The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Mercer 54%, Wofford 61%
Win out 29% · expect 2.0 of 3 more wins
East Tennessee State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Samford 87%, Wofford 61%, Mercer 54%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Mason Mims 1,827 · Rushing TJ Peyton 860 · Receiving Suderian Harrison 414 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Campbell | L 37-49 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mims 373 · Rush Peyton 80 · Rec Harrison 99 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Tusculum | W 48-14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mims 242 · Rush Peyton 121 · Rec Harrison 71 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @North Carolina | L 3-35 120 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Mims 178 · Rush Peyton 52 · Rec Browder 50 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | West Georgia | W 35-27 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Mims 198 · Rush Peyton 94 · Rec Winton 96 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Western Carolina | W 58-31 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Mims 220 · Rush Peyton 102 · Rec Weary 60 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Chattanooga | W 14-3 | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Mims 186 · Rush Albritton 95 · Rec Winton 57 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @The Citadel | W 34-16 | 5-2 | 3-0 | Pass Mims 143 · Rush Peyton 110 · Rec Harrison 85 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @VMI | W 38-0 | 6-2 | 4-0 | Pass Mims 173 · Rush Peyton 121 · Rec Griffin 56 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Tennessee Tech | L 17-24 | 6-3 | 4-1 | Pass Mims 114 · Rush Peyton 123 · Rec Harrison 39 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Samford | 1 pm ET87% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Wofford | 1:30 pm ET61% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Mercer | 3 pm ET54% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for East Tennessee State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Tennessee Tech | L 17-24 | — | — | — | +0.034 | 38.4% | 1.13 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | @VMI | W 38-0 | — | — | — | +0.306 | 56.2% | 1.08 | Blowout win |
| Oct 10 | @The Citadel | W 34-16 | — | — | — | +0.050 | 35.6% | 1.15 | |
| Oct 3 | Chattanooga | W 14-3 | — | — | — | +0.033 | 32.4% | 1.25 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Western Carolina | W 58-31 | — | — | — | +0.507 | 59.5% | 1.24 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | West Georgia | W 35-27 | — | — | — | +0.218 | 42.2% | 1.27 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @North Carolina | L 3-35 | 255 | 2 | 33:44 | −0.171 | 43.3% | 0.60 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Tusculum | W 48-14 | — | — | — | +0.526 | 55.2% | 1.52 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Campbell | L 37-49 | — | — | — | +0.267 | 46.8% | 1.29 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 255 | 2.0 | +0.197 | 45.5% | 1.17 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · East Tennessee State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 2%; 7 wins 22%; 8 wins 47%; 9 wins 29%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southern teams the same season
East Tennessee State is the SoCon program that won it all in 2021 then vanished — a 2016 reinstatement story trying to prove the breakthrough wasn't a one-hit wonder.
East Tennessee State is the SoCon program that won it all in 2021 then vanished — a 2016 reinstatement story trying to prove the breakthrough wasn't a one-hit wonder.
Range of outcomes · East Tennessee State · 2026