The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Bryant 58%, Towson 67%
Win out 29% · expect 2.0 of 3 more wins
Rhode Island's chance to win each game left, from our model: New Hampshire 75%, Towson 67%, Bryant 58%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Tyler Budge 863 · Rushing Brendon Barrow 262 · Receiving Marquis Buchanan 870 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | @Merrimack | W 34-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Budge 128 · Rush Barrow 56 · Rec Buchanan 72 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Temple | L 14-38 61 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Budge 195 · Rush Barrow 39 · Rec Buchanan 137 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Elon | W 31-10 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Budge 178 · Rush Barrow 46 · Rec Kwarteng 57 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Stony Brook | L 24-56 | 2-2 | 1-1 | Pass Budge 209 · Rush Barrow 49 · Rec Buchanan 124 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @North Carolina A&T | L 18-22 | 2-3 | 1-2 | Pass McClelland 119 · Rush Campbell 85 · Rec Buchanan 35 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Brown | W 13-10 | 3-3 | 1-2 | Pass McClelland 83 · Rush Winowich 85 · Rec Buchanan 90 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Yale | W 41-23 | 4-3 | 1-2 | Pass McClelland 285 · Rush McClelland 92 · Rec Buchanan 193 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | UAlbany | L 21-38 | 4-4 | 1-3 | Pass McClelland 185 · Rush McClelland 51 · Rec Buchanan 87 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Maine | W 14-13 | 5-4 | 2-3 | Pass McClelland 110 · Rush Richardson 92 · Rec Buchanan 107 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @New Hampshire | 1 pm ET75% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Towson | 12 pm ET67% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Bryant | 1 pm ET58% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Rhode Island, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Maine | W 14-13 | — | — | — | −0.167 | 21.8% | 1.51 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | UAlbany | L 21-38 | — | — | — | +0.039 | 47.8% | 1.10 | Best success rate |
| Oct 17 | @Yale | W 41-23 | — | — | — | +0.414 | 31.2% | 2.55 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Brown | W 13-10 | — | — | — | −0.067 | 39.5% | 0.89 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | @North Carolina A&T | L 18-22 | — | — | — | −0.086 | 38.8% | 1.14 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | @Stony Brook | L 24-56 | — | — | — | +0.008 | 35.1% | 1.58 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | Elon | W 31-10 | — | — | — | +0.016 | 30.9% | 1.23 | |
| Sep 5 | @Temple | L 14-38 | — | — | — | −0.023 | 38.7% | 1.18 | |
| Aug 28 | @Merrimack | W 34-7 | — | — | — | +0.083 | 39.7% | 0.99 | |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.024 | 35.9% | 1.35 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Rhode Island · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 3%; 6 wins 22%; 7 wins 45%; 8 wins 29%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Coastal Athletic teams the same season
Rhode Island is 5-4 and plays at New Hampshire next.
Rhode Island is 5-4 and plays at New Hampshire next.
Range of outcomes · Rhode Island · 2026