Ohio State

1-1AP #6

Big Ten · Ryan Day, year 9 (83-13) · Ohio Stadium · 102,780 · 101,120 avg in 2026

The nationAP #6 · Coaches #6down 5 from last week
The model#1 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #1 (+30.0) · FPI #1
The marketOhio State by 53vs Kent State · our model 98% Ohio State · a number, not a pick

LastL 23–24 at Texas · Sat Sep 12 · Jeremiah Smith 164 rec yds, 1 TD

Nextvs Kent State · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Ohio Stadium · Ohio State by 53 · series 3-0, won the last 3 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Ohio State · 2026 schedule & results1-1
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 5#4#161-51Ball StateW 56–3 1321-00-0
2Sep 12#4#5+2.5@TexasL 23–24 1411-10-0
3Sep 19#1#132-53Kent State
4Sep 26#1#69Illinois
5Oct 3@Iowa
6Oct 10Maryland
7Oct 17@Indiana
9Oct 31@USC
10Nov 7Oregon
11Nov 14Northwestern
12Nov 21@Nebraska
13Nov 28Michigan
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 12@TexasL 23–24372128:32+0.15539.1%133.8%
Sep 5Ball StateW 56–3671131:38+0.66756.2%144.9%
Season average (2 games)5221.0+0.41147.6%139.3%
Verdict Begins·Live

Ohio State treats every autumn as a national-title mandate — and every November against Michigan as the real season, no matter what the trophy case says.

AP Poll#6 AP

Fans here believe the take that the titles are hollow as long as Michigan owns The Game — a narrative the 2024 championship was supposed to silence and somehow didn't. In Columbus, the asterisk is the…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 12-2 · last season

Game feel43rock fightscombined pts / game17th highest-scoring of 18 in the Big Ten
Heart rate1-1rarely closein one-score games (2 of 14)16th most one-score games of 18 in the Big Ten
Margin+24.1comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 18 in the Big Ten
Tempo63average paceoffensive plays / game11th fastest of 18 in the Big Ten
Big plays1.15grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)15th most explosive of 18 in the Big Ten
Home crowd104,785avg attendance3rd biggest crowds of 18 in the Big Ten

✓ measured from 14 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Ohio State has won two of its last five.

Cooling. 7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 7-3
It’s a pleasure playing alongside him. Every day in the offseason, I’m chasing him. He just pushes me to be better, to see him do things like that, it’s like, ‘Okay, I gotta go do that too.’ He just pushes everyone in the building.
Quarterback Julian Sayin · The Lanternthe day of Ohio State's 2026 opener
The forecast

Next Sep 19

vs Kent State · at home

Season line9.5 winsover -180
EliteMethodical, ball-controlElite

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total1 booksO/U 9.5
CFP championship#1 in field+500
Big Ten title#1 in market+125

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14

Ohio State · the story right now 15 storylines developing

What Ohio State's recruiting class is really about

the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?

recruitingthis cycle~readnew

With Chris Henry Jr. (WR, #10 nationally) arriving, Ohio State's fifth straight top-5 class faces a rival Michigan with a top-12 haul — a program that still must prove it.

what happenedOhio State signed a top-4 recruiting class. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's fifth straight top-5 recruiting class

our readfront page

money down2025 cycle✓ factnew

Brandon Inniss is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

our readdeveloping

garbage time2025 cycle✓ factnew

James Peoples sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.

our readdeveloping

deep threat2025 cycle✓ factnew

Jeremiah Smith is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.

our readdeveloping

money down2025 cycle✓ factnew

Jeremiah Smith is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

our readdeveloping

closer2025 cycle~attributednew

Bo Jackson gets LESS work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict -- not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Bo Jackson does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Brandon Inniss is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Carnell Tate is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

CJ Donaldson: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

our readbackground

short yardage2025 cycle~attributednew

CJ Donaldson converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.

our readbackground

closer2025 cycle~attributednew

Isaiah West: a closer signal screened this season.

our readbackground

closer2025 cycle~attributednew

James Peoples: a closer signal screened this season.

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Max Klare is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

our readbackground

program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Ohio State enters 2026 — the gap between its No. 2 SP+ ranking and 12-2 record is the story Ryan Day has to answer in Big Ten this year.

what happenedOhio State enters 2026 rated No. 2 in 2025 SP+ (+30.1). ✓ fact

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

Died downOhio State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedOhio State's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →

Outcome band · Ohio State · 2026

Ohio State's most likely season is 12-3 — a conference title and a CFP semifinal. The floor is 8-5; the ceiling is 16-0.

Floor8-5A bowl game.
Base12-3A conference title and a CFP semifinal.
Ceiling16-0A conference title and a national title.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Ohio State · Market Confidence

The market moved on Ohio State. That's not nothing.

Ohio State: the betting market's belief swinging. The market moved; the fan base is split on what it means. Oddsmakers react to information, not sentiment — but that doesn't mean they're right. The room is divided — bulls and bears both have game-specific cases.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers5 bull takes
💬 fans: 9% volume
The saga so far~3 months old
2 weeks agoOhio State releases final depth chart — Reported
3 weeks agoJayden Fielding sues NCAA for eligibility — Reported
4 weeks agoFreshman removes black stripe in camp — Reported
Aug 11[Marich] Michigan HC Kyle Whittingham on his comments about not hating Ohio State from Big Ten media days: “Do we have a better chance of winning if I hated them? I don’t understand. Whatever gives us the best chance to win, I’m all for it. I want to beat them worse than anybody.” — r/CFB
Aug 1Jayden Fielding seeks eligibility return — Reported
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Ryan Day's 8th season opens with a 12-2 record and #5 talent, yet fan belief remains uneasy, questioning if the program can sustain its national power status amid shifting market expectations.
Source of record: Ohio State: the betting market's belief swinging.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quiet
📣Believers5 bullish/market items -- the case it's working.

The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.

“Ohio State Is Still 'Best Team In The Country' After Loss To Texas”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Josh Pate: Ohio State is still the ‘best team in the country’ after loss to Texas”
Josh Pate · On3 CFB · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Texas Longhorns Broke Long-Standing Records in Historic Win Over Ohio State”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Ryan Day Gets Brutal Wake-Up Call From Ohio State’s Struggles Ag” — the real counter.

The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.

“Ryan Day Gets Brutal Wake-Up Call From Ohio State’s Struggles Against Arch Manning”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
💬The boards9% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.

This event was in 1367 of 14744 board posts (9%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"So this is something I see more and more people speak about given the prevalence of the topic and pending legality across many states. I started to move away from fantasy football"
BuckeyePlanet · Eleven Warriors ~ fan take
"It's almost about time to just move on and focus on the rest of the year, but while there may have been a few good things (Jeremiah Smith, everything in the first half), there were"
r/OhioStateFootball ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Belief EKG
2019 seasonW 52-17 vs Nebraska (Wk 8)W 38-25 vs Penn State (Wk 9)W 49-27 vs Rutgers (Wk 10)W 42-35 vs Indiana (Wk 12)W 52-12 vs Michigan State (Wk 14)W 22-10 vs Northwestern (Wk 16)W 49-28 vs Clemson (Wk 18)L 24-52 vs Alabama (Wk 20)HIGHLOW
2020 seasonW 45-21 vs Florida Atlantic (Wk 1)W 42-0 vs Cincinnati (Wk 2)W 51-10 vs Indiana (Wk 3)W 76-5 vs Miami (OH) (Wk 4)W 48-7 vs Nebraska (Wk 5)W 34-10 vs Michigan State (Wk 6)W 52-3 vs Northwestern (Wk 8)W 38-7 vs Wisconsin (Wk 9)W 73-14 vs Maryland (Wk 11)W 56-21 vs Rutgers (Wk 12)W 28-17 vs Penn State (Wk 13)W 56-27 vs Michigan (Wk 14)W 34-21 vs Wisconsin (Wk 15)L 23-29 vs Clemson (Wk 18)HIGHLOW
2020 offseason2019 offseasonWire: Eleven players drafted and a top-4 class still adding pieces — Moss is Day filling the roster at a…Story arc: Tennessee lands first $2 million running back David Gabriel-Georges over Ohio…Wk 33Wk 4381th18th
2020 season · 7W-1L2019 season · 13W-1L2025 offseason · fan confidence percentile
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc

Rival pulse

Michigan
Bearish
-36
The Game
Face-off →
Penn State
Uneasy
-9
Ohio State-Penn State

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Ohio State is the Midwest's standing answer — the program that does not ask permission to be in the conversation.

Offense: EliteTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Elite
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026 · Wk 3Fell to No. 6 in the AP Top 25Week 2 · Lost 23-24 at Texas5 · from No. 1
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Ohio State

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15
Returning Production68%High continuity
Talent Composite#5 nationally247 composite 964.3
Portal Additions17Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses38Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss11Heavy NFL Draft loss (11) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#4Top-10 recruiting class
WRin 2 - Kyle Parker3.70out 6 - Quincy Porter4.50Starter Risk
current room: 206 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
DLin 2 - James Smith4.50out 5 - Jarquez Carter3.70Starter Risk
current room: 290 lbs avg (2025 roster)
3-Tech Penetrator2025 profiledisrupts the pocket from the interior
Former five-star
Sin 2 - Terry Moore4.50out 5 - Keenan Nelson Jr.4.28Starter Risk
current room: 202 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Rover2024 profileTakeaway threathits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away the kind of DB who takes it back the other way
CBin 2 - Dominick Kelly4.00out 4 - Aaron Scott Jr.3.80Starter Risk
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 1 - Qua Russaw4.38out 4 - C.J. Hicks3.70Starter Risk
current room: 262 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Linebacker2024 profileis steady in every phase without a signature trait
IOLin 0out 4 - Tegra Tshabola4.38Starter Risk
current room: 311 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
TE · departedMax Klare3★ · Rd 2, Pk 29
nowNate Roberts4★ · FR
Next man up
Full roster (120 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Ohio State

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Jayden Fielding sues NCAA for eligibility

    Fielding handled kicking duties through a brutal 11-man NFL drain and Day needs every weapon returning — a lawsuit for a fifth year of eligibility is ugly, but the roster math makes it worth fighting.

    Aug 20Reported
  2. Recruiting

    Five-star RB commits to Tennessee over Ohio State

    Day's class sits at #4 nationally and still couldn't hold a five-star backfield piece — 11 draft exits left real carries to distribute, and Tennessee just walked into that conversation and won it.

    Jul 22Reported
  3. Coaching

    Florida State hires Ohio State OC

    Losing an OC after 11 players drafted and a QB room mid-debate is a rough sequence — Day needs a smooth transition or the Sayin conversation gets louder fast.

    Jul 14Official
  4. Coaching

    Gallagher hired as DC

    Day burned the whole DC search down and rebuilt it — after losing 11 to the draft, the Buckeyes needed a coordinator who owns a room, not one who manages it.

  5. Recruiting

    Five-star recruit commits to Ohio State

    Eleven players drafted and the WR room still carrying question marks — Day locks in a five-star to patch the most visible gap before fall camp even becomes a conversation.

  6. News

    Ohio State releases final depth chart

    Eleven draft picks gone and a top-4 class behind them — Day's final depth chart tells you which freshmen actually won jobs and which spots the rebuild hasn't filled yet.

Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

-5.1 net portal points
(raw ledger: -61.0 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
WR
-15.6
starter risk
IOL
-15.2
starter risk
EDGE
-10.1
starter risk
DL
-9.3
starter risk
S
-7.6
starter risk
CB
-6.1
starter risk
LB
+3.8
low confidence
TE
+3.7
RB
-3.6
K
+1.4
QB
-1.3
P
-1.0
low confidence
OT
-0.1
LS
+0.0
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★★
Chris Henry Jr.
WR · Santa Ana, CA
#14 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical wide receiver — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★★
Cincere Johnson
LB · Cleveland, OH
#16 national
★★★★★
Jay Timmons
CB · Gibsonia, PA
#25 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

30
OH · 12CA · 3GA · 2LA · 2NJ · 2TX · 2AL · 1AZ · 1+5 more

OH leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

107 signees across 20 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMI1NYMAORNVWYSD1IAILIN4OH42PA3NJ7CT1CA5UTCONEMOKYWVVA1MD4DERIAZ2NMKSARTN1NC3SCDCOK1LA2MSAL3GA7AKHITX9FL9
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

That is 7.7% of every high-school FBS signee OH produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — Kent State is next. The full map →

Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Ohio State player grew up 294 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

60th-closest to home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%89–807 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi28%32 of 116 players
Farthest1,988 miGlorien Gough · Palos Verdes Estates, CA
Closest2 miIan Gecse · Grandview Heights, OH

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Ohio Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 116 of 120 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns OH · 2026 roster

45% of the Ohio State roster grew up in OH.

53 of 118 players, drawn from 19 states in all. That is the 38th-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

OH · 53FL · 10CA · 8TX · 8GA · 6AL · 5NJ · 5IL · 4+11 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

118 players across 19 states. Biggest pull outside OH: FL (10).

MEVTNHWAID1MTNDMNWI1MI1NYMAORNVWYSDIAIL4IN2OH53PA2NJ5CT1CA8UTCONEMOKYWVVAMD2DERIAZ2NMKSARTNNC4SCDCOK1LA2MSAL5GA6AKHITX8FL10
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 2 listed players fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and are excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Recruiting & portal buzz

2028 5* WR Jett Harrison commits to Ohio State
406 upvotes · Jul 2026
2027 5* DL Marcus Fakatou commits to Ohio State
157 upvotes · Jun 2026
Ohio State S Faheem Delane transfers to LSU
145 upvotes · Jan 2026

Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 3 drafted so far, 58% never transferred. A
See the class →
Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025

25th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
25th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
9.5
Vegas O/U wins
(93rd among FBS)
Market 68pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Pollster gapPollsters don't agree -- here's how far apart.
Voter spread

68 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #2, Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News), to #10, Randy Johnson (Minneapolis Star Tribune).

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

Losing the penalty battle: 13 penalties committed vs. 5 drawn on opponents, a 89-yard deficit.

116 penalty yards committed vs. 27 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site