Kent State

1-1

Mid-American · Mark Carney, year 2 (6-8) · Dix Stadium · 25,319 · 7,887 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#115 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #137 (-27.5) · FPI #136
The marketOhio State by 53at Ohio State · our model 2% Kent State · a number, not a pick

LastW 36–15 vs Wofford · Sat Sep 12 · Jaihien Roy 1 sacks, 1 TFL, 1 INT

Nextat Ohio State · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Ohio Stadium · Ohio State by 53 · series 0-3, lost the last 3 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Kent State · 2026 schedule & results1-1
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 5#122#16+35.5@South CarolinaL 0–57 1200-10-0
2Sep 12#113#198-10WoffordW 36–15 1251-10-0
3Sep 19#132#1+53@Ohio State
4Sep 26#132#159Ball State
5Oct 3Ohio
6Oct 10@Western Michigan
7Oct 17@South Florida
8Oct 24Akron
9Oct 31@Sacramento State
11Nov 11@Bowling Green
12Nov 18Miami (OH)
13Nov 25@Eastern Michigan
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 12WoffordW 36–15448337:22+0.21741.1%130.6%
Sep 5@South CarolinaL 0–57179125:13-0.03826.5%146.1%
Season average (2 games)3142.0+0.09033.8%138.4%
Verdict Begins·Live

Kent State went 1-23 across two seasons, fired its coach, and turned to the guy already on staff -- who won five games in one year and took the Wagon Wheel back from Akron in overtime to prove it.

Standard GapThe Dustin Crum era (2019-2021, first-ever bowl win, three straight .500…

Kent State fans have watched the program get written off as a MAC afterthought during the 1-23 stretch -- and answered with a coach promoted from the same staff that presided over it, turning the rost…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 5-7 · last season

Game feel55shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 13 in the Mid-American
Heart rate4-2white-knucklein one-score games (6 of 12)3rd most one-score games of 13 in the Mid-American
Margin-12.3outgunnedavg scoring margin11th best margin of 13 in the Mid-American
Tempo57methodicaloffensive plays / game13th fastest of 13 in the Mid-American
Big plays1.38highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)1st most explosive of 13 in the Mid-American
Home crowd9,875avg attendance9th biggest crowds of 13 in the Mid-American

✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Kent State has won three of its last five.

Mixed. 5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 5-5
The forecast

Next Sep 19

vs Ohio State · away

PoorExplosive, big-playPoor

~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

CFP championship#134 in field+100000
MAC title#11 in market+3500

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14

Kent State · the story right now 5 storylines developing

What Kent State's identity shift is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

identitythis cycle~readnew

Mark Carney's 5-7 turnaround capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron offers a rare spark for a program mired in a 1-23 slide across 2023-2024.

what happenedKent State: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

coaching2025 cycle~readnew

Carney, who led a 5-7 turnaround at Kent State, inherits an 11% production return and a program that’s been through three coaches in five years — the churn defines the challenge, not his credentials.

what happenedMark Carney took over as Kent State's head coach, replacing Kenni Burns. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons

our readdeveloping

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Gavin Garcia does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.

our readbackground

program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew

Kent State enters 2025 at No. 130 in SP+ — Mark Carney's first season faces bottom-quintile production returning and a 5-7 record as the baseline.

what happenedKent State enters 2025 rated No. 130 in SP+ (-19.3). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season

our readbackground

coordinators2025 cycle✓ factnew

Kent State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

AnsweredKent State's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downKent State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downKent State's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Outcome band · Kent State · 2026

Kent State's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.

Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Kent State · Season outlook Confidence

Kent State is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.

Kent State enters 2026 rated No. 130 in 2025 SP+ (-19.3). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 19% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Kent State enters 2026 — the 5-7 record and bottom-quintile returning production highlight the steep climb ahead for Mark Carney in his first season at the helm.
Source of record: Kent State enters 2026 rated No. 130 in 2025 SP+ (-19.3) — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards thin
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.

“Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden Flashes - NCAAF Game Summary - Sep 12, 2026”
USA Today · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Coach Mark Carney on Kent State football's win over Wofford | Video”
Akron Beacon Journal · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Kent State football coach Mark Carney on win over Wofford | Video”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards9 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 9 of 48 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"Stupid 1st half... wofford ain't a bad fcs team. I'll take it Kent State 1 State of South Carolina 1"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"I know this game isn't over. But I'm happy with Kent's season. 4 wins with an interim coach and a roster that was considered to be the worst in FBS. And we got the wagon wheel back"
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Following now · Kent State · Developing Confidence

Kent State: the fanbase's identity shifting.

Kent State: the fanbase's identity shifting.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 19% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Mark Carney's 5-7 turnaround capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron offers a rare spark for a program mired in a 1-23 slide across 2023-2024.
Source of record: Kent State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards thin
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden Flashes - NCAAF Game Summary - Sep 12, 2026”
USA Today · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Coach Mark Carney on Kent State football's win over Wofford | Video”
Akron Beacon Journal · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Kent State football coach Mark Carney on win over Wofford | Video”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards9 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 9 of 48 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"Stupid 1st half... wofford ain't a bad fcs team. I'll take it Kent State 1 State of South Carolina 1"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"I know this game isn't over. But I'm happy with Kent's season. 4 wins with an interim coach and a roster that was considered to be the worst in FBS. And we got the wagon wheel back"
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Rival pulse

Akron
Hopeful
+20
Wagon Wheel

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Kent State went 1-23 across 2023-2024, fired Kenni Burns in April 2025, and turned to interim-then-permanent head coach Mark Carney -- who led a 5-7 turnaround with more wins in one season than the previous two combined, capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron in an overtime thriller.

Offense: PoorTempo: Explosive, big-playDefense: Poor
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025Hired Mark Carney
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Kent State

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15
Returning Production64%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#130 nationally247 composite 522.8
Portal Additions11Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses15Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#122Depth class
LBin 4 - Hayden Dawahare3.40out 2 - Nylan Brown3.50Need Filled
current room: 213 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 3 - Jakorion Caffey3.30out 1 - Gavin Garcia3.49Need Filled
current room: 198 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 1 - Javier Willis3.30out 2 - Cade Wolford4.00Downgrade
current room: 172 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 1 - Davion Pritchard3.40out 2 - Jaire Rawlinson3.50Downgrade
current room: 177 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 1 - Ethan Thanthanavong3.30out 2 - CJ Montes3.40Downgrade
current room: 204 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 0out 2 - Junior Diallo3.40Starter Risk
Full roster (111 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Kent State

2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Kickoff specialist named starter

    Beamer locks in Sanchez as the kicker for a #122-ranked class that can't afford dead weight at any spot — depth pressure at OT already, so getting a starter-tier answer on special teams without burning a scholarship matters more than it sounds.

  2. News

    Stephen Daley returns to Indiana football

    Daley's injunction win sends him back to Bloomington — Kent State loses a blocking anchor from a depth class already ranked #122 nationally and sweating OT pressure heading into 2026.

Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

-14.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: -14.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
OT
-6.7
starter risk
LB
+6.3
need filled
WR
-4.4
IOL
-3.6
low confidence
CB
-3.6
EDGE
-3.4
low confidence
QB
-3.4
S
+3.2
low confidence
RB
+2.8
need filled
K
-1.0
low confidence
P
-1.0
low confidence
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Daiveon Taylor
LB · Aliquippa, PA
#1474 national
★★★☆☆
Lennox Lemon
CB · Massillon, OH
#1654 national
★★★☆☆
Zymir Reed
WR · Middletown, OH
#1846 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

18
OH · 13PA · 2IN · 1MD · 1MO · 1

OH leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

79 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMI1NYMAORNVWYSDIAIL7IN4OH40PA7NJ6CTCAUTCO1NEMO1KY1WV1VA2MD4DERIAZNMKS2ARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGA2AKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

That is 7.2% of every high-school FBS signee OH produced over those cycles — second only to Ohio State, 3 signees back. The full map →

Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Kent State player grew up 167 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

11th-closest to home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%41–309 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi36%38 of 106 players
Farthest2,119 miEzekiel Castex · Sacramento, CA
Closest3 miGavin Peeps · Kent, OH

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Dix Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 106 of 111 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns OH · 2026 roster

54% of the Kent State roster grew up in OH.

59 of 110 players, drawn from 21 states in all. That is the 22nd-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

OH · 59PA · 10IL · 6MI · 5MD · 4NJ · 4KY · 3CA · 2+13 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

110 players across 21 states. Biggest pull outside OH: PA (10).

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMN1WIMI5NY1MAORNVWYSDIA1IL6IN2OH59PA10NJ4CTCA2UTCO1NEMO1KY3WV2VA1MD4DE1RIAZ1NMKS1ARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGA2AKHITXFL2
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 1 listed player fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and is excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Kent State Defeats UMass 42-6
172 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Game Thread] UMass @ Kent State (2:30 PM ET)
23 upvotes · Oct 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2022 class: 0 drafted so far, 44% never transferred. D
See the class →
Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
2nd
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
3.5
Vegas O/U wins
(3rd among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 1 book
PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

The penalty battle is a wash: 13 penalties committed vs. 12 drawn on opponents.

90 penalty yards committed vs. 95 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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