The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Western Michigan 17%, Central Michigan 56%
Win out 6% · expect 1.4 of 3 more wins
Eastern Michigan's chance to win each game left, from our model: Central Michigan 56%, Western Michigan 17%, Kent State 70%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 74% to 49%, peaking at 80% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the Mid-American · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Noah Kim 1,678 · Rushing Amareon Blue 405 · Receiving Joshua Long 383 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #92 | #131 | −9.5✓ +1.5 | Sacramento State | W 28-17 131 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Kim 279 · Rush Blue 55 · Rec Prosper 81 |
| 1 | Sep 4 | #92 | #151 | −1.5✗ −7.5 | San José State | L 21-27 145 | 1-1 | 1-0 | Pass Kim 174 · Rush Blue 81 · Rec Mack 72 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #101 | #157 | +17.5✗ −10.5 | @Michigan State | L 7-35 123 | 1-2 | 1-0 | Pass Kim 118 · Rush Bennett 56 · Rec Mack 49 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #122 | #89 | +23.5✗ −20.5 | @Wisconsin | L 10-54 123 Roaring | 1-3 | 1-0 | Pass Kim 140 · Rush Mattord 36 · Rec Devereaux 38 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #142 | #188 | −24.5✓ +1.5 | Lindenwood | W 29-3 121 | 2-3 | 1-0 | Pass Kim 257 · Rush Blue 58 · Rec Prosper 109 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #147 | #135 | +5.5✓ +29.5 | @Massachusetts | W 38-14 121 | 3-3 | 2-0 | Pass Kim 219 · Rush Blue 66 · Rec Mack 49 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #127 | #116 | −4.5✗ −2.5 | @Akron | W 25-23 137 | 4-3 | 3-0 | Pass Kim 277 · Rush Mattord 73 · Rec Long 114 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #120 | #51 | +7.5✗ −12.5 | Toledo | L 14-34 141 | 4-4 | 3-1 | Pass Kim 214 · Rush Blue 23 · Rec Long 84 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #143 | #55 | +11.5✓ +7.5 | @Ohio | L 20-24 121 | 4-5 | 3-2 | Pass McCaughey 197 · Rush Blue 67 · Rec Mattord 55 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | #135 | #127 | −1.5 | Central Michigan (N) | 7:30 pm ET · ESPN256% to win | |||
| 11 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 12 | Nov 17 | @Western Michigan | 7 pm ET17% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 24 | Kent State | 7 pm ET70% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Eastern Michigan, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Eastern Michigan: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @Ohio | L 20-24 | 307 | 1 | 32:32 | -0.094 | 34.3% | 1.09 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | Toledo | L 14-34 | 276 | 2 | 26:25 | -0.229 | 27.8% | 1.53 | Most explosive |
| Oct 10 | @Akron | W 25-23 | 413 | 2 | 35:35 | +0.137 | 45.6% | 1.04 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Massachusetts | W 38-14 | 411 | 0 | 34:35 | +0.338 | 53.5% | 1.16 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Lindenwood | W 29-3 | 396 | 0 | 31:28 | +0.288 | 44.3% | 1.28 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | @Wisconsin | L 10-54 | 216 | 3 | 28:43 | -0.305 | 28.1% | 1.13 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Michigan State | L 7-35 | 219 | 1 | 28:39 | +0.045 | 43.4% | 0.85 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 4 | San José State | L 21-27 | 281 | 1 | 30:08 | -0.028 | 29.0% | 1.10 | One-score loss |
| Aug 29 | Sacramento State | W 28-17 | 348 | 1 | 32:28 | +0.055 | 41.4% | 1.26 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 319 | 1.2 | +0.023 | 38.6% | 1.16 | ||||
Eastern Michigan's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Eastern Michigan MAC championship odds lengthened, from 9.5% to 5.1% (down 4.4 points) between Oct 18 and Oct 19, 2026.
Statusbackground
Range of outcomes · Eastern Michigan · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 11%; 5 wins 42%; 6 wins 41%; 7 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Eastern Michigan has never reached a MAC Championship Game and hasn't won a title since 1987 -- and produced a two-time Super Bowl champion and a five-time Pro Bowler who became the first active NFL player ever named a college football assistant GM, at his own alma mater.
Eastern Michigan gets talked about as one of the toughest jobs in college football, a program that can't break through -- while quietly producing a two-time Super Bowl champion and a $106.5 million…
Eastern Michigan · Game-day weather
Typical at Rynearson Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 7:30 pm Saturdays 84
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 110 at noon, 111 at 3:30 pm, 110 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Eastern Michigan hasn't won a MAC title since 1987 and has never once reached the MAC Championship Game -- but it produced Charlie Batch (15 NFL seasons, two Super Bowl rings) and Maxx Crosby, who in 2025 became the first active NFL player ever named assistant general manager of a college football program, at his own alma mater.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
0th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Eastern Michigan · 2026