The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Wofford 45%, Samford 58%
Win out 20% · expect 1.8 of 3 more wins
Western Carolina's chance to win each game left, from our model: Wofford 45%, Samford 58%, The Citadel 76%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Lex Thomas 2,154 · Rushing Josh Perry 499 · Receiving AJ Colombo 491 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Eastern Kentucky | W 45-21 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Thomas 320 · Rush Thomas 69 · Rec Rossin 94 |
| 1 | Sep 6 | @Campbell | L 19-28 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Thomas 326 · Rush Davis Jr. 6 · Rec Colombo 91 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Cincinnati | L 10-62 137 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Thomas 165 · Rush Cochran 25 · Rec Young 49 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Presbyterian | W 58-14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Thomas 268 · Rush Perry 142 · Rec Boyd 103 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @East Tennessee State | L 31-58 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Thomas 163 · Rush Thomas 52 · Rec Colombo 60 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Tennessee Tech | W 44-20 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Thomas 236 · Rush Perry 157 · Rec Colombo 60 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Mercer | L 14-17 | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Thomas 215 · Rush Perry 50 · Rec Boyd 76 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Chattanooga | L 18-41 | 3-5 | 1-3 | Pass Thomas 266 · Rush Perry 30 · Rec Carlos 75 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Furman | W 27-26 | 4-5 | 2-3 | Pass Thomas 195 · Rush Hollis 36 · Rec Boyd 83 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Wofford | 1 pm ET45% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Samford | 3:30 pm ET58% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | The Citadel | 1 pm ET76% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Western Carolina, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Furman | W 27-26 | — | — | — | −0.096 | 34.7% | 1.25 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Chattanooga | L 18-41 | — | — | — | −0.023 | 38.2% | 1.06 | |
| Oct 10 | @Mercer | L 14-17 | — | — | — | +0.040 | 38.0% | 1.14 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | Tennessee Tech | W 44-20 | — | — | — | +0.243 | 44.9% | 1.20 | |
| Sep 26 | @East Tennessee State | L 31-58 | — | — | — | +0.140 | 41.8% | 1.21 | |
| Sep 19 | Presbyterian | W 58-14 | — | — | — | +0.442 | 55.2% | 1.14 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Cincinnati | L 10-62 | 241 | 1 | 27:23 | +0.001 | 37.9% | 1.02 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 6 | @Campbell | L 19-28 | — | — | — | +0.060 | 40.6% | 1.03 | |
| Aug 29 | Eastern Kentucky | W 45-21 | — | — | — | +0.263 | 39.0% | 1.69 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | 241 | 1.0 | +0.119 | 41.2% | 1.19 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Western Carolina · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 6%; 5 wins 30%; 6 wins 45%; 7 wins 20%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southern teams the same season
Western Carolina is 4-5 and hosts Wofford next.
Western Carolina is 4-5 and hosts Wofford next.
Range of outcomes · Western Carolina · 2026