No. 1 Ohio State routs Ball State 56-3

Ball State0-13
No. 1 Ohio State1-056Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio · Crowd 101,120BTN

No. 1 Ohio State routed Ball State 56-3.

We had Ohio State favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

I see why bro doesn't wanna knee lmfao.

Q4 15:00 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 5

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio State a 99% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio State was a 50.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Ohio State led by 14 after the first quarter and by 25 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+53+53
FinalOhio State 56-3 Ball StateOhio State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Ohio StateWon56-3ScoresChatter15 comments a minute16 comments a minute25 comments a minute13 comments a minute16 comments a minute16 comments a minute10 comments a minute13 comments a minute12 comments a minute21 comments a minute20 comments a minute10 comments a minute19 comments a minute15 comments a minute10 comments a minute20 comments a minute30 comments a minute9 comments a minute15 comments a minute19 comments a minute16 comments a minute10 comments a minute19 comments a minute8 comments a minute16 comments a minute15 comments a minute12 comments a minute11 comments a minute12 comments a minute8 comments a minute16 comments a minute4 comments a minute7 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute6 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute9 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Ohio StateWon56-3ScoresChatter15 comments a minute16 comments a minute25 comments a minute13 comments a minute16 comments a minute16 comments a minute10 comments a minute13 comments a minute12 comments a minute21 comments a minute20 comments a minute10 comments a minute19 comments a minute15 comments a minute10 comments a minute20 comments a minute30 comments a minute9 comments a minute15 comments a minute19 comments a minute16 comments a minute10 comments a minute19 comments a minute8 comments a minute16 comments a minute15 comments a minute12 comments a minute11 comments a minute12 comments a minute8 comments a minute16 comments a minute4 comments a minute7 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute6 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute9 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Ohio StateLowest 0%Lost3-56ScoresChatter15 comments a minute16 comments a minute25 comments a minute13 comments a minute16 comments a minute16 comments a minute10 comments a minute13 comments a minute12 comments a minute21 comments a minute20 comments a minute10 comments a minute19 comments a minute15 comments a minute10 comments a minute20 comments a minute30 comments a minute9 comments a minute15 comments a minute19 comments a minute16 comments a minute10 comments a minute19 comments a minute8 comments a minute16 comments a minute15 comments a minute12 comments a minute11 comments a minute12 comments a minute8 comments a minute16 comments a minute4 comments a minute7 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute6 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute9 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Ohio StateLowest 0%Lost3-56ScoresChatter15 comments a minute16 comments a minute25 comments a minute13 comments a minute16 comments a minute16 comments a minute10 comments a minute13 comments a minute12 comments a minute21 comments a minute20 comments a minute10 comments a minute19 comments a minute15 comments a minute10 comments a minute20 comments a minute30 comments a minute9 comments a minute15 comments a minute19 comments a minute16 comments a minute10 comments a minute19 comments a minute8 comments a minute16 comments a minute15 comments a minute12 comments a minute11 comments a minute12 comments a minute8 comments a minute16 comments a minute4 comments a minute7 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute6 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute9 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 8:47Sayin throws deep touchdown to Smith, who holds ball up while tackledWho’s a better wide receiver, anon? Jeremiah Smith or a bag of Fun-Yuns?r/CFB game threadWhere is the throw it to Jeremiah Smith button on my controller? Is it Y or X? 😂r/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 15:00Ohio State fans celebrate Sayin's rushing touchdown to extend the lead to 21-0Hell yeah Sayin giddy upr/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 12:08A quarterback rushed for a touchdown.Hell yeah Sayin giddy upr/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 1:27every time i see someone else kick a field goal above 40 yards it makes me hate jayden fielding so much morer/CFB game threadI feel like legend bey gonna be waiting long time before he sees the field againr/CFB game thread
  5. Q2 0:24Sayin passes to Smith for touchdown as fans praise his Heisman caseWatching Smith is a treat. Watching the O-line run block is not.r/CFB game threadI love having Jeremiah Smith on my teamr/CFB game thread
  6. Q3 8:20A live helmet mic picked up an unfiltered comment.Hot mic of doom lolr/CFB game thread
  7. Q3 8:20The quarterback hurdled a defender.They hurdle? They hurdle now!r/CFB game thread
  8. Q4 15:00Quoted at the top of the page.Can you imagine the feeling for Bey rn. So happy for the kid.r/CFB game thread
Ohio State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Ohio State -50.5), at 100% for Ohio State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Ohio State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 8:47Sayin 48-yd TD pass to SmithOhio State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 8:47 · Ohio State 7, Ball State 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q1, 5:52Sayin sacked for a 5-yd lossQ1, 5:52 · Ohio State 7, Ball State 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q1, 1:23Sayin 17-yd TD pass to McCuinOhio State leads 14-0Q1, 1:23 · Ohio State 14, Ball State 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  4. Q2, 14:49Luster intercepted by Alford at the Ball State 30Q2, 14:49 · Ohio State 14, Ball State 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  5. Q2, 12:08Sayin 3-yd TD runOhio State leads 21-0Q2, 12:08 · Ohio State 21, Ball State 021-0score after the play21-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  6. Q2, 0:10Sayin 3-yd TD pass to SmithOhio State leads 28-3Q2, 0:10 · Ohio State 28, Ball State 328-3score after the play28-3score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  7. Q3, 11:29Jackson 65-yd TD runOhio State leads 35-3Q3, 11:29 · Ohio State 35, Ball State 335-3score after the play35-3score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  8. Q3, 8:20Jackson 49-yd TD runOhio State leads 42-3Q3, 8:20 · Ohio State 42, Ball State 342-3score after the play42-3score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  9. Q3, 6:17Fahey intercepted by Franklin at the Ohio State 36Q3, 6:17 · Ohio State 42, Ball State 342-3score after the play42-3score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  10. Q4, 14:16Fahey 25-yd TD pass to BeyOhio State leads 49-3Q4, 14:16 · Ohio State 49, Ball State 349-3score after the play49-3score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  11. Q4, 1:55T.St. Clair pass complete short middle to C.Henry Jr. for 15 yards to the BallSt00 touchdownQ4, 1:55 · Ohio State 56, Ball State 356-3score after the play56-3score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

Ohio State scored on 8 of its 12 drives; Ball State on 1 of its 13.

Ohio State’s drives are teal, Ball State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Ohio State: Punt, from 84 yards out to 80PuntBall State: Punt, from 61 yards out to 43PuntOhio State: Touchdown, from 99 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 59PuntOhio State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 72InterceptionQ2Ohio State: Touchdown, from 28 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 48PuntOhio State: Punt, from 94 yards out to 65PuntBall State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 37Field goalOhio State: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3Ball State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntOhio State: Touchdown, from 94 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntOhio State: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: Punt, from 70 yards out to 71PuntOhio State: Interception, from 78 yards out to 76InterceptionBall State: Punt, from 36 yards out to 50PuntOhio State: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Ball State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 31DownsOhio State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 57PuntBall State: Punt, from 85 yards out to 85PuntOhio State: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: End of game, from 75 yards out to 23End of game
“Toney is great. He is not better than this dude.”
An Ohio State fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans were loudest in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

FirstSecondThirdFourthOhio State fansBall State fansusual

Never in doubt.

What it cost

Ohio State’s chance to win the conference rose from 38% to 39%.

Win the conference

Ball State · lost1% → 1%
Ohio State · won38% → ▲39%38%▲ 39%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Ohio State 56, Ball State 3

Ohio State covered −50.5 by 2.5. The total, 59, went over 55.5.

Ball StateOhio StateTotal yardsBall State 165Ohio State 671165671Passing yardsBall State 120Ohio State 434120434Rushing yardsBall State 45Ohio State 23745237First downsBall State 13Ohio State 321332TurnoversBall State 1Ohio State 111Time of possessionBall State 28:22Ohio State 31:3828:2231:38
Team totalsBall StateOhio State
Total yards165671
Passing20 of 37, 120 yds31 of 37, 434 yds
Rushing23 for 45 yds35 for 237 yds
First downs1332
Third down3 of 145 of 11
Fourth down0 of 12 of 2
Turnovers11
Penalties3 for 15 yds9 for 81 yds
Time of possession28:2231:38

Ball State leaders

  • Passing Keldric Luster 18 of 33, 89 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Elijah Jackson 2 for 20 yds; Keldric Luster 9 for 10 yds
  • Receiving Elisha Durham 1 for 26 yds; Tate Hoover 5 for 20 yds

Ohio State leaders

  • Passing Julian Sayin 21 of 25, 320 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Ja'Kobi Jackson 8 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Bo Jackson 9 for 83 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Jeremiah Smith 8 for 151 yds, 2 TD; Devin Mccuin 6 for 97 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

80° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the northwest, gusts to 14

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 68 other games played at Ohio Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 72°, with about 7 in 10 games between 62° and 82°.

September game-day temperatures at Ohio Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Ohio State favoredBall State favored100%Win chanceOhio StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Ohio State favoredBall State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 15:00 left12:32 p.m.
Ball State 0, Ohio State 0 · Ohio State 100% to win
no rain · wind 7 mph from the north-northwest · 80°
Jackson 4-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Columbus/st Univ airport, 6.3 miles away, and Columbus airport, 7.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Ball State · 4-8

Rated 161st in our preseason ratings.

L 24-45 @ Miami (OH) #82 of 667

lost by 21 as a 16.5-point underdog

Ball State lost 24-45 at Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 10%, low under 1%, high 12%.

L 9-38 @ Toledo #28 of 667

lost by 29 as a 28.5-point underdog

Ball State lost 9-38 at Toledo. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 4%.

L 9-24 vs Eastern Michigan #133 of 667

lost by 15 as a 2.5-point underdog

Ball State lost 9-24 vs Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 52%, low under 1%, high 52%.

W 17-13 vs Kent State #211 of 667

won by 4 as a 3.5-point favorite

Ball State won 17-13 vs Kent State. Chance to win started at 68%, low 28%, high 97%.

L 7-21 @ Northern Illinois #172 of 667

lost by 14 as a 6.5-point underdog

Ball State lost 7-21 at Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 28%, low under 1%, high 40%.

W 42-28 vs Akron #180 of 667

won by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 0-42 @ Western Michigan #85 of 667

lost by 42 as a 9.5-point underdog

Ball State lost 0-42 at Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 28%.

W 20-14 vs Ohio #76 of 667

won by 6 as a 14.5-point underdog

Ball State won 20-14 vs Ohio. Chance to win started at 14%, low 3%, high better than 99%.

L 25-31 @ UConn #74 of 667

lost by 6 as a 20.5-point underdog

Ball State lost 25-31 at UConn. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 21%.

W 34-29 vs New Hampshire #160 of 667

won by 5 as a 2.5-point favorite

Ball State won 34-29 vs New Hampshire. Chance to win started at 66%, low 40%, high better than 99%.

L 3-42 @ AuburnTop 25 #13 of 667

lost by 39 as a 42.5-point underdog

Ball State lost 3-42 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 0-31 @ Purdue #89 of 667

lost by 31 as a 16.5-point underdog

Ball State lost 0-31 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Ohio State · 12-2

Rated 4th in our preseason ratings.

L 14-24 vs MiamiTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 10 as a 7.5-point favorite

Ohio State lost 14-24 vs Miami. Chance to win started at 78%, low 9%, high 79%.

L 10-13 vs IndianaTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

Ohio State lost 10-13 vs Indiana. Chance to win started at 71%, low under 1%, high 91%.

W 27-9 @ MichiganTop 25 #26 of 667

won by 18 as a 9.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 27-9 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 59%, low 43%, high better than 99%.

W 42-9 vs Rutgers #84 of 667

won by 33 as a 28.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 42-9 vs Rutgers. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

W 48-10 vs UCLA #64 of 667

won by 38 as a 32.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 48-10 vs UCLA. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 34-10 @ Purdue #90 of 667

won by 24 as a 30.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 34-10 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 96%, low 93%, high better than 99%.

W 38-14 vs Penn StateTop 25 #20 of 667

won by 24 as a 17.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 38-14 vs Penn State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

W 34-0 @ Wisconsin #82 of 667

won by 34 as a 24.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 34-0 at Wisconsin. Chance to win started at 92%, low 92%, high better than 99%.

W 34-16 @ IllinoisTop 25 #41 of 667

won by 18 as a 15.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 34-16 at Illinois. Chance to win started at 82%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

W 42-3 vs Minnesota #47 of 667

won by 39 as a 23.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 42-3 vs Minnesota. Chance to win started at 95%, low 89%, high better than 99%.

W 24-6 @ WashingtonTop 25 #30 of 667

won by 18 as a 9.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 24-6 at Washington. Chance to win started at 66%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

W 37-9 vs Ohio #73 of 667

won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 37-9 vs Ohio. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

W 70-0 vs Grambling #191 of 667

won by 70 as a 51.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 70-0 vs Grambling. Never in doubt.

W 14-7 vs TexasTop 25 #3 of 667

won by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 14-7 vs Texas. Chance to win started at 64%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Ohio State’s passing EPA against Ball State, 91 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Ohio State’s EPA/play against Ball State’s defense

    86 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio State offense, 87th percentile · Ball State defense, 1st

  2. Ohio State’s passing EPA against Ball State’s defense

    91 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio State offense, 92nd percentile · Ball State defense, 1st

  3. Ohio State’s explosive plays against Ball State’s defense

    67 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio State offense, 75th percentile · Ball State defense, 8th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Ball StateOhio State
EPA/play, offense
Ball State · 31Ohio State · 87
EPA/play, defense
Ball State · 1Ohio State · 95
Success rate, offense
Ball State · 13Ohio State · 87
Success rate, defense
Ball State · 13Ohio State · 90
Explosive-play rate, offense
Ball State · 87Ohio State · 75
Explosive-play rate, defense
Ball State · 8Ohio State · 79
Rush EPA, offense
Ball State · 26Ohio State · 49
Rush EPA, defense
Ball State · 2Ohio State · 92
Pass EPA, offense
Ball State · 47Ohio State · 92
Pass EPA, defense
Ball State · 1Ohio State · 89

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Ohio State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (7th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

50-50Model 99% · Line 100%Ohio State fans · 7thBall State fans · 29thBall StateOhio State

Ohio State favored by 50.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Ohio State by 50.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Ohio State.

opened −49.5now −50.5

Spread: −49.5 → −50.5

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 83° at kickoff.

Ball State at Ohio State · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Ohio Stadium, Columbus

  • 83°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 87weather score, Mixed

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Ohio Stadium that day, a 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 99, against 87 at noon.

  • noon: 87, Mixed (this game)
  • 12:45 pm: 87, Mixed
  • 2 pm: 87, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 84, Mixed
  • 6 pm: 92, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 96, Comfortable
  • 7:45 pm: 99, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Ohio State is worth +6.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 86th percentile.

95% at home, 86% on the road against FBS opponents (53-3 home, 32-5 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 127 miles to get here.

Where next