Indiana 29-23 Northwestern (Sep 25, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Northwestern · Indiana

Northwestern2-123

No. 5 Indiana4-029Final

Fri, Sep 25 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN), Bloomington, Ind. · Crowd 54,593

No. 5 Indiana beat Northwestern 29-23.

We had Indiana favored. It won.

Next: Northwestern beat Penn State 34-13, Fri Oct 2

Next: Indiana beat Rutgers 47-15, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

This did not give me any more confidence in the Big10 review

Q4 5:10 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Sep 25

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Indiana a 75% chance, and the closing betting line (Indiana was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Favored the whole way: Indiana never fell below 88%.

Northwestern never had better than a 12% chance.

Safety

Indiana · Q1 7:20

FinalIndiana 29-23 NorthwesternIndiana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:41Officials call late hit on Chiles fumble, fans mock celebrationAidan Chiles cheering after fumbling the ball out of bounds into a flag lmaooooooor/CFB game threadI mean that was a late hitr/CFB game thread
Q4 5:10Northwestern fans celebrate Chiles' touchdown as Indiana fans react to Beebe's 70-yard runThank you for this treat on a Friday night Mr. Chilesr/CFB game threadChiles has impressed me tonight.r/CFB game thread
Q4 5:10Fans argue Beebe was out of bounds at the 11, but officials uphold the spot at the 5Quoted at the top of the page.Let’s listen in to the review “…..ok…..” “…alright….” “……..yeah….”r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:46Beebe runs for a first down to seal Indiana's winBeebe just being a grown ass man to end it is kinda coolr/CFB game thread

Indiana’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Indiana -20.5), at 97% for Indiana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Indiana or Northwestern flair (2,269 and 594); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Indiana’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Indiana scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Northwestern on 4 of its 9.

Indiana’s drives are teal, Northwestern’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Finally a good play call”

An Indiana fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The loudest stretch was the finish.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Indiana fans

hoover“Cig has zero trust in Hoover in the red zone now and it’s pretty obvious that we’re running it down the middle three straight times”

Northwestern fans

wilde“Nah, that was shoulder to helmet. And I don't think it was intentional since Wilde was turning upfield meaning it was just bad timing.”

west“If we turn this into a Big Ten West slug fest, then we have a really good chance actually”

punter“Oh great. We need our fantastic (sarcasm) punter to quick kick it.”

transfer“I don’t think non-NU fans understand how much better Chiles looks than all of our QBs since 2020 Peyton Ramsey (who was an Indiana transfer, btw)”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, run, back, ball.

What it cost

Northwestern’s chance to make the playoff fell from 9% to 5%.

Make the playoff

Northwestern · lost9% → ▼5%

Indiana · won17% → ▲20%

Win the conference

Northwestern · lost3% → ▼1%

Indiana · won7% → ▲8%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Indiana 29, Northwestern 23

Northwestern covered +20.5 by 14.5. The total, 52, went over 49.5.

Team totals	Northwestern	Indiana
Total yards	325	472
Passing	22 of 30, 293 yds	19 of 29, 201 yds
Rushing	27 for 32 yds	40 for 271 yds
First downs	21	24
Third down	4 of 9	9 of 15
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 2
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	9 for 57 yds	8 for 60 yds
Time of possession	25:13	34:47

Northwestern leaders

Passing Aidan Chiles 22 of 29, 293 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Gavin Sawchuk 5 for 26 yds; Caleb Komolafe 6 for 7 yds
Receiving Luke Dehnicke 7 for 140 yds; Griffin Wilde 6 for 56 yds, 2 TD

Indiana leaders

Passing Josh Hoover 19 of 29, 201 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Lee Beebe 24 for 203 yds, 1 TD; Turbo Richard 9 for 68 yds
Receiving Charlie Becker 7 for 98 yds; Nick Marsh 5 for 52 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

63° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the northeast, gusts to 12

The usual here around this date is 69°, with about 7 in 10 games between 57° and 82°.

September game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:41 left8:09 p.m.

Northwestern 0, Indiana 0 · Indiana 97% to win

no rain · wind 6 mph from the north-northeast · 63°

Richard 33-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Bloomington airport, 5.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Northwestern · 2-0

Rated 14th in our preseason ratings, 15th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 41-7 vs Colorado #126 of 668

won by 34 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 34-18 vs South Dakota State #104 of 668

won by 16 as a 14-point favorite

Last three games

Indiana · 3-0

Rated 8th in our preseason ratings, 6th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 38-0 vs Western Kentucky #58 of 668

won by 38 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 55-0 vs Howard #217 of 668

won by 55 as a 57.5-point favorite

W 52-16 vs North Texas #123 of 668

won by 36 as a 39.5-point favorite

Week by week

Indiana

Wk 1Wvs North Texas52-16
Wk 2Wvs Howard55-0
Wk 3Wvs Western Kentucky38-0

Northwestern

Wk 1Wvs South Dakota State34-18
Wk 3Wvs Colorado41-7

Power rating by week

Indiana is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Northwestern’s explosive plays against Indiana, 78 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Northwestern’s explosive plays against Indiana’s defense
Northwestern offense, 84th percentile · Indiana defense, 6th
Indiana’s EPA/play against Northwestern’s defense
Indiana offense, 98th percentile · Northwestern defense, 58th
Indiana’s passing EPA against Northwestern’s defense
Indiana offense, 99th percentile · Northwestern defense, 71st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NorthwesternIndiana

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Northwestern leads the series 47-36-1

84 meetings since 1899 · Indiana has won the last 2

2024 · neutral siteIndiana 41-24
2019Indiana 34-3
2016Northwestern 24-14
2012Northwestern 44-29
2011Northwestern 59-38

Each line is Indiana’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Indiana fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (55th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Indiana favored by 20.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Indiana by 20.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Northwestern.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Indiana is worth +4.4 points (±5.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 56th percentile.

60% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (29-19 home, 19-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 208 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Indiana12th0-0
Northwestern13th0-0

Full Big Ten standings

No. 5 Indiana beats Northwestern 29-23