money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Joshua Long isn't a money-down weapon -- his 3rd-down conversion rate lags the position, and his per-target value drops further in that spot.
our readdeveloping
Eastern Michigan
1-2Latest
Mid-American · Chris Creighton, year 13 (62-85) · Rynearson Stadium · 30,200 · 7,523 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#108 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #122 (-15.6) · FPI #133
The marketWisconsin by 23.5at Wisconsin · our model 25% Eastern Michigan · a number, not a pick
LastL 7–35 at Michigan State · Sat Sep 12 · Quincy Byas 1 sacks, 1 TFL, 4 tackles
Nextat Wisconsin · Sat Sep 19 · 12:30 pm ET · Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin by 23.5 · series 0-4, lost the last 4 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Eastern Michigan · 2026 schedule & results1-2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #92 | #131 | -9✓ | Sacramento State | W 28–17 131 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| 1 | Sep 4 | #92 | #151 | -1.5✗ | San José State | L 21–27 145 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #101 | #158 | +17.5✗ | @Michigan State | L 7–35 123 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #119 | #89 | +23.5 | @Wisconsin | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #124 | #182 | Lindenwood | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Massachusetts | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Akron | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Toledo | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Ohio | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | Central Michigan (N) | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 18 | @Western Michigan | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 25 | Kent State |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Michigan State | L 7–35 | 219 | 1 | 28:39 | +0.087 | 43.4% | 94.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 4 | San José State | L 21–27 | 281 | 1 | 30:08 | -0.028 | 29.0% | 110.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Sacramento State | W 28–17 | 348 | 1 | 32:28 | +0.055 | 41.4% | 126.0% | Most explosive |
| Season average (3 games) | 283 | 1.0 | +0.038 | 37.9% | 110.4% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Eastern Michigan has never reached a MAC Championship Game and hasn't won a title since 1987 -- and produced a two-time Super Bowl champion and a five-time Pro Bowler who became the first active NFL player ever named a college football assistant GM, at his own alma mater.
Title DroughtSince 1987 · 39 yrs
Eastern Michigan gets talked about as one of the toughest jobs in college football, a program that can't break through -- while quietly producing a two-time Super Bowl champion and a $106.5 million NF…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Eastern Michigan fans
r/CFB
▲ 89 · 2d ago
Michigan State fans on Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 4-8 · last season
Game feel54shootoutscombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 13 in the Mid-American
Heart rate3-3some dramain one-score games (6 of 12)4th most one-score games of 13 in the Mid-American
Margin-5.7competitiveavg scoring margin9th best margin of 13 in the Mid-American
Tempo66average paceoffensive plays / game6th fastest of 13 in the Mid-American
Big plays1.25some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)5th most explosive of 13 in the Mid-American
Home crowd14,842avg attendance6th biggest crowds of 13 in the Mid-American
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Eastern Michigan has won two of its last five.
Cooling. 4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Streak L2Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Wisconsin · away
PoorPass-first, spreadSolid
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#138 in field+100000
MAC title#6 in market+1200
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Eastern Michigan · the story right now
8 storylines developing
What Eastern Michigan's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
money down2025 cycle✓ factnew
Nick Devereaux is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
Dontae McMillan: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Harold Mack is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Jamarien Wheeler is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Joshua Long is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Nick Devereaux is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Eastern Michigan enters 2025 at No. 119 in SP+ — Chris Creighton's sixth season opens with a losing record and middling talent rank, raising the question of structural progress.
what happenedEastern Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 119 in SP+ (-14.7). ✓ fact
our readbackground
Outcome band · Eastern Michigan · 2026
Outcome band · Eastern Michigan · 2026Eastern Michigan's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Eastern Michigan · Season outlook Confidence
Eastern Michigan enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Eastern Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 119 in SP+ (-14.7). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
💬 fans: 14% volume
The saga so far~7 months old
Jul 16EMU hires co-defensive coordinators — Official
Feb 20QB Brogan McCaughey transfer commits from Yale — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Eastern Michigan enters 2025 at No. 119 in SP+ — Chris Creighton's sixth season opens with a losing record and middling talent rank, raising the question of structural progress.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Eastern Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 119 in SP+ (-14.7).
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“V-Cast: Michigan State has plenty to clean up after solid, but not spectacular win over EMU”
On3 CFB · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Beaudrie Lands Five Aces in Loss at Oakland”
Eastern Michigan University Athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Big second half pushes Michigan State past EMU in lopsided win”
detroitnews.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards14% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 19 of 132 board posts (14%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Eastern has a solid defense, so the few missteps on MSU's offense isn't extremely worrying, but allowing EMU to have as many rushing yards in the first half as they had against San"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Title should be Eastern Michigan defeats Eastern Michigan against San Jose State."
r/CFB ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
Western Michigan
Uneasy-19
Michigan MAC Trophy (WMU-EMU)
Central Michigan
Bearish-23
Michigan MAC Trophy (EMU-CMU)
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Eastern Michigan hasn't won a MAC title since 1987 and has never once reached the MAC Championship Game -- but it produced Charlie Batch (15 NFL seasons, two Super Bowl rings) and Maxx Crosby, who in 2025 became the first active NFL player ever named assistant general manager of a college football program, at his own alma mater.
Offense: PoorRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Solid
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Eastern Michigan
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production72%High continuity
Talent Composite#103 nationally247 composite 580.6
Portal Additions12Primary repair: OT
Portal Losses26Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#106Depth class
RBin 3 - Braydon Bennettout 2 - James JointerEven
current room: 207 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Back2024 profiledoes a little of everything without one standout trait
Full roster (115 players)
DBAntonio Solares-Vitti, Bryce Llewellyn, Caleb Coley, Caleb Dobbs, Davion Williams, Davontey Oliver, Dior Boyd, Donmiel Rogers, Eli Lovett, Fa'Rel Carter, Horace Glenn III, Jabari Monds, Jaivian Norman, Jason Marshall, Jonnie Carter, Jordan Toney, Juan Salas, Marty Collins, Ray Hester, Rayquan Adkins, Tylan Boykin
DLAlijah Lacey, Antoniyo Smith, Brandon Simmons Jr., CJ McCoy, Carter Evans, Hector Gonzalez, Jahbarri Frost, Javon Thomas, Jefferson Adam, Joseph Oluwayemi, Kevin Wojciechowski, Makhi Gilbert, Mark Debiak, Marvell Eggleston, Milan Colvin, Noah Patterson, Owen Edlen, Peyton Christian, Quincy Byas, RJ Alphonse, Reggie Gardner, Ronn Hardin, Warren-Stevens Tayou
LBAaron Kearse, Barry Manning, Bryce Eliuk, Colin Main, Elgin McDuffey, Jonah Flowers, Kadin Bailey, Kijon Braxton, Noah Knigga, Solomon Bell, Zach Mowchan
OLAdham Abouraya, Andrew Trahin, Carter Miculka, Chad Troxler, Cole Dellinger, Cole Powell, Dennis Strey Jr., Elijha Payne, Guzzy Kayed, Jackson Higgins, Joshua Anderson, Nathan Henry, Nicholas Gallegos, Nily Taylor, Richardo Wourman, Samuel Adjin, Tyler Brumfield, Tyler McMillan
RBAmareon Blue, Braydon Bennett, Decorie Johnson, Joey Mattord, Malachi James, Nazir Jones-Davis, XaVior Tyus
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Eastern Michigan
3 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Coaching
EMU hires co-defensive coordinators
Creighton splits the DC chair instead of handing it to one voice — pressure at CB already headlining the depth concerns, and a #97 class rank doesn't exactly scream 'the cavalry is coming.'
- Portal
QB Brogan McCaughey transfer commits from Yale
Ivy passer to MAC — McCaughey is a graduate transfer with starts banked, real competition arm.
- News
EMU promotes Teegardin to assistant HC
Teegardin's bump to assistant HC is Creighton doubling down on continuity while the roster is thin at corner and the class sits at #105 — not a splashy fix, but a bet that trust in-house beats chasing outside blood.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-15.2 net portal points
(raw ledger: -37.7 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB-14.5
starter risk
LB-10.0
starter risk
EDGE-9.9
starter risk
IOL-8.1
starter risk
TE-5.5
starter risk
RB+4.2
WR-3.5
low confidence
QB+3.3
low confidence
OT+3.2
K+2.0
low confidence
DL+1.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
RJ Alphonse
#1474 national
★★★☆☆
Fa'Rel Carter
#1846 national
★★★☆☆
Nazir Jones-Davis
#1881 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
38
FL · 8GA · 4MI · 4OH · 4IN · 3MS · 3NJ · 2PA · 2+8 more
FL leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 16 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
118 signees across 24 states, 2023-2026. MI leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Eastern Michigan player grew up 424 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
33rd-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%112–886 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi24%26 of 110 players
Farthest1,983 miAdon Turner · Chico, CA
Closest2 miAdam Samaha · Ypsilanti, MI
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Rynearson Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 110 of 115 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Buffalo Defeats Eastern Michigan 31-30 (OT)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Belief history
↑
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
75th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
75th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Fans 49pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
Deflections without payoff: 10% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
2 interceptions of 20 disrupted passes (18 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
The flags have favored them: 27 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 11 committed, 141 yards to the good.
76 penalty yards committed vs. 217 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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