recruitingthis cycle✓ factnew
Texas signed a top-7 recruiting class.
the contexta top-3 recruiting class in the SEC
our readfront page
Texas
2-0AP #1Latest
SEC · Steve Sarkisian, year 6 (50-20) · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 100,119 · 103,891 avg in 2026
The nationAP #1 · Coaches #1up 3 from last week
The model#4 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #4 (+25.4) · FPI #2
The marketTexas by 30vs UTSA · our model 76% Texas · a number, not a pick
LastW 24–23 vs Ohio State · Sat Sep 12 · Daylan Smothers 74 rush yds, 2 TD, 29 rec yds
Nextvs UTSA · Sat Sep 19 · 8 pm ET · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Texas by 30 · series 2-0, won the last 2 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Texas · 2026 schedule & results2-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #5 | #34 | -29.5✓ | Texas State | W 59–7 140 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #5 | #4 | -2.5✗ | Ohio StateTop 10 win | W 24–23 141 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 20 | #4 | #14 | -30 | UTSA | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #4 | #28 | @Tennessee | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Oklahoma (N) | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Florida | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Ole Miss | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Mississippi State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Missouri | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @LSU | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Arkansas | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Texas A&M |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Ohio State | W 24–23 | 336 | 2 | 31:28 | +0.165 | 48.7% | 102.7% | |
| Sep 5 | Texas State | W 59–7 | 516 | 1 | 29:34 | +0.459 | 50.0% | 158.0% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 426 | 1.5 | +0.312 | 49.4% | 130.3% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Texas spent fifteen years as the sport's punchline, climbed back to the brink under Sarkisian and Arch Manning — and then a 2025 that missed the Playoff turned the swagger into a question.
AP Poll#1 AP
Every flicker of struggle reignites the punchline the program wore for a decade — 'Texas is back?' said with a smirk. The fanbase uses it on itself now, but it wants to bury it for good.
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Texas fans
Ohio State fans on Texas
Texas fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 10-3 · last season
Game feel51even gamescombined pts / game7th highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate3-2some dramain one-score games (5 of 13)10th most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin+10.2competitiveavg scoring margin9th best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo65average paceoffensive plays / game12th fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.39highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)2nd most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd102,367avg attendance2nd biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Texas has won five straight.
Hot. 9-1 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Streak W5Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 9-1
We need to focus on the task at hand, and we need to be enamored with (ourselves) because I think this week can be full of distractions if you allow them to be distractions
The forecast
Next Sep 20
vs UTSA · at home
Season line9.5 winsover +108
StrongExplosive, big-playStrong
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total1 booksO/U 9.5
CFP championship#3 in field+600
SEC title#2 in market+260
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Texas · the story right now
11 storylines developing
What Texas's recruiting class is really about
the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?
playoff paththis cycle~readnew
Steve Sarkisian enters his sixth season with a 10-3 record, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if Texas can sustain its playoff path amid shifting expectations and lingering identity gaps.
what happenedTexas: the playoff path shifting. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
marketthis cycle~readnew
Steve Sarkisian's sixth season begins with a #2 talent rank, but a 10-3 record and uneasy fan belief signal tension between promise and pressure.
what happenedTexas: the betting market's belief swinging. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
money down2025 cycle✓ factnew
DeAndre Moore Jr. is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Steve Sarkisian enters his sixth season with a 10-3 record, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain a national power's present tense.
what happenedTexas: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
DeAndre Moore Jr. is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Emmett Mosley V is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Jack Endries is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Parker Livingstone is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Tre Wisner does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Texas enters 2026 — a 10-3 record and No. 17 SP+ rating highlight a program trying to reconcile its past glory with a present that demands new proof of its national power identity.
what happenedTexas enters 2026 rated No. 17 in 2025 SP+ (+16.2), down 10 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downTexas's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Texas · 2026
Outcome band · Texas · 2026Texas' most likely season is 12-3 — a conference title and a CFP semifinal. The floor is 8-5; the ceiling is 16-0.
Floor 8-5Ceiling 16-0Base 12-3
0 wins16 wins
Floor8-5A bowl game.
Base12-3A conference title and a CFP semifinal.
Ceiling16-0A conference title and a national title.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Texas · Market Confidence
The market moved on Texas. That's not nothing.
Texas: the betting market's belief swinging. The coverage is pushing back on the drop. The fan base is running warmer than the market. The coverage runs bullish despite the drop.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers6 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 11% volume
Developing1 new this week
5 days agoBob McKay, former Texas OL, dies at 78 — Reported
last weekWin total (line at 9.5) still unmoved 12d after "Texas LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed"
last weekWin total (line at 9.5) still unmoved 11d after "Texas LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed"
last weekAD rejects uniform redesign — Reported
2 weeks agoWin total (line at 9.5) still unmoved 10d after "Texas LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed"
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Steve Sarkisian's sixth season begins with a #2 talent rank, but a 10-3 record and uneasy fan belief signal tension between promise and pressure.
Next · what to watch
Win total moves are the sharpest signal the market sends in the offseason. They don't reflect fan enthusiasm — they reflect information: roster losses, schedule difficulty, injury reports, and coaching staff changes that haven't hit the beat press yet. One-win adjustments are deliberate, not rounding. Watch whether the line moves again — markets don't stop at one adjustment when the signal changes. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Texas: the betting market's belief swinging.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Texas Longhorns move to No. 1 in AP Top 25 after dramatic win ov” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Texas Longhorns move to No. 1 in AP Top 25 after dramatic win over Ohio State”
Houston Chronicle · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“College football’s chaos era is here: Texas rallies, Oregon falls and Lane Kiffin eyes return to Ole Miss”
Fox News · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers6 bullish/market items -- the case it's working.›
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
“Easton Royal and more 5-star recruits blown away by Texas's Week 2 comeback victory”
Hook'em Headlines · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Arch Manning Pulls Off Texas Longhorns First After Ohio State Win”
heavy.com · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Josh Pate: Ohio State is still the ‘best team in the country’ after loss to Texas”
Josh Pate · On3 CFB · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards11% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.›
This event was in 1307 of 11682 board posts (11%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"This. It's no different than winding the clock down for an outcome-changing FG attempt. You know you're winning or losing on that play no matter what. This case with Texas was diff"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Was at DKR for Texas-Ohio State last night and that was a pretty awesome game. For three quarters it felt like Ohio State had completely taken the crowd out of it, then Texas someh"
r/LonghornNation ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · Texas · Developing Confidence
Texas: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Texas: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers6 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 11% volume
Developing1 new this week
5 days agoBob McKay, former Texas OL, dies at 78 — Reported
last weekWin total (line at 9.5) still unmoved 12d after "Texas LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed"
last weekWin total (line at 9.5) still unmoved 11d after "Texas LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed"
last weekAD rejects uniform redesign — Reported
2 weeks agoWin total (line at 9.5) still unmoved 10d after "Texas LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed"
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Steve Sarkisian enters his sixth season with a 10-3 record, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain a national power's present tense.
Source of record: Texas: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Texas Longhorns move to No. 1 in AP Top 25 after dramatic win ov” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Texas Longhorns move to No. 1 in AP Top 25 after dramatic win over Ohio State”
Houston Chronicle · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“College football’s chaos era is here: Texas rallies, Oregon falls and Lane Kiffin eyes return to Ole Miss”
Fox News · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers6 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Easton Royal and more 5-star recruits blown away by Texas's Week 2 comeback victory”
Hook'em Headlines · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Arch Manning Pulls Off Texas Longhorns First After Ohio State Win”
heavy.com · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Josh Pate: Ohio State is still the ‘best team in the country’ after loss to Texas”
Josh Pate · On3 CFB · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards11% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.›
This event was in 1307 of 11682 board posts (11%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"This. It's no different than winding the clock down for an outcome-changing FG attempt. You know you're winning or losing on that play no matter what. This case with Texas was diff"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Was at DKR for Texas-Ohio State last night and that was a pretty awesome game. For three quarters it felt like Ohio State had completely taken the crowd out of it, then Texas someh"
r/LonghornNation ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc
Rival pulse
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Texas is the program that spent fifteen years explaining what it used to be, and is now remembering how to speak in present tense.
Offense: StrongTempo: Explosive, big-playDefense: Strong
Open questions
Active arcs
Cooling
Texas alters football uniform for 2026 season
What specific changes have been made to the Texas Longhorns' uniforms?
Cooling
Sarkisian hints at Arch Manning’s possible return to Texas in 2027
Will Arch Manning return to Texas for another season?
Cooling
Texas A&M vs. Missouri: Matchups That Will Decide the Game - Sports Illustrated
Can LSU secure a College Football Playoff spot with a strong performance in their key matchup?
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 13Fell to No. 17 in both the AP Top 25 and the CFP rankingsWeek 12 · Lost 10-35 at Georgia
- 2025 · Wk 11Climbed to No. 13 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Won 34-31 at home over Vanderbilt
- 2025 · Wk 8Entered the AP Top 25Week 7 · Won 23-6 over Oklahoma at a neutral site
- 2025 · Wk 7Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 6 · Lost 21-29 at Florida
- 2025 · Wk 2Fell to No. 7 in the AP Top 25Week 1 · Lost 7-14 at Ohio State
Roster
Roster Reload - Texas
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production72%High continuity
Talent Composite#2 nationally247 composite 985.2
Portal Additions22Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses28Primary pressure: RB
Draft Loss6Heavy NFL Draft loss (6) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#7Top-10 recruiting class
RBin 2 - Hollywood Smothersout 6 - Quintrevion WisnerStarter Risk
current room: 206 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 4 - Rasheem Bilesout 2 - Liona LefauNeed Filled
current room: 235 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Linebacker2025 profileis steady in every phase without a signature trait
Homegrown
WRin 2 - Cam Colemanout 4 - DeAndre Moore Jr.Starter Risk
current room: 198 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
Former five-star
CBin 2 - Bo Mascoeout 3 - Kobe BlackDowngrade
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickel2025 profileTakeaway threatmoves between deep coverage and the slot the kind of DB who takes it back the other way
Homegrown
DLin 2 - Ian Geffrardout 2 - Lavon JohnsonEven
current room: 316 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Nose Anchor2025 profilecontrols the point of attack and doesn't move
Homegrown
Next man up
Full roster (112 players)
DBBo Mascoe, Derek Williams Jr., Graceson Littleton, Hayward Howard Jr., Jackson Duffey, Jelani McDonald, Jonah Williams, Jordon Johnson-Rubell, Kade Phillips, Kobe Black, McCoy Bruce, Nick Hudson, Samari Matthews, Toray Davis, Wardell Mack, Warren Roberson, Xavier Filsaime, Yaheim Riley, Zelus Hicks, Ziky Umeozulu
DLAlex January, Elijah Ali, Hero Kanu, Ian Geffrard, Isaiah Coleman, James Johnson, Josiah Sharma, Justus Terry, Maraad Watson, Myron Charles
LBBrad Spence, Brady Sarkisian, Colton Vasek, Darius Snow, Eric Garza, Jonathan Cunningham, Justin Cryer, Kosi Okpala, Markus Boswell, Rasheem Biles, Rocky Cummings, Ty'Anthony Smith, Tyler Atkinson, Zina Umeozulu
OLAndre Cojoe, Brandon Baker, Brooks Kieschnick Jr., Cole Hutson, Connor Robertson, Devin Coleman, Dylan Sikorski, Jackson Christian, Jaydon Chatman, John Turntine III, Jonte Newman, Jordan Coleman, Kaden Scherer, Laurence Seymore, Melvin Siani, Nicolas Robertson, Paris Patterson Jr., Robert Sweeney, Trevor Goosby
RBCarson Berger, Derrek Cooper, James Simon, Jett Walker, Michael Terry III, Raleek Brown, Ryan Niblett
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Texas
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed from Texas
Smith out while Biles and Simmons are racking up Bednarik watch buzz — Sark's trimming the roster at a position that can afford the cut right now, but depth math is unforgiving in the SEC.
- News
Cole Hutson sues NCAA for eligibility
Hutson's lawsuit isn't just a personal fight — if the age-based waiver holds, Sarkisian gets an experienced OL anchor back on a line already absorbing NFL Draft attrition from a top-heavy 2025 class.
- Recruiting
Five-star OT commits to Texas
Six starters drafted off the offensive side and Sarkisian's still building — a five-star tackle at the top of a #1 class keeps the trench depth ahead of what the NFL took out.
- News
AD rejects uniform redesign
Burnt Orange stays Burnt Orange — with Ohio State rolling into Austin and 6 draft picks to replace, Sarkisian's AD isn't burning bandwidth on a rebrand when the roster rebuild is the only redesign that matters right now.
- News
Texas LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed
Smith's dismissal thins a linebacker room that was already banking on youth — with Biles and Simmons carrying the Bednarik buzz, depth behind the stars just got shorter.
- News
Cole Hutson regains fifth year eligibility
Sark's O-line took a brutal hit losing six starters to the draft — Hutson's fifth year back plugs a hole that no recruiting class, not even a top-7 one, could've papered over this fast.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-1.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: -20.6 — unweighted, no position adjustment)RB-11.6
starter risk
S-8.9
starter risk
OT+8.1
need filled
IOL-7.8
starter risk
LB+7.1
need filled
WR-6.9
starter risk
CB-3.9
LS+2.0
low confidence
P+1.0
low confidence
DL+0.6
TE-0.2
QB-0.1
K+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★★
Dia Bell
#18 national
★★★★★
John Meredith III
#20 national
★★★★★
Tyler Atkinson
#31 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical linebacker — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
26
TX · 14CA · 3FL · 3GA · 2CO · 1LA · 1MI · 1NC · 1
TX leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
100 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Texas player grew up 205 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
24th-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%146–836 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi16%18 of 110 players
Farthest1,751 miDylan Sikorski · Sumner, WA
Closest1 miConnor Robertson · Austin, TX
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 110 of 112 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Recruiting & portal buzz
2028 4* QB Neimann Lawrence commits to Texas
2027 4* S Junior Tu'upo commits to Texas
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
How it turned out
Belief history
↑
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2025
66th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
66th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
9.5
Vegas O/U wins
(93rd among FBS)
(93rd among FBS)
Market 27pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Pollster gap
Voter spread
68 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #1, Adam Lichtenstein (South Florida Sun-Sentinel), to #5, Murray Evans (Lawton Constitution).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.
Penalties
Penalty battle
6 penalties committed, 7 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
47 penalty yards committed vs. 65 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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