The rest of the season
One real test left: Campbell 30%
Win out 22% · expect 2.0 of 3 more wins
Stony Brook's chance to win each game left, from our model: Campbell 30%, New Hampshire 77%, Hampton 98%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Quinn Boyd 2,359 · Rushing C.J. Hester 672 · Receiving Seth Sweitzer 778 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @Delaware State | L 34-41 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Boyd 323 · Rush Hester 91 · Rec Sweitzer 81 |
| 1 | Sep 3 | Lindenwood | W 36-32 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Boyd 298 · Rush Hester 95 · Rec Sweitzer 157 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Ball State | L 17-41 68 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Boyd 147 · Rush Coney 89 · Rec Sweitzer 50 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Rhode Island | W 56-24 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Boyd 198 · Rush Boyd 153 · Rec Dely 89 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Fordham | W 31-16 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Boyd 209 · Rush Hester 135 · Rec Linkins 81 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Towson | W 31-24 | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Boyd 175 · Rush Boyd 57 · Rec Dely 64 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | UAlbany | L 31-48 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Boyd 412 · Rush Boyd 45 · Rec Sweitzer 190 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Bryant | W 27-17 | 5-3 | 3-1 | Pass Boyd 264 · Rush Hester 61 · Rec Sweitzer 122 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Sacred Heart | L 31-32 | 5-4 | 3-2 | Pass Boyd 333 · Rush Hester 62 · Rec Linkins 138 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Campbell | 1 pm ET30% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @New Hampshire | 1 pm ET77% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Hampton | 12 pm ET98% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Stony Brook, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Sacred Heart | L 31-32 | — | — | — | +0.055 | 41.2% | 1.40 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | @Bryant | W 27-17 | — | — | — | +0.051 | 31.0% | 1.40 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | UAlbany | L 31-48 | — | — | — | +0.200 | 46.1% | 1.39 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 10 | @Towson | W 31-24 | — | — | — | +0.160 | 31.8% | 1.51 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | @Fordham | W 31-16 | — | — | — | +0.227 | 53.5% | 0.99 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | Rhode Island | W 56-24 | — | — | — | +0.456 | 53.1% | 1.28 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Ball State | L 17-41 | — | — | — | −0.037 | 36.9% | 1.33 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 3 | Lindenwood | W 36-32 | — | — | — | +0.232 | 46.9% | 1.19 | One-score win |
| Aug 27 | @Delaware State | L 34-41 | — | — | — | +0.114 | 36.4% | 1.48 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.162 | 41.9% | 1.33 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
We’re far from where we want to be, but at the end of the day it’s a work in progress
Range of outcomes · Stony Brook · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 17%; 7 wins 60%; 8 wins 22%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Coastal Athletic teams the same season
Stony Brook went 0-10 in 2023, hired Billy Cosh, went 8-4 the next year, and finished 6-6 in 2025 — the Seawolves are the most dramatic FCS turnaround story in recent memory, still figuring out whether the Cosh era is a rebuild or the beginning of something real.
Stony Brook went 0-10 in 2023, hired Billy Cosh, went 8-4 the next year, and finished 6-6 in 2025 — the Seawolves are the most dramatic FCS turnaround story in recent memory, still figuring out whether the Cosh era is a rebuild or the beginning of something real.
Range of outcomes · Stony Brook · 2026