The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 70%
Win out 54% · expect 2.5 of 3 more wins
Indiana's chance to win each game left, from our model: USC 76%, Washington 75%, Purdue 94%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Standing2nd in the Big Ten · 5-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Josh Hoover 1,860 · Rushing Turbo Richard 745 · Receiving Charlie Becker 875 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Indiana:athletics siteBig Ten
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #8 | #135 | −39.5✗ −3.5 | North Texas | W 52-16 113 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hoover 231 · Rush Richard 58 · Rec Becker 64 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #8 | #235 | −57.5✗ −2.5 | Howard | W 55-0 109 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hoover 145 · Rush Beebe 112 · Rec Becker 81 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #10 | #52 | −44.5✗ −6.5 | Western Kentucky | W 38-0 127 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hoover 273 · Rush Richard 149 · Rec Becker 127 |
| 4 | Sep 25 | #6 | #15 | −20.5✗ −14.5 | Northwestern | W 29-23 126 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Hoover 201 · Rush Beebe 203 · Rec Becker 98 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #6 | #93 | −24.5✓ +7.5 | @Rutgers | W 47-15 123 | 5-0 | 2-0 | Pass Hoover 251 · Rush Richard 204 · Rec Marsh 120 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #6 | #19 | −9.5✗ −6.5 | @Nebraska | W 20-17 127 Loud | 6-0 | 3-0 | Pass Hoover 263 · Rush Beebe 31 · Rec Marsh 187 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #4 | #2 | +3✗ −1 | Ohio State | L 15-19 137 | 6-1 | 3-1 | Pass Hoover 296 · Rush Richard 46 · Rec Becker 165 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #3 | #29 | −7.5✗ −0.5 | @Michigan | W 13-6 127 | 7-1 | 4-1 | Pass Hoover 81 · Rush Richard 68 · Rec Becker 32 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #3 | #56 | −20.5✗ −13.5 | Minnesota | W 23-16 129 Firestorm | 8-1 | 5-1 | Pass Wilson 156 · Rush Beebe 84 · Rec Becker 149 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #4 | #27 | −10 | USC | time TBA76% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Washington | time TBA75% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Purdue | time TBA94% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Indiana, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Indiana: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Minnesota | W 23-16 | 419 | 2 | 31:33 | +0.149 | 35.7% | 1.42 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @Michigan | W 13-6 | 212 | 1 | 26:16 | -0.106 | 36.4% | 0.90 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Ohio State | L 15-19 | 369 | 2 | 27:48 | +0.009 | 36.6% | 1.33 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @Nebraska | W 20-17 | 328 | 0 | 20:27 | +0.197 | 29.8% | 1.82 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | @Rutgers | W 47-15 | 593 | 0 | 33:02 | +0.531 | 55.1% | 1.34 | Best success rate |
| Sep 25 | Northwestern | W 29-23 | 472 | 0 | 34:47 | +0.268 | 49.3% | 1.21 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 19 | Western Kentucky | W 38-0 | 513 | 0 | 34:51 | +0.322 | 48.5% | 1.23 | Blowout win |
| Sep 12 | Howard | W 55-0 | 505 | 1 | 33:36 | +0.530 | 54.8% | 1.52 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | North Texas | W 52-16 | 365 | 0 | 22:38 | +0.654 | 52.2% | 1.64 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 420 | 0.7 | +0.284 | 44.3% | 1.38 | ||||
Indiana's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
9-1 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Tommy Carr played better and here’s one thing… he should be the starting quarterback going forward over Bryce Underwood
42% now · ▲ 9 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Oregon over Ohio State
Sat 3:30 pm · Moves Indiana’s conference title chance by 5 points
Sat 12 pm · Moves Indiana’s playoff chance by 3 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Curt Cignetti, in his third season at Indiana, faces the challenge of maintaining the program's national power status after a 16-0 season that defied expectations.
Statusdeveloping
Curt Cignetti, in his third season at Indiana, faces the challenge of sustaining a 16-0 record's legacy while navigating a fanbase uneasy about maintaining the program's newfound national power status.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Indiana · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
9 wins 8%; 10 wins 38%; 11 wins 54%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 629 of 11302 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (130 posts): 12% positive · 50% neutral · 38% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 117 of 11302 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (130 posts): 12% positive · 50% neutral · 38% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 8-1
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Indiana is the reigning national champion — a sentence a century-long basketball school still has no muscle memory for saying.
The same voices who called 2024 a fluke and 2025 a soft schedule are still waiting for Indiana to fall back to earth. Cignetti's answer, roughly, 'I win, look it up', became the fanbase's whole…
Indiana · Game-day weather
Typical at Memorial Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 112 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Indiana is the basketball school whose football team won the national championship — 16-0, the longest perfect season by a major-college champion since at least 1972 (Michigan went 15-0 in 2023), and the most-improbable dynasty origin story in modern CFB.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
31st percentile among FBS programs
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #2, Bob Ballou (CBS Austin), to #13, Chris Carter (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Indiana · 2026