UCLA 28-10 Michigan State (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Michigan State · UCLA

Michigan State2-610

No. 9 UCLA7-028Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif. · Crowd 33,757

No. 9 UCLA beat Michigan State 28-10.

We had UCLA favored. It won.

Next: Michigan State at Michigan, Sat Nov 7 · Michigan State underdog by 16.5

Next: UCLA vs Nevada, Sat Oct 31 · 4:15 PM ET · UCLA favored by 22.5

Well at least we had a little fun

A Michigan State fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UCLA a 96% chance, and the closing betting line (UCLA was a 16.5-point favorite) put it at 91%.

Favored the whole way: UCLA never fell below 61%.

Michigan State never had better than a 39% chance.

28 unanswered

UCLA · Q2 3:04

FinalUCLA 28-10 Michigan StateUCLA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 13:01FumbleWilliams run for a 10-yd loss, fumblesUCLA 64% → 77% (+13)
2Q2 5:36InterceptionCoffman intercepted by Pellot at the UCLA 12, returned 67 yardsUCLA 77% → 89% (+12)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 13:01FumbleWilliams run for a 10-yd loss, fumblesMichigan State 36% → 23% (−13)
2Q2 5:36InterceptionCoffman intercepted by Pellot at the UCLA 12, returned 67 yardsMichigan State 23% → 11% (−12)

for those keeping track at home, the offenses have outgained the defenses about 230 yards to 180

Q2 6:10 · A UCLA fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 6:09Vaught forces fumble from Woods, returns it 56 yards for Michigan State touchdownBecause of a dropped screen pass and a fumble by the same RB?r/CFB game thread
Q2 6:10Pellot intercepts Coffman, returns it 67 yards as UCLA takes the leadYeah, UCLA, not so easy to return it for a TD, is it?r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:20UCLA fans panic as Dieffenbach is injured, fearing Madden must startEveryone is dyingr/CFB game thread

UCLA’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (UCLA -16.5), at 90% for UCLA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UCLA or Michigan State flair (390 and 416); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show UCLA’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

UCLA scored on 4 of its 13 drives; Michigan State on 2 of its 13.

UCLA’s drives are teal, Michigan State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Michigan State’s side

Michigan State’s best moment: Thomas 9-yd run, fumbles (Q2 6:23). It lifted Michigan State’s win chance by 10 points.

How Michigan State fans took it: “UCLA is a good team all around” r/CFB game thread

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

What it cost

UCLA’s chance to make the playoff rose from 38% to 40%.

Make the playoff

Michigan State · lost0% → 0%

UCLA · won38% → ▲40%

Win the conference

Michigan State · lost0% → 0%

UCLA · won16% → ▲18%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

UCLA plays vs Nevada on Sat Oct 31 with a 40% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

UCLA 28, Michigan State 10

UCLA covered −16.5 by 1.5. The total, 38, stayed under 43.5.

Team totals	Michigan State	UCLA
Total yards	156	443
Passing	13 of 25, 109 yds	18 of 31, 198 yds
Rushing	29 for 47 yds	48 for 245 yds
First downs	11	25
Third down	2 of 11	6 of 16
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 2
Turnovers	3	2
Penalties	9 for 79 yds	6 for 60 yds
Time of possession	24:02	35:58

Michigan State leaders

Passing Leo Hannan 9 of 15, 67 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Kenneth Williams 17 for 54 yds; Marvis Parrish 2 for 9 yds
Receiving Chrishon Mccray 3 for 42 yds; Bryson Williams 1 for 19 yds

UCLA leaders

Passing Ty Dieffenbach 18 of 31, 198 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Anthony Woods 14 for 112 yds, 1 TD; Wayne Knight 15 for 56 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Brian Rowe Jr. 3 for 74 yds, 1 TD; Semaj Morgan 7 for 70 yds

55° at the start

55° at kickoff · rain amounts not reported at this airport

Colder than 9 in 10 of the 70 other games played at Rose Bowl since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 73°, with about 7 in 10 games between 65° and 82°.

October game-day temperatures at Rose Bowl

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left12:38 p.m.

Michigan State 0, UCLA 0 · UCLA 90% to win

56°

Parrish 5-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Mount Wilson airport, 7.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Michigan State · 2-5

Rated 170th in our preseason ratings, 124th now, up 46 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 21-24 vs NorthwesternTop 25 No. 16 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 37-38 vs Illinois No. 78 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 3-31 @ WisconsinTop 25 No. 52 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 13-31 vs Nebraska No. 28 of 668 teams

lost by 18 as a 6-point underdog

L 10-27 @ Notre DameTop 25 No. 3 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 28.5-point underdog

W 35-7 vs Eastern Michigan No. 122 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 30-20 vs Toledo No. 50 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 10-point favorite

Last three games

UCLA · 6-0

Rated 62nd in our preseason ratings, 19th now, up 43 spots.

Three straight wins, including a 2-point win over Oregon as a 10-point underdog.

W 17-7 vs WisconsinTop 25 No. 49 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 17-15 @ OregonTop 25 No. 8 of 668 teams

won by 2 as a 10-point underdog

W 54-3 @ Maryland No. 76 of 668 teams

won by 51 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 52-38 vs Purdue No. 123 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 28-10 vs San Diego State No. 45 of 668 teams

won by 18 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 45-24 @ California No. 63 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite

Week by week

UCLA

Wk 2Wvs San Diego State28-10
Wk 3Wvs Purdue52-38
Wk 4Wat Maryland54-3
Wk 6Wat Oregon17-15
Wk 7Wvs Wisconsin17-7

Michigan State

Wk 3Lat Notre Dame10-27
Wk 4Lvs Nebraska13-31
Wk 5Lat Wisconsin3-31
Wk 6Lvs Illinois37-38
Wk 7Lvs Northwestern21-24

Power rating by week

UCLA is rated 12.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Michigan State’s explosive plays against UCLA, 93 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Michigan State’s EPA/play against UCLA’s defense
Michigan State offense, 9th percentile · UCLA defense, 100th
Michigan State’s explosive plays against UCLA’s defense
Michigan State offense, 1st percentile · UCLA defense, 94th
Michigan State’s passing EPA against UCLA’s defense
Michigan State offense, 10th percentile · UCLA defense, 99th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Michigan StateUCLA

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

UCLA leads the series 4-3

7 meetings since 1953 · UCLA has won the last 3

2025UCLA 38-13
1974UCLA 56-14
1973UCLA 34-21
1965Michigan State 13-3
1965 · neutral siteUCLA 14-12

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

UCLA fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (50th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

UCLA favored by 16.5 · Total 43.5

How games like this usually go

UCLA by 16.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 263 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward UCLA.

The total fell 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UCLA has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.1 points (±3.9), home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.

50% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (26-26 home, 21-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.6 at home vs. away over 98 games — outside the ±6.2 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 1,902 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

UCLA2nd4-0
Michigan State16th0-4

Full Big Ten standings

No. 9 UCLA beats Michigan State 28-10