Campbell upsets East Tennessee State 49-37
Team pages: Campbell · East Tennessee State
Campbell beat East Tennessee State 49-37 as a 7-point underdog. Share this game
Next: Campbell beat Western Carolina 28-19, Sun Sep 6
Next: East Tennessee State beat Tusculum 48-14, Sat Sep 5
How it swung
The turning point: Sixkiller 30-yd TD pass to Austin, Campbell goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 12:07). Campbell went from 27% to 48% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Campbell a 21% chance, and the closing betting line (Campbell was a 7-point underdog) put it at 29%.
Campbell 49-37 East Tennessee State
Campbell wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.East Tennessee State 37-49 CampbellEast Tennessee State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:07Sixkiller 30-yd TD pass to Austin, Campbell goes ahead 7-0Campbell 27% → 48% (+21)
- 2Q2 12:4224-yd puntCampbell 32% → 16% (−16)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:07Sixkiller 30-yd TD pass to Austin, Campbell goes ahead 7-0East Tennessee State 73% → 52% (−21)
- 2Q2 12:4224-yd puntEast Tennessee State 68% → 84% (+16)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (East Tennessee State -7), at 23% for Campbell (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Campbell scored on 7 of its 12 drives; East Tennessee State on 6 of its 12.
Campbell’s drives are teal, East Tennessee State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From East Tennessee State’s side
East Tennessee State’s best moment: 24-yd punt (Q2 12:42). It lifted East Tennessee State’s win chance by 16 points.
The winner fell to 9%.
Box score
Campbell 49, East Tennessee State 37
Campbell covered +7 by 19. The total, 86, went over 56.5.
Campbell leaders
- Passing Kamden Sixkiller 29 of 42, 343 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Kamden Sixkiller 10 for 95 yds, 2 TD; Jon Gullette 5 for 36 yds
- Receiving Evan Austin 4 for 93 yds, 1 TD; Aaryn Tate 4 for 55 yds
East Tennessee State leaders
- Passing Mason Mims 33 of 41, 373 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing TJ Peyton 15 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Jaiden Daniels 5 for 39 yds
- Receiving Suderian Harrison 5 for 99 yds; Xavier Gaillardetz 3 for 59 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Campbell · 2-10
Rated 239th in our preseason ratings.
L 31-35 @ Towson #188 of 667
lost by 4 as an 8.5-point underdog
L 24-31 vs Elon #186 of 667
lost by 7 as a 4-point underdog
L 27-30 vs William & Mary #179 of 667
lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 24-28 @ North Carolina A&T #245 of 667
lost by 4 as a 3-point favorite
L 10-24 vs New Hampshire #175 of 667
lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 38-21 @ Hampton #256 of 667
won by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 10-56 @ NC State #43 of 667
lost by 46 as a 41.5-point underdog
L 35-42 vs Western Carolina #182 of 667
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 50-48 vs Bryant #200 of 667
won by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 24-28 vs Furman #212 of 667
lost by 4 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 3-56 @ East Carolina #75 of 667
lost by 53 as a 30.5-point underdog
L 20-31 @ Rhode Island #142 of 667
lost by 11 as an 11.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
East Tennessee State · 7-5
Rated 125th in our preseason ratings.
W 28-26 vs The Citadel #205 of 667
won by 2 as an 11.5-point favorite
W 52-35 @ Western Carolina #164 of 667
won by 17 as a 6-point underdog
W 38-14 @ Samford #251 of 667
won by 24 as an 18.5-point favorite
W 14-10 vs Wofford #175 of 667
won by 4 as a 9-point favorite
L 38-42 @ Chattanooga #200 of 667
lost by 4 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 45-10 vs VMI #262 of 667
won by 35 as a 16.5-point favorite
L 22-31 @ Furman #169 of 667
lost by 9 as a 0.5-point underdog
L 34-38 vs Mercer #136 of 667
lost by 4 as a 2-point underdog
W 26-16 vs Elon #165 of 667
won by 10 as a 2-point favorite
L 31-35 @ West Georgia #203 of 667
lost by 4 as a 5.5-point underdog
L 17-72 @ TennesseeTop 25 #9 of 667
lost by 55 as a 40.5-point underdog
W 45-17 vs Murray State #253 of 667
won by 28 as a 31-point favorite
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on East Tennessee State’s chances here.
East Tennessee State favored by 7 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
East Tennessee State by 7, on the usual path until Q3 0:28
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The total rose 1 point.
Total: 55.5 → 56.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
East Tennessee State is worth +15.4 points (±6.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
50% at home, 9% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 1-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.1 at home vs. away over 51 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 213 miles to get here.