deep threatthis cycle✓ factnew
Charlie Becker is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
our readdeveloping
Indiana
2-0AP #4Latest
Big Ten · Curt Cignetti, year 3 (29-2) · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 52,656 · 54,434 avg in 2026
The nationAP #4 · Coaches #4up 1 from last week
The model#9 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #6 (+24.1) · FPI #6
The marketIndiana by 44vs Western Kentucky · our model 92% Indiana · a number, not a pick
LastW 55–0 vs Howard · Sat Sep 12 · Josh Hoover 145 pass yds, 4 TD, 18 rush yds
Nextvs Western Kentucky · Sat Sep 19 · 4 pm ET · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana by 44 · series 5-0, won the last 5 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Indiana · 2026 schedule & results2-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #8 | #135 | -40.5✗ | North Texas | W 52–16 113 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #8 | #236 | -57.5✗ | Howard | W 55–0 109 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #9 | #52 | -44 | Western Kentucky | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #9 | #11 | Northwestern | ||||
| 5 | Oct 4 | @Rutgers | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Nebraska | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Ohio State | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Michigan | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Minnesota | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | USC | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Washington | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Purdue |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Howard | W 55–0 | 505 | 1 | 33:36 | +0.572 | 54.8% | 152.4% | |
| Sep 5 | North Texas | W 52–16 | 365 | 0 | 22:38 | +0.654 | 52.2% | 164.0% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 435 | 0.5 | +0.613 | 53.5% | 158.2% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Indiana is the reigning national champion — a sentence a century-long basketball school still has no muscle memory for saying.
AP Poll#4 AP
The same voices who called 2024 a fluke and 2025 a soft schedule are still waiting for Indiana to fall back to earth. Cignetti's answer — roughly, 'I win, look it up' — became the fanbase's whole post…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Indiana fans
Indiana fans
r/CFB
▲ 1581 · 1w ago
North Texas fans on Indiana
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 16-0 · last season
Game feel53even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 18 in the Big Ten
Heart rate4-0some dramain one-score games (4 of 16)9th most one-score games of 18 in the Big Ten
Margin+29.9comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 18 in the Big Ten
Tempo66uptempooffensive plays / game3rd fastest of 18 in the Big Ten
Big plays1.24some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)5th most explosive of 18 in the Big Ten
Home crowd51,184avg attendance13th biggest crowds of 18 in the Big Ten
✓ measured from 16 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Indiana has won five straight.
Hot. 10-0 over the last 10, and won the last ten.
Streak W10Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 10-0
I owe you an apology, because the position we placed you in Saturday was not your doing and it was not your coaches’
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Western Kentucky · at home
Season line10.5 winsover -115
EliteRun-heavy, ground-controlElite
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total1 booksO/U 10.5
CFP championship#6 in field+800
Big Ten title#2 in market+225
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Indiana · the story right now
11 storylines developing
What Indiana's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
money down2025 cycle✓ factnew
Elijah Sarratt is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
governance shockthis cycle~readnew
Curt Cignetti, in his third season at Indiana, faces the challenge of maintaining the program's national power status after a 16-0 season that defied expectations.
what happenedIndiana: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Elijah Sarratt is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Kaelon Black does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
short yardage2025 cycle~attributednew
Kaelon Black: a short yardage signal screened this season.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Omar Cooper Jr.: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Riley Nowakowski is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Roman Hemby does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
short yardage2025 cycle~attributednew
Roman Hemby converts 3rd/4th-and-short at a below-average rate.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Indiana enters 2025 at No. 1 in SP+ — the gap between its top ranking and #72 talent is the story Curt Cignetti must answer in the Big Ten.
what happenedIndiana enters 2025 rated No. 1 in SP+ (+32.4), up 10 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedIndiana's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
AnsweredIndiana's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downIndiana's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Indiana · 2026
Outcome band · Indiana · 2026Indiana's most likely season is 9-4 — a bowl game. The floor is 6-7; the ceiling is 11-2.
Floor 6-7Ceiling 11-2Base 9-4
0 wins13 wins
Floor6-7A bowl game, 3 fewer wins.
Base9-4A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Indiana · Developing Confidence
Indiana: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season.
Indiana: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers5 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 6% volume
The saga so far~2 months old
last weekCourt ruling clears 2 DL for Indiana — Reported
last weekPutting UMass’ win against Rutgers tonight into perspective — r/CFB
3 weeks agoCignetti updates eligibility, position battles — Reported
Aug 5Indiana makes roster move amid eligibility fight — Reported
Jul 23Top-10 QB commits to Indiana — Reported
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Curt Cignetti, in his third season at Indiana, faces the challenge of maintaining the program's national power status after a 16-0 season that defied expectations.
Source of record: Indiana: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Indiana's Blowout Win Over Howard Creates Sports Betting Controv” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Indiana's Blowout Win Over Howard Creates Sports Betting Controversy By Not Playing Full Fourth Quarter”
BroBible · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“No. 14 IUP Survives Late West Chester Rally, Wins 27-21 in Overtime”
Indiana University of Pennsylvania Athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Indiana Football: A Deeper Look At The Offense In Win Over Howard”
roundtable.io · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Indiana Football: A Deeper Look At The Defense In Win Over Howard”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Indiana Week 2 Wrap-Up: Three positives, two questions and one f” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“Indiana Week 2 Wrap-Up: Three positives, two questions and one final thought”
On3 CFB · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
💬The boards6% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.›
This event was in 355 of 6033 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I thought the take away from today’s game is that Indiana actually isn’t that good"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"This is the best betting game in the country right now. Indiana -55.5 with the C team taking the ball back under four minutes."
r/CFB ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
Purdue
Mixed-4
Old Oaken Bucket
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Indiana is the basketball school whose football team won the national championship — 16-0, the longest perfect season by a major-college champion since at least 1972 (Michigan went 15-0 in 2023), and the most-improbable dynasty origin story in modern CFB.
Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Elite
Open questions
The story
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 8Climbed to No. 3 in the AP Top 25Week 7 · Won 30-20 at Oregon
- 2025 · Wk 5Climbed to No. 11 in the AP Top 25Week 4 · Won 63-10 at home over Illinois
Roster
Roster Reload - Indiana
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production17%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#38 nationally247 composite 735.3
Portal Additions17Primary repair: S
Portal Losses17Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss8Heavy NFL Draft loss (8) — 3 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#29Development class
EDGEin 3 - Tobi Osunsanmiout 5 - Andrew DepaepeStarter Risk
Speed Rusher2025 profilewins the corner before the tackle can set
Homegrown
WRin 2 - Nick Marshout 4 - Makai JacksonStarter Risk
current room: 199 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
CBin 2 - A.J. Harrisout 2 - Dontrae HendersonUpgrade
current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Cover Corner2025 profiledoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play
Former four-star
DLin 1 - Joe Hjelleout 2 - Hosea WheelerDowngrade
current room: 270 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins his gap play after play
our read Two-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile
Sin 2 - Preston Zachmanout 1 - Jah Jah BoydUpgrade
Hybrid Nickel2024 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
Next man up
Full roster (104 players)
DBA.J. Harris, Amare Ferrell, Anthony Chung, Byron Baldwin Jr., Carson Williams, Clay Conner, D'Montae Tims, Garrett Reese, Heath Kizer, Jamar Owens, Jamari Sharpe, Jaylen Bell, Jiquan Sanks, Kasmir Hicks, Lincoln Murff, Preston Zachman, Ryland Gandy, Seaonta Stewart Jr., Zacharey Smith
DLBlake Smythe, Cam McHaney, Chiddi Obiazor, Daniel Ndukwe, Gabe Hill, Jhrevious Hall, Joe Hjelle, Joshua Burnham, Keishaun Calhoun, Kevontay Hugan, Kyler Garcia, Mario Landino, Quentin Clark, Rodney White, Ronelle Johnson, Stephen Daley, Tobi Osunsanmi, Tyrique Tucker, Tyrone Burrus Jr.
LBAmari Kamara, Clayton Allen, Henry Ohlinger, Isaiah Jones, Ja'Dyn Williams, Jacob Savage, Jeff Utzinger, Kaden McConnell, Kaiden Turner, PJ Nelson, Rolijah Hardy
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Indiana
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Court ruling clears 2 DL for Indiana
Eight draftees already thinned the two-deep, and now two DL are cleared — Cignetti didn't need depth at every position, but he needed it here.
- Recruiting
Top-10 QB commits to Indiana
Cignetti just dropped 8 draftees and still lands a top-10 QB — that's not rebuilding, that's a program that recruits like it already arrived.
- News
Cignetti updates eligibility, position battles
Cignetti's sorting out who actually belongs on the two-deep after eight draftees walked out — position battles this early mean the WR pressure is real, not just noise.
- News
Indiana makes roster move amid eligibility fight
Federal eligibility ruling hits different when you're No. 1 in SP+ and already down 8 drafted starters — getting that defender back isn't a luxury, it's structural for a roster trying to reload at the top.
- News
Indiana OL Carter Smith injury update
Eight draftees already gutted the depth chart — the last thing Cignetti needs heading into Big Ten play is a question mark at the one position holding that rebuilt line together.
- News
Nick Marsh named WR1 for Indiana
Eight draftees out, a reshuffled coordinator scheme coming in — Marsh stepping into WR1 tells you the development class has to grow up fast, not eventually.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+11.1 net portal points
(raw ledger: +16.4 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB+4.7
DL-4.0
RB+3.8
low confidence
OT-3.7
low confidence
S+3.7
TE+3.7
low confidence
K+3.3
low confidence
EDGE+1.4
starter risk
LS+1.0
low confidence
P+1.0
low confidence
IOL+0.9
QB+0.8
WR-0.2
starter risk
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Gabe Hill
#213 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Henry Ohlinger
#264 national
★★★★☆
Kasmir Hicks
#277 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
23
IN · 7FL · 3OH · 3GA · 2IL · 2MD · 2WI · 2KY · 1+1 more
IN leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
83 signees across 20 states, 2023-2026. IN leads the pull.
That is 9.1% of every high-school FBS signee IN produced over those cycles — second only to Ball State, 8 signees back. The full map →
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Indiana player grew up 209 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
28th-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%72–481 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi29%28 of 98 players
Farthest996 miJamari Sharpe · Miami, FL
Closest1 miBryce Taylor · Bloomington, IN
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 98 of 104 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Recruiting & portal buzz
Indiana QB Alberto Mendoza has entered the transfer portal
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza has declared for the NFL Draft
Indiana Wide Receiver Omar Cooper Jr has declared for the NFL Draft
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
How it turned out
Belief history
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
52nd percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
52nd
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
10.5
Vegas O/U wins
(99th among FBS)
(99th among FBS)
Market 47pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Pollster gap
Voter spread
68 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #1, Bob Asmussen (Champaign News-Gazette), to #8, Brett McMurphy (Action Network).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.
Penalties
Penalty battle
7 penalties committed, 16 drawn on opponents — netting a 67-yard field-position edge.
63 penalty yards committed vs. 130 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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