Eastern Michigan at Michigan State
Fan take
Eastern Michigan fans
How they got here
Last two games
Eastern Michigan · 1-1
Picked #92 in the preseason · now #109.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 21–27 vs San José State #120 of 669
lost by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 28–17 vs Sacramento State #133 of 669
won by 11 as a 9-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Michigan State · 4-8
Picked #178 in the preseason · now #124 — better than expected.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 38–28 vs Maryland #112 of 668
won by 10 as a 4-point favorite
L 17–20 @ IowaTop 25 #28 of 668
lost by 3 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 10–28 vs Penn StateTop 25 #13 of 668
lost by 18 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 20–23 @ Minnesota #62 of 668
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 20–31 vs MichiganTop 25 #18 of 668
lost by 11 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 13–38 @ IndianaTop 25 #5 of 668
lost by 25 as a 26.5-point underdog
L 13–38 vs UCLA #67 of 668
lost by 25 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 27–38 @ NebraskaTop 25 #37 of 668
lost by 11 as a 12.5-point underdog
L 31–45 @ USCTop 25 #25 of 668
lost by 14 as a 18.5-point underdog
W 41–24 vs Youngstown State #201 of 668
won by 17 as a 23.5-point favorite
W 42–40 vs Boston College #61 of 668
won by 2 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 23–6 vs Western Michigan #67 of 668
won by 17 as a 21.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Eastern Michigan
- Eastern Michigan needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility — 66% to get there with a win here, 40% with a loss.
- Eastern Michigan is still shaking off a 28-point loss.
Michigan State
- Michigan State is coming off a 28-point win.
The series
Michigan State leads the series 8-0
8 meetings since 1996 · Michigan State has won the last 8
- 2026Michigan State 35–7
- 2014Michigan State 73–14
- 2012Michigan State 23–7
- 2008Michigan State 42–10
- 2006Michigan State 52–20
Best players
Eastern Michigan
- Zach Mowchan (LB) · 30 tackles
- Jason Marshall (DB) · 20 tackles
- Rayquan Adkins (DB) · 17 tackles
Michigan State
- Camryn Edwards (RB) · 250 rushing yards
- Brady Pretzlaff (LB) · 13 tackles
- Devin Vaught (S) · 13 tackles
The line, and the room
Eastern Michigan fans are feeling better about their season (91st percentile) than Michigan State fans are (44th) — even with Michigan State favored here.
- Model · 56%
- Market · 92%
- Michigan State fans · 44th
- Eastern Michigan fans · 91st
Home −17.5 · O/U 49.5
Conditions
82°F · 13 mph wind · Cloudy
Michigan State is worth +2.6 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile.
56% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (27–21 home, 13–26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -8.0 at home vs. away over 71 games — outside the ±5.8 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 54 miles to get here.
Eastern Michigan 7 – Michigan State 35
Called it — picked Michigan State to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 21:07 — 7 comments, 3.5× its usual pace.
comments / minute
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 18:30–23:33 UTC (378 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- BoxThe line
Jason Marshall (Eastern Michigan): 13 tackles
Top 1% tackles game since 2021.
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
Michigan State
- Wk 1Wvs Toledo30-20
Eastern Michigan
- Wk 1Wvs Sacramento State28-17
- Wk 1Lvs San José State21-27
Trajectory
Michigan State won 35-7, as picked pregame.