Miami 38-35 North Carolina (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Miami · North Carolina

No. 1 Miami8-038

North Carolina4-435Final

Sat, Oct 31 · Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, N.C. · Crowd 44,257

No. 1 Miami beat North Carolina 38-35.

We had Miami favored. It won.

Next: Miami at Notre Dame, Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · Miami underdog by 5.5

Next: North Carolina at UConn, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET · North Carolina favored by 7

Oh my god, we don’t need to see his mother again. Saying that as a Miami fan. Enough is enough.

A Miami fan

How it swung

The turning point: Fletcher 2-yd TD run, Miami goes ahead 31-28 (Q4, 7:49). Miami went from 49% to 76% to win. Fans right then: “ACC refs are hilarious. Toney is stopped for a solid 2 seconds until the linemen run in.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami a 90% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.

The edge changed hands 4 times before Miami won it.

The edge changed hands 4 times and North Carolina came out on the wrong end.

FinalMiami 38-35 North CarolinaMiami wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q3 5:14Fletcher 2-yd TD run, Miami goes ahead 24-21Miami 56% → 78% (+22)
2Q4 11:46June 1-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 28-24Miami 71% → 48% (−23)
3Q4 7:494th and 1Fletcher 2-yd TD run, Miami goes ahead 31-28Miami 49% → 76% (+27)

The three plays that swung it

1Q3 5:14Fletcher 2-yd TD run, Miami goes ahead 24-21North Carolina 44% → 22% (−22)
2Q4 11:46June 1-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 28-24North Carolina 29% → 52% (+23)
3Q4 7:494th and 1Fletcher 2-yd TD run, Miami goes ahead 31-28North Carolina 51% → 24% (−27)

ACC refs are hilarious. Toney is stopped for a solid 2 seconds until the linemen run in.

Q4 10:15 · A North Carolina fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 13:27Fans decry ACC corruption after holding call overturns UNC touchdownWow what an ass call. Literally no effect on the play and also not even that crazy of a holdr/CFB game threadAfter further review, the ACC cannot have their #1 team lose on prime timer/CFB game thread
Q4 10:15Fans argue ACC refs missed delay of game and delayed whistle on Miami driveDelay of game?????r/CFB game thread
Q4 6:58Edwards fumbles after sack, Miami recovers as fans criticize his pocket awarenessWelcome back Billy Edwardsr/CFB game threadI’ve been saying Billy had a pick in him. I was wrong, it was a fumbler/CFB game thread
Q4 2:38Mensah throws touchdown pass to Toney, giving Miami a 38-28 leadWhen i saw Malachi Toney pissed off on the last play I knew he was scoring a td on the next one… this man is so specialr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:45Officials flag Miami on Edwards pass to Thurman, giving UNC a first downBilly Edwards is playing the best game of his life and still cost us the game. This performance just makes me more mad at how poorly he played against Clemson and Syracuse.r/CFB game thread

Miami’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Miami -13.5), at 78% for Miami (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a North Carolina or Miami flair (352 and 801); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Miami’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Miami scored on 6 of its 8 drives; North Carolina on 5 of its 8.

Miami’s drives are teal, North Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From North Carolina’s side

North Carolina’s best moment: June 1-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 28-24 (Q4 11:46). It lifted North Carolina’s win chance by 23 points.

How North Carolina fans took it: “Im proud of our boys for taking the 1 seed to a three point game to the wire” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Firestorm

The jump was firestorm; the crowd was busy.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“I never realized how insufferable Miami and their fans were”

A North Carolina fan

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

North Carolina fans

edwards“Let it be known I've never said a bad word about Billy Edwards Jr. (Don't check my post history)”

call“This is the part where they start to call some non-consequential tick tack calls on Miami so the final number of flags doesn’t look lopsided”

refs“ACC refs are hilarious. Toney is stopped for a solid 2 seconds until the linemen run in.”

ref“Ref standing right next to the play doesn’t call it so the one 20 yards away does”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, don, now, back.

What it cost

Miami’s chance to make the playoff rose from 82% to 85%.

Make the playoff

Miami · won82% → ▲85%

North Carolina · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Miami · won68% → ▲69%

North Carolina · lost0% → 0%

Win the title

Miami · won8% → ▲9%

North Carolina · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Miami plays at Notre Dame on Sat Nov 7 with an 85% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Miami 38, North Carolina 35

North Carolina covered +13.5 by 10.5. The total, 73, went over 52.5.

Team totals	Miami	North Carolina
Total yards	416	407
Passing	22 of 29, 274 yds	28 of 34, 341 yds
Rushing	33 for 142 yds	30 for 66 yds
First downs	25	27
Third down	6 of 11	8 of 11
Fourth down	2 of 2	2 of 2
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	3 for 30 yds	6 for 37 yds
Time of possession	29:09	30:51

Miami leaders

Passing Darian Mensah 22 of 29, 274 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Javian Mallory 12 for 51 yds; Mark Fletcher Jr. 13 for 43 yds, 2 TD
Receiving Malachi Toney 7 for 75 yds, 2 TD; Cooper Barkate 4 for 71 yds

North Carolina leaders

Passing Billy Edwards 28 of 34, 341 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Demon June 13 for 44 yds, 1 TD; Benjamin Hall 3 for 13 yds
Receiving Jelani Thurman 5 for 70 yds, 2 TD; Jaylen McGill 6 for 69 yds

No rain through the game

61° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Kenan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 7:49 left10:27 p.m.

Miami 31, North Carolina 28 · North Carolina 24% to win

no rain · 57°

Fletcher 2-yd TD run, Miami goes ahead 31-28

Measured at Durham - Duke North Heliport airport, 9.3 miles away, and Raleigh / Durham airport, 15 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Miami · 7-0

Rated 10th in our preseason ratings, 5th now.

Three straight wins, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 52-23 vs PittsburghTop 25 No. 50 of 668 teams

won by 29 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 43-35 vs Florida State No. 57 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 41-13 @ Clemson No. 30 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 14-point favorite

W 52-3 vs Central Michigan No. 130 of 668 teams

won by 49 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 33-20 @ Wake ForestTop 25 No. 73 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 77-7 vs Florida A&M No. 216 of 668 teams

won by 70 as a 59.5-point favorite

W 45-6 @ Stanford No. 93 of 668 teams

won by 39 as a 24.5-point favorite

Last three games

North Carolina · 4-3

Rated 136th in our preseason ratings, 67th now, up 69 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Duke as a 3-point underdog.

L 30-31 vs Syracuse No. 107 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 24-20 @ Duke No. 53 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 3-point underdog

W 21-17 @ PittsburghTop 25 No. 40 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 26-37 vs Notre DameTop 25 No. 4 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 21-point underdog

L 20-28 @ Clemson No. 23 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 3-point underdog

W 35-3 vs East Tennessee State No. 160 of 668 teams

won by 32 as a 36.5-point favorite

W 15-10 @ TCU No. 53 of 668 teams

won by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog

Week by week

North Carolina

Wk 3Lat Clemson20-28
Wk 5Lvs Notre Dame26-37
Wk 6Wat Pittsburgh21-17
Wk 7Wat Duke24-20
Wk 8Lvs Syracuse30-31

Miami

Wk 3Wat Wake Forest33-20
Wk 4Wvs Central Michigan52-3
Wk 5Wat Clemson41-13
Wk 7Wvs Florida State43-35
Wk 8Wvs Pittsburgh52-23

Power rating by week

Miami is rated 12.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Miami’s success rate against North Carolina, 83 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Miami’s success rate against North Carolina’s defense
Miami offense, 99th percentile · North Carolina defense, 16th
Miami’s passing EPA against North Carolina’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · North Carolina defense, 50th
Miami’s explosive plays against North Carolina’s defense
Miami offense, 74th percentile · North Carolina defense, 97th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MiamiNorth Carolina

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

North Carolina leads the series 16-11

27 meetings since 1946 · North Carolina has won the last 5

2023North Carolina 41-31
2022North Carolina 27-24
2021North Carolina 45-42
2020North Carolina 62-26
2019North Carolina 28-25

Each line is North Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. North Carolina is 3-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Miami fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (45th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Miami favored by 13.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Miami by 13.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward North Carolina.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

North Carolina is worth +1.5 points (±3.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 10th percentile.

49% at home, 43% on the road against FBS opponents (22-23 home, 19-25 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 691 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

North Carolina 62, Miami 26Dec 12, 2020

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

North Carolina8th2-2
Miami1st5-0

Full ACC standings

No. 1 Miami beats North Carolina 38-35

How it swung

Watch the plays

Every drive

From North Carolina’s side

When fans got loud

Two crowds, one game

What it cost

Box score

Miami leaders

North Carolina leaders

No rain through the game

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

North Carolina

Miami

Power rating by week

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Miami’s success rate against North Carolina, 83 points

Season profile

The series

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Miami by 13.5, and it went to form

The market

Home field

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings