Michigan State at Notre Dame
Michigan State (2‑0) at Notre Dame (#3, 2‑0) — Notre Dame is favored by 30. The model gives Notre Dame a 98% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Michigan State · 2-0
Picked #170 in the preseason · now #157 — better than expected.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 35–7 vs Eastern Michigan #119 of 669
won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 30–20 vs Toledo #49 of 669
won by 10 as a 10-point favorite
What’s at stake
Michigan State
- Michigan State is coming off a 28-point win.
Notre Dame
- Notre Dame sits at 68% to make the CFP field — 69% with a win here, 49% with a loss.
- Notre Dame is coming off a 52-point win.
The series
Notre Dame leads the series 44-28-1
73 meetings since 1899 · Notre Dame won the last meeting
- 2017Notre Dame 38–18
- 2016Michigan State 36–28
- 2013Notre Dame 17–13
- 2012Notre Dame 20–3
- 2011Notre Dame 31–13
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Michigan State
The chip · vs big brotherThe fanbase measures itself against the program 60 miles west and savors every upset of it — the conviction that Michigan State is at its truest when it walks in unranked and walks out with the rivalry trophy.
What this game touches
The Smith firing. Michigan State went 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) in 2025 — a 3-0 start that collapsed into eight straight losses before a season-ending win — and fired Jonathan Smith after two seasons at 9-15. It hired former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald the next day: another reset for a program still searching for stable ground since the Dantonio peak.
Notre Dame
The chip · vs the committeeThe fanbase's read is simple and bitter: ten straight wins were worth less than a Week 1 result the committee chose to weight, and a program with no conference title to wave gets judged on a standard the leagues never have to meet. They say the snub wasn't an accident — it was the price of going it alone.
What this game touches
The 2025 Playoff snub. Notre Dame opened 0-2, then won ten straight — many in routs, including a home win over a ranked USC — and finished No. 11 at 10-2. The committee gave the final at-large bid to Miami on the head-to-head from the Week 1 opener; Notre Dame declined a non-Playoff bowl rather than treat the leftover as a reward.
Best players
Michigan State
- Camryn Edwards (RB) · 250 rushing yards
- Brady Pretzlaff (LB) · 13 tackles
- Devin Vaught (S) · 13 tackles
Notre Dame
- C.J. Carr (QB) · 492 passing yards
- Jaiden Ausberry (LB) · 12 tackles
- Jordan Faison (WR) · 135 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 118th (+50000)
The line, and the room
Notre Dame fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (69th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Home −30 · O/U 52
Conditions
83°F · 11 mph wind
Notre Dame is worth +3.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 38th percentile.
88% at home, 79% on the road against FBS opponents (46–6 home, 27–7 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.3 at home vs. away over 66 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 114 miles to get here.
Recent games
Notre Dame
- Wk 1Wvs Wisconsin41-13
- Wk 2Wvs Rice52-0
Michigan State
- Wk 1Wvs Toledo30-20
- Wk 2Wvs Eastern Michigan35-7