Ohio beats Eastern Michigan 24-20
Team pages: Eastern Michigan · Ohio
Ohio beat Eastern Michigan 24-20. Share this game
We had Ohio favored. It won.
Next: Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan, Wed Nov 4
Next: Ohio at Akron, Tue Nov 3 · 7:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: James-Hamilton 100-yd kickoff return TD, Ohio goes ahead 24-20 (Q4, 3:40). Ohio went from 33% to 89% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.
Down to 33% in the fourth quarter, Ohio came back to win.
Up to 67% in the fourth quarter, then Eastern Michigan lost it.
Ohio · Q1 5:48Kickoff return TDOhio · Q4 3:40Ohio 24-20 Eastern Michigan
Ohio wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Eastern Michigan 20-24 OhioEastern Michigan lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:53McCaughey 24-yd TD pass to Mattord, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 20-17Ohio 84% → 33% (−51)
- 2Q4 3:40Special teamsJames-Hamilton 100-yd kickoff return TD, Ohio goes ahead 24-20Ohio 33% → 89% (+56)
- 3Q4 0:32PenaltyMcCaughey incomplete to O-UOhio 69% → 95% (+26)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:53McCaughey 24-yd TD pass to Mattord, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 20-17Eastern Michigan 16% → 67% (+51)
- 2Q4 3:40Special teamsJames-Hamilton 100-yd kickoff return TD, Ohio goes ahead 24-20Eastern Michigan 67% → 11% (−56)
- 3Q4 0:32PenaltyMcCaughey incomplete to O-UEastern Michigan 31% → 5% (−26)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Ohio -11.5), at 87% for Ohio (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Ohio scored on 3 of its 10 drives; Eastern Michigan on 4 of its 13.
Ohio’s drives are teal, Eastern Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Eastern Michigan’s side
Eastern Michigan’s best moment: McCaughey 24-yd TD pass to Mattord, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 20-17 (Q4 3:53). It lifted Eastern Michigan’s win chance by 51 points.
What it cost
Ohio’s chance to win the conference rose from 27% to 31%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Eastern Michigan plays vs Central Michigan on Wed Nov 4 with a 1% chance to win the conference. Ohio plays at Akron on Tue Nov 3 with a 31% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Ohio 24, Eastern Michigan 20
Eastern Michigan covered +11.5 by 7.5. The total, 44, stayed under 48.5.
| Team totals | Eastern Michigan | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 307 | 356 |
| Passing | 27 of 39, 197 yds | 19 of 29, 266 yds |
| Rushing | 28 for 110 yds | 25 for 90 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 17 |
| Third down | 2 of 15 | 3 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 6 for 35 yds | 3 for 25 yds |
| Time of possession | 32:32 | 27:28 |
Eastern Michigan leaders
- Passing Brogan McCaughey 27 of 39, 197 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Amareon Blue 11 for 67 yds; Joey Mattord 3 for 24 yds
- Receiving Joey Mattord 7 for 55 yds, 1 TD; Tanner Lemaster 1 for 34 yds
Ohio leaders
- Passing Nick Poulos 19 of 29, 266 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Victor Rosa 4 for 40 yds; Nick Poulos 9 for 22 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Dom Dorwart 4 for 125 yds, 1 TD; Riley Neer 5 for 56 yds
No rain through the game
67° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Peden Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Albany airport, 10 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Eastern Michigan · 4-4
Rated 92nd in our preseason ratings, 143rd now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 24-point win over Massachusetts as a 5.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Ohio · 5-2
Rated 50th in our preseason ratings, 55th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 29-27 vs Jacksonville State No. 63 of 668 teams
won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite
Week by week
Ohio
- Wk 3Lat South Alabama36-41
- Wk 4Wvs Stonehill35-7
- Wk 5Wat Kent State13-10
- Wk 6Wvs Central Michigan31-14
- Wk 7Wat Sacramento State48-7
Eastern Michigan
- Wk 3Lat Wisconsin10-54
- Wk 4Wvs Lindenwood29-3
- Wk 5Wat Massachusetts38-14
- Wk 6Wat Akron25-23
- Wk 7Lvs Toledo14-34
Power rating by week
Ohio is rated 7.6 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Ohio’s success rate against Eastern Michigan, 56 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ohio’s explosive plays against Eastern Michigan’s defense
Ohio offense, 13th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 62nd
Ohio’s success rate against Eastern Michigan’s defense
Ohio offense, 77th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 21st
Ohio’s passing EPA against Eastern Michigan’s defense
Ohio offense, 55th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 11th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Ohio leads the series 22-12-1
35 meetings since 1976 · Ohio has won the last 4
- 2025Ohio 28-21
- 2024Ohio 35-10
- 2021Ohio 34-26
- 2017Ohio 27-20
- 2016Eastern Michigan 27-20
Each line is Ohio’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Ohio fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (31st percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Ohio favored by 11.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
Ohio by 11.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Ohio.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −9.5 → −11.5 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Ohio is worth +5.1 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 66th percentile.
78% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (31-9 home, 22-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 218 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Ohio 27, Eastern Michigan 20Sep 23, 2017
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Ohio1st3-0
- Eastern Michigan5th3-1