cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
Matchup SimulatorCompare Teams

FBS CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON

Big Ten

#3 overall#3 in FBSRR50 +14.8Upper strength +18.818 teamsTop 25 teams 6

THE LONG WAIT · 2025

The Coast-to-Coast Era

The Big Ten added UCLA and USC in 2024 and became a 18-team coast-to-coast league — the largest Power conference in history. The footprint is new; the championship drought versus the SEC is now eleven years and counting.

Does an expanded Big Ten finally produce a national champion, or does the SEC absorb every bracket spot again in 2026?

FBS18 teamsRace: CFP Access

Big Ten · 2026 Season Preview

Three Things to Watch

The FrontrunnerOregon and the Big Ten's CFP Case

Oregon entered the Big Ten in 2024 and immediately contended. They hold the conference's highest power rating entering 2026 and carry the clearest path to a first-round bye. Dan Lanning's program is the Big Ten's best argument that the West Coast expansion actually changed the conference's ceiling.

The Storied ProgramOhio State's Title Window Is Open

Ohio State has reached the CFP three of the last four seasons and hasn't won the title since 2014. Ryan Day's roster is talented enough — the question is whether the program can close out against elite SEC competition in January. That question doesn't go away until they answer it.

The Wild CardPenn State Has Something to Prove

Penn State went 11-2 in 2025 and was left out of the CFP conversation by a strength-of- schedule profile that didn't satisfy the committee. James Franklin enters 2026 with a roster built to change that — and a schedule with enough signature-game opportunities to finally force the bracket's hand.

Conference Standings · Big Ten · 2025

Standings

# Team Conf Overall Pwr Last 5
1Indiana11–016–0+25.8
2Ohio State9–112–2+22.0
3Oregon8–213–2+20.7
4USC7–29–4+16.3
5Michigan7–29–4+14.3
6Iowa6–39–4+17.8
7Washington5–49–4+18.9
8Illinois5–49–4+15.0
9Minnesota5–48–5+12.2
10Northwestern4–57–6+14.6
11Nebraska4–57–6+10.9
12Penn State3–67–6+17.9
13UCLA3–63–9+9.9
14Rutgers2–75–7+11.5
15Wisconsin2–74–8+11.7
16Michigan State1–84–8+12.0
17Maryland1–84–8+10.9
18Purdue0–92–10+9.1

Conference record determines standing. Power = neutral-field pts vs. all-level average. Last 5 = most recent game results.

Projected Standings · Big Ten · 2026

Win Projection

Preseason model — odds of winning at least N conference games, from current power ratings. Tiers rank projected strength; AVG = expected conference wins.

# Team W–L PWR AVG ≥9≥8≥7≥6≥5≥4≥3≥2≥1
Favorites
1Indiana7–2+10.76.772859839599✓✓✓
2Oregon6–3+5.65.71103057819499✓✓
3Ohio State6–3+6.95.7192957819499✓✓
4Washington5–4+3.85.14163966869699✓
Challengers
5Penn State6–3+2.95.5172551769298✓✓
6Iowa5–4+2.75.115184168879799✓
7Illinois5–4-0.14.72113056809499✓
8USC4–5+1.24.4172247739198✓
9Northwestern4–5-0.53.83123158829599
The Field
10Wisconsin4–5-3.44.2151841678797✓
11Michigan State4–5-3.14.1151739658697✓
12Michigan4–5-0.74.1151639668797✓
13Rutgers4–5-3.63.913133359839599
14Minnesota4–5-2.93.83123158829599
Rebuilding
15Maryland4–5-4.24.0141535628496✓
16UCLA4–5-5.23.83123158819599
17Purdue3–6-6.03.2151741699098
18Nebraska3–6-4.23.2151740688998

Conference Power · FBS

Where We Stand

# Conference Avg Power vs Focal Top Team
1SEC
+15.1
4–3Ole Miss
2Big TenYou are here
+14.8
—Indiana
3ACC
+14.4
4–2Miami
4Big 12
+14.2
3–4Texas Tech
5American Athletic
+13.6
1–1North Texas
6Mountain West
+13.3
5–2San Diego State
7Sun Belt
+13.2
4–0James Madison
8Mid-American
+12.7
13–0Toledo
9Conference USA
+12.4
4–0Western Kentucky

Round-robin power = strength of schedule-adjusted conference average, points vs. all-level average team. Record = Big Ten's record vs. that conference across all games this season.

Championship market · 2025

Big Ten Title odds

#TeamBest oddsBooks
1Ohio State+1756bk
2Indiana+2406bk
3Oregon+2606bk
4USC+12006bk
5Michigan+10006bk
6Penn State+15006bk
7Washington+25006bk
8Iowa+20006bk
9Illinois+100006bk
10Nebraska+100006bk
11Wisconsin+80006bk
12UCLA+100006bk
13Minnesota+125006bk
14Maryland+150006bk
15Northwestern+125006bk
16Michigan State+200006bk
17Rutgers+200005bk
18Purdue+250006bk

Sportsbook consensus — best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22 · American odds (e.g. +450 means bet $100 to win $450)

Big Ten carries real selection-room weight with 6 teams inside the top 25 and Indiana driving a legitimate national ceiling.

Conference Snapshot

RR50+14.8
Upper Strength+18.8
Median Power+14.3
Resume Pulse80.3
Avg ATS49.8%
Wins vs Market-0.10
Top-to-Middle Gap11.3
Combined Record137-97

`RR50`, `Upper Strength`, and `Median Power` are shown on the same public power scale as the rest of the site: points on a neutral field versus the average all-level NCAA team. Very small affiliations are gently regressed toward their subdivision baseline so a one-team outlier does not hijack the entire conference board.

Big Ten Team Board

The league stack, sorted by predictive strength. Power is shown as neutral-field points versus the all-level average team, while resume is shown on a 0-100 season score.

Rank Team Record Power Resume ATS Wins vs Market Recent Form
#1 Indiana 16-0 +25.8 100 10-6 +3.26 4-0 over the last 4 (W15 W18 W20 W21)
#2 Ohio State 12-2 +22.0 100 10-4 -0.21 2-2 over the last 4 (W13 W14 L15 L18)
#6 Oregon 13-2 +20.7 100 8-7 +1.00 3-1 over the last 4 (W14 W17 W18 L20)
#15 Washington 9-4 +18.9 94 7-6 -0.30 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 W13 L14 W16)
#17 Penn State 7-6 +17.9 89 5-8 -2.03 4-0 over the last 4 (W12 W13 W14 W18)
#19 Iowa 9-4 +17.8 96 10-3 +0.97 3-1 over the last 4 (L12 W13 W14 W18)
#36 USC 9-4 +16.3 95 5-8 -0.57 2-2 over the last 4 (W12 L13 W14 L18)
#55 Illinois 9-4 +15.0 95 8-5 +0.88 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 L13 W14 W18)
#59 Northwestern 7-6 +14.6 84 8-4 +0.89 2-2 over the last 4 (L12 W13 L14 W17)
#65 Michigan 9-4 +14.3 94 4-9 -0.05 2-2 over the last 4 (W12 W13 L14 L18)
#103 Minnesota 8-5 +12.2 86 4-8 +2.21 2-2 over the last 4 (L12 L13 W14 W17)
#108 Michigan State 4-8 +12.0 60 7-5 -1.37 1-3 over the last 4 (L10 L12 L13 W14)
#117 Wisconsin 4-8 +11.7 60 6-6 -0.49 2-2 over the last 4 (W11 L12 W13 L14)
#122 Rutgers 5-7 +11.5 69 6-6 -0.46 1-3 over the last 4 (L10 W11 L13 L14)
#141 Nebraska 7-6 +10.9 78 4-8 -0.90 1-3 over the last 4 (W11 L13 L14 L18)
#142 Maryland 4-8 +10.9 57 5-7 -1.53 0-4 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L13 L14)
#169 UCLA 3-9 +9.9 50 4-8 -1.35 0-4 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L13 L14)
#191 Purdue 2-10 +9.1 39 5-7 -1.73 0-4 over the last 4 (L10 L11 L12 L14)

Biggest Risers

Rank movement since the most recent refresh.

No meaningful risers from the last refresh.

Biggest Faders

Teams whose stock dropped most since the last refresh.

No meaningful faders from the last refresh.

Wins vs Market

Win total minus the market's implied expectation, by team.

TeamWins vs MarketSample
Indiana+3.2616 lined games
Minnesota+2.2113 lined games
Oregon+1.0015 lined games
Iowa+0.9713 lined games
Northwestern+0.8913 lined games

Depth & Parity

How wide the league's power spread runs from top to bottom.

Top Rank#1 Indiana
Bottom Rank#191 Purdue
Top-to-Middle Gap11.3
Power Spread4.5
Top 25 Teams6
Top 100 Teams10

Moderately layered — the league has real tiers but no runaway gap between them. Power Spread is the standard deviation of neutral-field power across league members.