Stony Brook at Ball State
Fan take
Stony Brook fans
Ball State fans
How they got here
Last two games
Stony Brook · 1-1
Picked #166 in the preseason · now #182.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 36–32 vs Lindenwood #181 of 669
won by 4 as a 4-point favorite
L 34–41 @ Delaware State #192 of 669
lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Ball State · 4-8
Picked #161 in the preseason · now #85 — better than expected.
Three straight losses.
L 24–45 @ Miami (OH) #65 of 668
lost by 21 as a 16.5-point underdog
L 9–38 @ Toledo #27 of 668
lost by 29 as a 28.5-point underdog
L 9–24 vs Eastern Michigan #141 of 668
lost by 15 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 17–13 vs Kent State #227 of 668
won by 4 as a 3-point favorite
L 7–21 @ Northern Illinois #170 of 668
lost by 14 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 42–28 vs Akron #183 of 668
won by 14 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 0–42 @ Western Michigan #69 of 668
lost by 42 as a 9.5-point underdog
W 20–14 vs Ohio #69 of 668
won by 6 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 25–31 @ UConn #71 of 668
lost by 6 as a 20.5-point underdog
W 34–29 vs New Hampshire #171 of 668
won by 5 as a 3-point favorite
L 3–42 @ AuburnTop 25 #46 of 668
lost by 39 as a 42.5-point underdog
L 0–31 @ Purdue #220 of 668
lost by 31 as a 16.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
Stony Brook
- Stony Brook needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Stony Brook is still shaking off a 24-point loss.
Ball State
- Ball State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2020.
The series
Ball State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · Ball State won the last meeting
- 2026Ball State 41–17
Best players
Ball State
- Kaleb Stewart (LB) · 10 tackles
- Quentavius Scandrett (DB) · 9 tackles
- Stu Smith (DB) · 9 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Ball State’s chances here.
Home −13.5 · O/U 52.5
Conditions
77°F · 7 mph wind · Rain
Ball State is worth +7.2 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 93rd percentile.
49% at home, 26% on the road against FBS opponents (18–19 home, 12–35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.6 at home vs. away over 73 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 646 miles to get here.
Stony Brook 17 – Ball State 41
Called it — picked Ball State to win.
Recent games
Ball State
- Wk 1Lat Ohio State3-56
Stony Brook
- Wk 1Lat Delaware State34-41
- Wk 1Wvs Lindenwood36-32
Trajectory
Ball State handled Stony Brook 41-17, matching the pregame favorite.