Michigan State at Michigan
Usual during the game: 41°, between 31° and 49° in about 7 in 10 games.
Airport reading near the stadium31 games since 2016 · How we measure
Michigan (5‑3) hosts Michigan State (2‑6). The market has Michigan favored by 13.5. The model gives Michigan a 85% shot. Michigan State’s offense is at the 8th percentile on efficiency; Michigan’s defense is at the 96th.
This is Paul Bunyan Trophy — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
Michigan State · 2-6
Rated 170th in our preseason ratings, 123rd now, up 47 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Michigan · 5-3
Rated 19th in our preseason ratings, 30th now, down 11 spots.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Michigan State’s EPA/play against Michigan, 88 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Michigan State’s EPA/play against Michigan’s defense
Michigan State offense, 8th percentile · Michigan defense, 96th
Michigan State’s passing EPA against Michigan’s defense
Michigan State offense, 14th percentile · Michigan defense, 96th
Michigan State’s explosive plays against Michigan’s defense
Michigan State offense, 2nd percentile · Michigan defense, 32nd
What’s at stake
Michigan State
- Michigan State has dropped 4 straight in Paul Bunyan Trophy — a chance to snap the skid.
Michigan
- Michigan needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 78% with a loss.
- Michigan has won 4 straight in Paul Bunyan Trophy — a chance to extend it.
The series
Michigan leads the series 75-38-5
118 meetings since 1898 · Michigan has won the last 4
- 2025Michigan 31-20
- 2024Michigan 24-17
- 2023Michigan 49-0
- 2022Michigan 29-7
- 2021Michigan State 37-33
Each line is Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Michigan is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Michigan State
The chip · vs big brotherThe fanbase measures itself against the program 60 miles west and savors every upset of it — the conviction that Michigan State is at its truest when it walks in unranked and walks out with the rivalry trophy.
What this game touches
The Smith firing. Michigan State went 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) in 2025 — a 3-0 start that collapsed into eight straight losses before a season-ending win — and fired Jonathan Smith after two seasons at 9-15. It hired former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald the next day: another reset for a program still searching for stable ground since the Dantonio peak.
Michigan
The chip · vs the national mediaThe fanbase has heard for two years that the 2023 title carries an asterisk and that Michigan is a story the rest of the sport gets to narrate; Michigan Men say the ledger answers all of it, and that the program that has done this longer than anyone doesn't need the panels' permission.
Best players
Michigan State
- Devin Vaught (S) · 54 tackles
- Dion Crawford (LB) · 48 tackles
- Nikai Martinez (DB) · 38 tackles
Michigan
- Troy Bowles (LB) · 57 tackles
- JJ Buchanan (WR) · 602 receiving yards
- Chris Bracy (S) · 50 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Alessio Milivojevic (QB) — Michigan State’s leading passer (1,263 passing yards) takes on Michigan’s pass defense (96th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 3.0 points toward Michigan State since opening (−16.5 → −13.5).
The total has moved down 11.0 points since opening (50.5 → 39.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Michigan fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (12th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Michigan favored by 13.5 · Total 39.5
Michigan by 13.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Michigan’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Michigan Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 7:30 pm Saturdays 84
Michigan State at Michigan · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 pm ET · Michigan Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Michigan Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 84.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 84, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Michigan is worth +4.1 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 49th percentile.
85% at home, 68% on the road against FBS opponents (50-9 home, 26-12 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 49 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Michigan
- Wk 4Lvs Iowa19-20
- Wk 5Lat Minnesota14-20
- Wk 7Wvs Penn State21-18
- Wk 8Lvs Indiana6-13
- Wk 9Wat Rutgers28-21
Michigan State
- Wk 4Lvs Nebraska13-31
- Wk 5Lat Wisconsin3-31
- Wk 6Lvs Illinois37-38
- Wk 7Lvs Northwestern21-24
- Wk 8Lat UCLA10-28
Power rating by week
Michigan is rated 10.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Michigan State.
The total fell 11 points.
Spread: −16.5 → −13.5 · Total: 50.5 → 39.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Michigan13th2-3
- Michigan State17th0-5
Last meeting in our History pages
- Michigan 31, Michigan State 20Oct 25, 2025
Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.