No. 6 Indiana beats Michigan 13-6 in overtime
No. 6 Indiana beat Michigan 13-6 in overtime. Share this game
We had Indiana favored. It won.
Next: Indiana vs Minnesota, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Indiana favored by 20.5
Next: Michigan at Rutgers, Sat Oct 31 · 12:30 PM ET · Michigan favored by 14
Top comment in the game thread
dear god the worst game I've sat through and watched is going to overtime.
How it swung
The turning point: Carr 9-yd pass to Hansen (OT). Indiana went from 42% to 95% to win. Fans right then: “dear god the worst game I've sat through and watched is going to overtime.” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Indiana an 81% chance, and the closing betting line (Indiana was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.
The edge changed hands 4 times before Indiana won it.
The edge changed hands 4 times and Michigan came out on the wrong end.
Indiana 13-6 Michigan
Indiana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Michigan 6-13 IndianaMichigan lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1OTHiter run for a 4-yd lossIndiana 76% → 42% (−34)
- 2OTCarr 9-yd pass to HansenIndiana 42% → 95% (+53)
The two plays that swung it
- 1OTHiter run for a 4-yd lossMichigan 24% → 58% (+34)
- 2OTCarr 9-yd pass to HansenMichigan 58% → 5% (−53)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q4 0:25Michigan kicks a field goal to tie the game 6-6 and force overtimeSame comment as the top reaction.
The overtime that nobody wants but everyone deserves
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Indiana -7.5), at 65% for Indiana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Michigan or Indiana flair (83 and 67); both sides share one scale, regulation only.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Indiana’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q2, 11:28T.Carr pass intercepted by A.Ferrell at U-M40 broken up by A.Harris A.Ferrell return 19 yards…Q2, 11:28 · Indiana 3, Michigan 0▲13%Indiana’s chance to win, 68% to 81%▲13%Indiana’s chance to win, 68% to 81%▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q3, 3:48J.Hoover pass intercepted by Z.Berry at U-M50 Z.Berry return 37 yards to the IU 13Q3, 3:48 · Indiana 6, Michigan 0▼15%Indiana’s chance to win, 83% to 68%▼15%Indiana’s chance to win, 83% to 68%▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q4, 14:52Hoover sacked for a 3-yd lossQ4, 14:52 · Indiana 6, Michigan 3▼3%Indiana’s chance to win, 78% to 75%▼3%Indiana’s chance to win, 78% to 75%▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q4, 0:25Carr sacked for a 5-yd lossQ4, 0:25 · Indiana 6, Michigan 36-3score after the play6-3score after the play▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- OvertimeHoover 4-yd TD runIndiana goes ahead 13-6Overtime · Indiana 13, Michigan 6▲6%Indiana’s chance to win, 70% to 76%▲6%Indiana’s chance to win, 70% to 76%▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Every drive
Indiana scored on 3 of its 12 drives; Michigan on 2 of its 13.
Indiana’s drives are teal, Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Michigan’s side
Michigan’s best moment: Hiter run for a 4-yd loss (OT). It lifted Michigan’s win chance by 34 points.
How Michigan fans took it: “Beck deserves to be taken to the barn and shot.” r/CFB game thread
Two crowds, one game
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Indiana fans
hoover“**Josh Hoover activated his ult** **The Ult:** *Throw 1 accurate pass 1 time.*”
Michigan fans
beck“Beck has to be on the spectrum to run outside play after play after play after play and lose 5 yards EVERY SINGLE TIME”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, god, throw, end.
What it cost
Indiana’s chance to make the playoff rose from 23% to 32%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Indiana plays vs Minnesota on Sat Oct 31 with a 32% chance to make the playoff. Michigan plays at Rutgers on Sat Oct 31 with a 1% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Indiana 13, Michigan 6
Michigan covered +7.5 by 0.5. The total, 19, stayed under 43.5.
| Team totals | Indiana | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 212 | 224 |
| Passing | 8 of 18, 81 yds | 20 of 32, 167 yds |
| Rushing | 35 for 131 yds | 42 for 57 yds |
| First downs | 11 | 16 |
| Third down | 4 of 14 | 6 of 20 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 6 for 50 yds | 1 for 15 yds |
| Time of possession | 26:16 | 33:44 |
Indiana leaders
- Passing Josh Hoover 8 of 18, 81 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Turbo Richard 19 for 68 yds; Lee Beebe 12 for 56 yds
- Receiving Charlie Becker 3 for 32 yds; Nick Marsh 2 for 25 yds
Michigan leaders
- Passing Tommy Carr 20 of 32, 167 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Jordan Marshall 12 for 26 yds; Savion Hiter 10 for 15 yds
- Receiving JJ Buchanan 6 for 57 yds; Hogan Hansen 4 for 34 yds
No rain through the game
no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Michigan Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Ann Arbor airport, 2.9 miles away, and Detroit/willow airport, 11 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Indiana · 6-1
Rated 8th in our preseason ratings, 3rd now.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Michigan · 4-2
Rated 19th in our preseason ratings, 29th now.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Week by week
Michigan
- Wk 2Wvs Oklahoma17-10
- Wk 3Wvs UTEP52-17
- Wk 4Lvs Iowa19-20
- Wk 5Lat Minnesota14-20
- Wk 7Wvs Penn State21-18
Indiana
- Wk 3Wvs Western Kentucky38-0
- Wk 4Wvs Northwestern29-23
- Wk 5Wat Rutgers47-15
- Wk 6Wat Nebraska20-17
- Wk 7Lvs Ohio State15-19
Power rating by week
Indiana is rated 7.6 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Michigan’s EPA/play against Indiana, 70 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Michigan’s EPA/play against Indiana’s defense
Michigan offense, 22nd percentile · Indiana defense, 92nd
Michigan’s passing EPA against Indiana’s defense
Michigan offense, 24th percentile · Indiana defense, 84th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Michigan leads the series 62-11
73 meetings since 1900 · Indiana won the last meeting
- 2024Indiana 20-15
- 2023Michigan 52-7
- 2022Michigan 31-10
- 2021Michigan 29-7
- 2020Indiana 38-21
Each line is Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Michigan is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Indiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (68th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Indiana favored by 7.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
Indiana by 7.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 416 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Indiana.
The total fell 9 points.
Spread: +6 → +7.5 · Total: 52.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Michigan is worth +4.0 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.
85% at home, 68% on the road against FBS opponents (50-9 home, 25-12 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 258 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Michigan 27, Indiana 20Oct 14, 2017
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2015.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.