roster reload: North Carolina

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production28%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#28 nationally247 composite 767.9
Portal Additions19Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses32Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#19Top-25 recruiting class
WRin 2 - Trech Kekahuna3.80out 7 - Alex Taylor3.60Starter Risk
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receivermoves the chains on third down
Third program
DLin 1 - Tarvorise Brown3.60out 4 - D'Antre Robinson4.38Starter Risk
current room: 280 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Derek Mcdonald3.40out 3 - Mikai Gbayor4.12Downgrade
current room: 224 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Linebackeris steady in every phase without a signature trait
Transferred in
TEin 3 - Jelani Thurman3.90out 2 - Connor Cox3.70Upgrade
current room: 242 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Complete TEshows up in the passing game from any alignment
Former four-star
EDGEin 2 - Jaylen Harvey3.60out 3 - Tyler Thompson3.70Downgrade
3-Tech Penetratordisrupts the pocket from the interior
Transferred in
QBin 2 - Miles O'Neill3.60out 3 - Bryce Baker3.70Downgrade
current room: 212 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Full roster (112 players)
UNKDonovan Hoilette
DBAde Willie, Coleman Bryson, David Davis, Graham Reintjes, Jaiden Patterson, Jakob Weatherspoon, Jalon Thompson, Jamarrion Gordon, Javion Butts, Jaziel Hart, Jermaine Anderson, Julian Burns, Julian Peterson, Kaleb Cost, Kenton Dopson III, Khristian Dunbar-Hawkins, Peyton Waters, Reggie Love II, Tre Miller, Xavier Jackson
DLDavid Jackson III, Emmanuel Nwaiwu, Isaiah Johnson, Jaylen Harvey, Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu, Joseph Mupoyi, Leroy Jackson, Melkart Abou-Jaoude, Nicco Maggio, Tarvorise Brown, Trashawn Ruffin, Trey Giddens, Viliami Moala, Vodney Cleveland, Xavier Lewis, Zavion Griffin-Haynes
FBHenry Martello
LBAshton Blatt, Calvin Thomas, DQ Forkpa, Daniel Anderson, Derek Mcdonald, Gregory Smith, Jake Bauer, Jayden Griffin-Haynes, Jonathan Agumadu, Jordan Avinger, Lantz Pascal, Peyton Seelmann, Timir Hickman-Collins, Tyler Houser
LSGannon Burt, Roman Wazni
OLAidan Banfield, Andrew Threatt, Anthony Hall, Brandon Homady, Byron Nelson, Christo Kelly, Cristian Alvarez, Dujuan Davis, Eidan Buchanan, J.B. Shabazz, JacQawn McRoy, Jacqawn Mcroy, Jonah Rodriguez, Jordan Hall, Nick Fiumara, Peter Pesansky, Rowan Byrne, Trey Blue, Will Conroy, Zion Smith
PAdam Mccann-Gibbs, Jacob Horvath
PKAeron Burrell, David Green, Rece Verhoff
QBAndres Miyares Jr., Au'Tori Newkirk, Billy Edwards, DJ Mazzone, Miles O'Neill, Travis Burgess
RBBenjamin Hall, Charleston French, Crew Davis, Demon June, Jaylen McGill, Jo Jo Troupe, Kaleb Jackson
TECarson Sneed, Deems May, Dream Rashad, Jaxxon Warren, Jelani Thurman, Jordan Washington, Shamar Easter
WRC.J. Sadler, Carnell Warren, Dayton Sneed, Jaden Jefferson, Jordan Shipp, Keeyun Chapman, Kymistrii Young, Madrid Tucker, Mason Humphrey, Nathan Leacock, Nyqir Helton, Trech Kekahuna, Zamaurious Robertson
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Noah Spinks
QB · Humble, TX
#1473 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Game Thread] TCU vs. North Carolina (12:00 PM ET)
432 upvotes · Aug 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 15% of FBS programs
↓

Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years

15th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
15th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
6.5
Sportsbook win total
(42nd among FBS)
Market 27pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
RivalsRival pulse: Duke bearish

Rival pulse

Duke
Bearish
-23
Victory Bell
NC State
Mixed
+1
Carolina-State

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow North Carolina

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site