Campbell beats Western Carolina 28-19
Team pages: Western Carolina · Campbell
Campbell beat Western Carolina 28-19. Share this game
We had Campbell favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Campbell a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Campbell was a 4-point underdog) put it at 37%.
A tight one: Campbell bottomed out at 44% and won.
Western Carolina never had better than a 56% chance.
Campbell 28-19 Western Carolina
Campbell wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Western Carolina 19-28 CampbellWestern Carolina lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:25Sixkiller 6-yd TD pass to Ambrose, Campbell goes ahead 7-0Campbell 55% → 69% (+14)
- 2Q4 2:00Lawrence run for a 3-yd lossCampbell 93% → 82% (−11)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:25Sixkiller 6-yd TD pass to Ambrose, Campbell goes ahead 7-0Western Carolina 45% → 31% (−14)
- 2Q4 2:00Lawrence run for a 3-yd lossWestern Carolina 7% → 18% (+11)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Western Carolina -4), at 44% for Campbell (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Campbell scored on 4 of its 13 drives; Western Carolina on 4 of its 13.
Campbell’s drives are teal, Western Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Western Carolina’s side
Western Carolina’s best moment: Lawrence run for a 3-yd loss (Q4 2:00). It lifted Western Carolina’s win chance by 11 points.
Box score
Campbell 28, Western Carolina 19
Campbell covered +4 by 13. The total, 47, stayed under 68.5.
Western Carolina leaders
- Passing Lex Thomas 25 of 44, 326 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Derrick Davis Jr. 3 for 6 yds; Marlin Cochran 3 for 5 yds
- Receiving AJ Colombo 6 for 91 yds; Matthew Keener 4 for 53 yds
Campbell leaders
- Passing Kamden Sixkiller 29 of 44, 330 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing JJ Cowan 11 for 83 yds; Ethan Lawrence 14 for 67 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Spencer Jones 7 for 126 yds, 1 TD; Brady Ambrose 3 for 52 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Western Carolina · 7-5
Rated 197th in our preseason ratings, 197th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 48-6 @ VMI #285 of 667
won by 42 as a 25.5-point favorite
L 35-52 vs East Tennessee State #128 of 667
lost by 17 as a 6-point favorite
L 47-49 vs Mercer #94 of 667
lost by 2 as an 8-point underdog
W 35-28 @ Chattanooga #185 of 667
won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 45-38 @ The Citadel #203 of 667
W 52-7 vs Furman #190 of 667
won by 45 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 23-21 @ Wofford #196 of 667
won by 2 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 42-35 @ Campbell #243 of 667
won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 50-35 vs Samford #208 of 667
won by 15 as a 10.5-point favorite
L 31-37 vs Elon #172 of 667
lost by 6 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 10-42 @ Wake Forest #81 of 667
lost by 32 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 45-52 vs Gardner-Webb #183 of 667
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Campbell · 2-10
Rated 239th in our preseason ratings, 239th now.
Three straight losses.
L 31-35 @ Towson #188 of 667
lost by 4 as an 8.5-point underdog
L 24-31 vs Elon #186 of 667
lost by 7 as a 4-point underdog
L 27-30 vs William & Mary #179 of 667
lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 24-28 @ North Carolina A&T #245 of 667
lost by 4 as a 3-point favorite
L 10-24 vs New Hampshire #175 of 667
lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 38-21 @ Hampton #256 of 667
won by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 10-56 @ NC State #43 of 667
lost by 46 as a 41.5-point underdog
L 35-42 vs Western Carolina #182 of 667
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 50-48 vs Bryant #200 of 667
won by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 24-28 vs Furman #212 of 667
lost by 4 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 3-56 @ East Carolina #75 of 667
lost by 53 as a 30.5-point underdog
L 20-31 @ Rhode Island #142 of 667
lost by 11 as an 11.5-point underdog
Week by week
Campbell
- Wk 1Wat East Tennessee State49-37
Western Carolina
- Wk 1Wvs Eastern Kentucky45-21
The series
The series is tied 1-1
2 meetings since 2024 · Western Carolina won the last meeting
- 2025Western Carolina 42-35
- 2024Campbell 24-16
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Campbell’s chances here.
Western Carolina favored by 4 · Total 68.5
How games like this usually go
Western Carolina by 4, on the usual path until Q1 15:00
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Home field
Campbell is worth +5.3 points (±7.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 71st percentile.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-4 home, 0-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.4 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 250 miles to get here.