The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Rutgers 50%
Win out <1% · expect 0.9 of 4 more wins
Michigan State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Michigan 15%, Washington 18%, Oregon 9%, Rutgers 50%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 11% to <1%, peaking at 36% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 17th in the Big Ten · 0-5 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Alessio Milivojevic 1,263 · Rushing Jaziun Patterson 327 · Receiving Chrishon Mccray 289 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #170 | #48 | −10= | Toledo | W 30-20 124 Loud | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Milivojevic 247 · Rush Edwards 98 · Rec Bullard Jr. 90 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #157 | #101 | −17.5✓ +10.5 | Eastern Michigan | W 35-7 123 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Milivojevic 170 · Rush Edwards 152 · Rec Taplin 65 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #154 | #2 | +28.5✓ +11.5 | @Notre Dame | L 10-27 112 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Milivojevic 123 · Rush Edwards 38 · Rec Bullard Jr. 66 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #132 | #33 | +6✗ −12 | Nebraska | L 13-31 128 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Milivojevic 208 · Rush Patterson 54 · Rec Mccray 47 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #125 | #66 | +8.5✗ −19.5 | @Wisconsin | L 3-31 141 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass Milivojevic 103 · Rush Patterson 62 · Rec Savoury 26 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #139 | #68 | +2.5✓ +1.5 | Illinois | L 37-38 124 Firestorm | 2-4 | 0-3 | Pass Milivojevic 196 · Rush Patterson 93 · Rec Savoury 49 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #132 | #14 | +7.5✓ +4.5 | Northwestern | L 21-24 128 | 2-5 | 0-4 | Pass Milivojevic 216 · Rush Patterson 72 · Rec Mccray 64 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #124 | #19 | +16.5✗ −1.5 | @UCLA | L 10-28 133 | 2-6 | 0-5 | Pass Hannan 67 · Rush Williams 54 · Rec Mccray 42 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #123 | #30 | +13.5 | @Michigan | 7:30 pm ET15% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #126 | #31 | Washington | time TBA18% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 20 | Oregon | 8 pm ET · FOX9% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Rutgers | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Michigan State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Michigan State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @UCLA | L 10-28 | 156 | 3 | 24:02 | -0.355 | 28.6% | 1.07 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Northwestern | L 21-24 | 305 | 1 | 25:05 | +0.021 | 43.9% | 1.11 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | Illinois | L 37-38 | 342 | 1 | 26:08 | +0.455 | 50.9% | 1.30 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Wisconsin | L 3-31 | 235 | 0 | 31:10 | -0.330 | 36.7% | 0.73 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | Nebraska | L 13-31 | 257 | 3 | 29:41 | -0.146 | 46.7% | 0.94 | |
| Sep 19 | @Notre Dame | L 10-27 | 167 | 2 | 22:58 | -0.105 | 37.5% | 1.10 | |
| Sep 12 | Eastern Michigan | W 35-7 | 472 | 1 | 31:21 | +0.299 | 54.8% | 1.16 | Best success rate |
| Sep 4 | Toledo | W 30-20 | 397 | 0 | 43:16 | +0.023 | 37.6% | 1.10 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 291 | 1.4 | -0.017 | 42.1% | 1.06 | ||||
Michigan State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last six.
Sources: Michigan State starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic (undisclosed) is not expected top play at No. 9 UCLA today
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Fitzgerald, who led Northwestern to a 9-4 record, inherits a 4-8 roster at Michigan State — the program that beat Michigan when nobody else thought to, now tasked with steadying.
Statusdeveloping
Jonathan Smith's first full season at Michigan State ended with a 4-8 record, but the win total projection climbs to 4.5 in his second year.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Michigan State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 32%; 3 wins 47%; 4 wins 18%; 5 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Pat Fitzgerald took over as Michigan State's head coach, replacing Jonathan Smith. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is thin so far, and the story is still developing.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 181 of 10668 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (758 posts): 13% positive · 39% neutral · 48% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-6
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Michigan State is the program that knocks off the giant down the road when no one sees it coming — and is now on its third coach of the decade, betting Pat Fitzgerald can rebuild the chip into a contender again.
The fanbase measures itself against the program 60 miles west and savors every upset of it — the conviction that Michigan State is at its truest when it walks in unranked and walks out with the…
Michigan State · Game-day weather
Typical at Spartan Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 85 to 88
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Michigan State is the program that beat Michigan when nobody else thought to.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
4Pat Fitzgerald replaces Jonathan Smith as Michigan State's head coach.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Michigan State · 2026