The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Oregon 65%, No. 23 Northwestern 68%
Win out 27% · expect 2.9 of 4 more wins
Ohio State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Oregon 65%, Northwestern 68%, Nebraska 72%, Michigan 83%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 89% to 80%, peaking at 89% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing3rd in the Big Ten · 4-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Julian Sayin 2,007 · Rushing Bo Jackson 637 · Receiving Jeremiah Smith 1,067 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Ohio State:athletics siteBig TenXInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #4 | #161 | −50.5✓ +2.5 | Ball State | W 56-3 132 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Sayin 320 · Rush Jackson 83 · Rec Smith 151 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #4 | #5 | +2.5✓ +1.5 | @Texas | L 23-24 141 Firestorm | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Sayin 278 · Rush Jackson 74 · Rec Smith 164 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #1 | #132 | −52.5✓ +3.5 | Kent State | W 59-3 121 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Sayin 241 · Rush Jackson 73 · Rec Smith 85 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #1 | #71 | −25.5✗ −2.5 | Illinois | W 42-19 139 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Sayin 367 · Rush Jackson 56 · Rec Smith 217 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #2 | #16 | −14.5✓ +2.5 | @IowaTop 25 win | W 31-14 127 Loud | 4-1 | 2-0 | Pass Sayin 324 · Rush Jackson 72 · Rec Smith 206 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #2 | #97 | −31.5✗ −2.5 | Maryland | W 45-16 122 | 5-1 | 3-0 | Pass Sayin 242 · Rush Jackson 107 · Rec Smith 93 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #2 | #4 | −3✓ +1 | @IndianaTop 10 win | W 19-15 137 | 6-1 | 4-0 | Pass Sayin 235 · Rush Jackson 56 · Rec Smith 68 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #1 | #30 | −6.5✗ −18.5 | @USC | L 18-30 131 | 6-2 | 4-1 | Pass Fahey 260 · Rush Jackson 121 · Rec Smith 83 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #2 | #11 | −7.5 | Oregon | 3:30 pm ET · CBS65% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #2 | #10 | Northwestern | time TBA68% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Nebraska | time TBA72% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | −13.5 | Michigan | 12 pm ET · FOX | |||||
Win chances are our model for Ohio State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Ohio State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @USC | L 18-30 | 464 | 1 | 39:28 | +0.137 | 43.9% | 1.11 | |
| Oct 17 | @Indiana | W 19-15 | 313 | 2 | 32:12 | +0.050 | 37.7% | 1.41 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Maryland | W 45-16 | 449 | 2 | 34:39 | +0.119 | 48.6% | 1.17 | Blowout win |
| Oct 3 | @Iowa | W 31-14 | 484 | 0 | 38:02 | +0.203 | 48.6% | 1.21 | |
| Sep 26 | Illinois | W 42-19 | 518 | 0 | 29:22 | +0.517 | 58.0% | 1.28 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | Kent State | W 59-3 | 527 | 2 | 30:21 | +0.292 | 55.4% | 1.29 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | @Texas | L 23-24 | 372 | 1 | 28:32 | +0.115 | 39.1% | 1.34 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Ball State | W 56-3 | 671 | 1 | 31:38 | +0.667 | 56.2% | 1.45 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 475 | 1.1 | +0.262 | 48.4% | 1.28 | ||||
Ohio State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
No. 3 Ohio State
First-round bye
Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
You have to know where he's at at all times; he's dynamic in every phase. I think our players are excited to take on that challenge. But defending a guy like him is a real challenge
80% now · ▼ 4 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Sat 12 pm · Moves Ohio State’s conference title chance by 4 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · Ohio State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 6%; 8 wins 25%; 9 wins 42%; 10 wins 27%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Ohio State treats every autumn as a national-title mandate — and every November against Michigan as the real season, no matter what the trophy case says.
Fans here believe the take that the titles are hollow as long as Michigan owns The Game — a narrative the 2024 championship was supposed to silence and somehow didn't. In Columbus, the asterisk is…
Ohio State · Game-day weather
Typical at Ohio Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 87 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Ohio State is the Midwest's standing answer — the program that does not ask permission to be in the conversation.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #5, Mike Hill (Fox Sports), to #17, Greg Luca (San Antonio Express-News).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.
Range of outcomes · Ohio State · 2026