SEC Texas

Head coach Steve Sarkisian · 6th season · 54-22 at Texas

Record6-23-2 SEC · T-5th
CFPNo. 7week 10 poll
Playoff80%to make the field
Nextat MissouriSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · ESPN

The rest of the season

Three real tests left: No. 15 LSU 33%, No. 19 Missouri 61%, Texas A&M 62%

Win out 12% · expect 2.5 of 4 more wins

Texas's chance to win each game left, from our model: Missouri 61%, LSU 33%, Arkansas 95%, Texas A&M 62%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from 70% to 80%, peaking at 86% before a game

70%77%W70%W77%W86%W78%L63%L75%W80%W

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 5th in the SEC · 3-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Arch Manning 1,730 · Rushing Raleek Brown 452 · Receiving Ryan Wingo 470 All player stats

The nationAP #10 · Coaches #11 · CFP #7up 1 from last week · week 10 poll
The model#6 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #8 (+20.4) · FPI #7
The marketTexas by 2.5Betting line at Missouri · our model 61% Texas

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Texas:athletics siteSEC

Schedule and results

Texas · 2026 schedule and results6-2Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 65% · 4 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now. 3 wins over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #5 to #8
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#5#34−29.5✓ +22.5Texas StateW 59-7 140Texas won 59-7 vs Texas State. Chance to win started at 98%, low 97%, high better than 99%.1-00-0Pass Manning 305 · Rush Smothers 70 · Rec Wingo 121
2Sep 12#5#4−2.5✗ −1.5Ohio StateTop 10 winW 24-23 141Texas won 24-23 vs Ohio State. Chance to win started at 65%, low 3%, high better than 99%.2-00-0Pass Manning 195 · Rush Smothers 74 · Rec V 65
3Sep 19#4#14−29.5✗ −5.5UTSAW 30-6 130Texas won 30-6 vs UTSA. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.3-00-0Pass Manning 164 · Rush Smothers 54 · Rec Coleman 59
4Sep 26#4#24−5.5✗ −2.5@TennesseeTop 25 winW 20-17 131Texas won 20-17 at Tennessee. Chance to win started at 59%, low 56%, high better than 99%.4-01-0Pass Manning 201 · Rush Brown 67 · Rec Wingo 74
5Bye week
6Oct 10#3#22−7.5✗ −10.5Oklahoma (N)L 24-27 120Texas lost 24-27 vs Oklahoma. Chance to win started at 59%, low under 1%, high 91%. Firestorm4-11-1Pass Manning 260 · Rush Cooper 41 · Rec Coleman 110
7Oct 17#5#27−13.5✗ −16.5FloridaL 24-27 131Texas lost 24-27 vs Florida. Chance to win started at 88%, low 5%, high 98%. Firestorm4-21-2Pass Manning 173 · Rush Smothers 52 · Rec V 76
8Oct 24#6#12−3✓ +4Ole MissTop 10 winW 34-27 154Texas won 34-27 vs Ole Miss. Chance to win started at 69%, low 53%, high better than 99%.5-22-2Pass Manning 212 · Rush Brown 157 · Rec Wingo 111
9Oct 31#8#85−19.5✓ +8.5Mississippi StateW 31-3 119Texas won 31-3 vs Mississippi State. Chance to win started at 94%, low 93%, high better than 99%.6-23-2Pass Manning 220 · Rush Brown 30 · Rec V 98
10Nov 7#7#29−2.5@Missouri12 pm ET · ESPN61% to win
11Nov 14#6#7−2.5@LSUtime TBA · ABC33% to win
12Nov 21Arkansastime TBA95% to win
13Nov 27−2.5@Texas A&M7:30 pm ET · ABC
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Texas, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Texas: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31Mississippi StateW 31-3280127:32+0.16637.7%1.40Best defensive stand
Oct 24Ole MissW 34-27419334:57+0.14438.4%1.37One-score win
Oct 17FloridaL 24-27272121:49-0.12641.2%1.07One-score loss
Oct 10OklahomaL 24-27382229:29-0.07735.4%1.37One-score loss
Sep 26@TennesseeW 20-17262228:37-0.14033.9%1.18Season-low EPA/play
Sep 19UTSAW 30-6400036:51+0.03947.0%0.85
Sep 12Ohio StateW 24-23336231:28+0.06348.7%1.03One-score win
Sep 5Texas StateW 59-7516129:34+0.45950.0%1.58Season-high EPA/play
Season average (8 games)3581.5+0.06641.5%1.23

Texas's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line9.5 winsover +400
Offense poorDefense eliteDefensive shape bend-don't-break

Season expectations

Win total2 booksOver/under 9.5
CFP championship#3 in field+1,100
SEC title#2 in market+1,000

Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Projected playoff bracket: No. 4 seed

Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

W 31-3 vs Mississippi State

Texas fans
r/LonghornNation
“I didnt feel like I was going to have a heart attack tonight”
3d ago
r/LonghornNation
“Really poor game from the OL and not a good day for RBs.”
3d ago

W 34-27 vs Ole Miss

Texas fans
r/LonghornNation
“raleek brown basically dragged us across the finish line. stayed in bounds, burned all their timeouts, got us that field goal. we don't win that one without him”
1w ago
r/LonghornNation
“CJ Vogel: Texas’s defense held Trinidad Chambliss to 25/52 passing tonight. The 48.1% completion percentage is the lowest of Trinidad Chambliss’s career as a…”
1w ago
Ole Miss fans on Texas
r/CFB
“Even if we lose this, I’m proud of ole miss for staying in it. We weren’t favored, and Texas needs this game to stay ranked. Still praying for a Chambliss…”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7AP #19 Missouriat Missouri · on the road
Sat Nov 14AP #15 LSUat LSU · on the road
Fri Nov 27Lone Star Showdownat Texas A&M · on the road

Texas is 6-2 with 3 stories along the way.

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W

Each gold dot is a story from that week. Tap one to read it.

All 3 Texas stories

Playoff chance, day by day

80% now · ▲ 5 points in the last week

0100%80%High 88%, Sep 27Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

Who to root for this week

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.

Range of outcomes · Texas · 2026

Texas’ most likely regular season is 9-3. 100% of outcomes land from 7-5 to 10-2.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

7 wins 11%; 8 wins 37%; 9 wins 40%; 10 wins 12%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor9-4A bowl game.
Base11-4A conference title and a CFP semifinal.
Ceiling14-2A conference title and a national title.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 48 combined points, rock fights

What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2

Game feel48rock fightscombined pts / game13th highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate3-2white-knucklein one-score games (5 of 8)2nd most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin+13.6competitiveavg scoring margin5th best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo66average paceoffensive plays / game11th fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.23some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)7th most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd103,903avg attendance2nd biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind·Written June 2026

Texas spent fifteen years as the sport's punchline, climbed back to the brink under Sarkisian and Arch Manning — and then a 2025 that missed the Playoff turned the swagger into a question.

CFP Ranking#7 CFP

Every flicker of struggle reignites the punchline the program wore for a decade — 'Texas is back?' said with a smirk. The fanbase uses it on itself now, but it wants to bury it for good.

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Texas · Game-day weather

Typical at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 77

  • noon: 77, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 77, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 106 at noon, 110 at 3:30 pm, 110 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayOffense: Poor, defense: Elite
The experience

Texas is the program that spent fifteen years explaining what it used to be, and is now remembering how to speak in present tense.

Offense: PoorDefense: EliteDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

Active arcs

Cooling
Steve Sarkisian faces fan backlash over handling of Holly Rowe controversy
Will the fallout from the Holly Rowe incident impact Steve Sarkisian’s standing with Texas fans?
Cooling
Texas alters football uniform for 2026 season
What specific changes have been made to the Texas Longhorns' uniforms?
Cooling
Kasi Currie commits to Texas over Georgia
How will this top DT recruit impact Texas's defense next season?
Read the Texas story →
Program ledgerLatest: Climbed to No. 11 in the AP Top 25 (2026, week 9)

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026 · Wk 9Climbed to No. 11 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 34-27 at home over Ole Miss↑8 · from No. 19
  • 2026 · Wk 8Fell to No. 19 in the AP Top 25Week 7 · Lost 24-27 at home to Florida↓12 · from No. 7
  • 2026 · Wk 7Fell to No. 7 in the AP Top 25Week 6 · Lost 24-27 to Oklahoma at a neutral site↓6 · from No. 1
  • 2025 · Wk 13Fell to No. 17 in both the AP Top 25 and the CFP rankingsWeek 12 · Lost 10-35 at Georgia↓7 · from No. 10
  • 2025 · Wk 11Climbed to No. 13 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Won 34-31 at home over Vanderbilt↑7 · from No. 20
  • 2025 · Wk 8Entered the AP Top 25Week 7 · Won 23-6 over Oklahoma at a neutral siteat No. 21
  • 2025 · Wk 7Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 6 · Lost 21-29 at Floridawas No. 9
  • 2025 · Wk 2Fell to No. 7 in the AP Top 25Week 1 · Lost 7-14 at Ohio State↓6 · from No. 1

Roster and recruiting

Roster72% of production back, talent #2

Roster reload: Texas

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production72%High continuity
Talent Composite#2 nationally247 composite 985.2
Portal Additions22Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses28Primary pressure: RB
Draft Loss6Heavy NFL Draft loss (6), 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#7Top-10 recruiting class
RBin 2 - Hollywood Smothers4.50out 6 - Quintrevion Wisner4.38Starter Risk
current room: 206 lbs avg (2025 roster)
IOLin 3 - Laurence Seymore3.70out 5 - Nick Brooks4.25Starter Risk
current room: 323 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 4 - Rasheem Biles4.38out 2 - Liona Lefau4.00Need Filled
current room: 235 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Linebackeris steady in every phase without a signature trait
Transferred in
WRin 2 - Cam Coleman5.00out 4 - DeAndre Moore Jr.4.50Starter Risk
current room: 198 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Deep ThreatMoney-downbeats you over the top lives on the sticks and moves the chains
Former five-star
CBin 2 - Bo Mascoe4.12out 3 - Kobe Black4.28Downgrade
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Centerfieldererases the deep middle of the field
Transferred in
DLin 2 - Ian Geffrard4.25out 2 - Lavon Johnson3.80Even
current room: 316 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Nose Anchorcontrols the point of attack and doesn't move
Transferred in
Next man up
TE · departedJack EndriesRd 7, Pk 5
NowNick Townsend4★ · FR
Next man up
Full roster (112 players)
UNKJohn Meredith III
DBBo Mascoe, Derek Williams Jr., Graceson Littleton, Hayward Howard Jr., Jackson Duffey, Jelani McDonald, Jonah Williams, Jordon Johnson-Rubell, Kade Phillips, Kobe Black, McCoy Bruce, Nick Hudson, Samari Matthews, Toray Davis, Wardell Mack, Warren Roberson, Xavier Filsaime, Yaheim Riley, Zelus Hicks, Ziky Umeozulu
DLAlex January, Elijah Ali, Hero Kanu, Ian Geffrard, Isaiah Coleman, James Johnson, Josiah Sharma, Justus Terry, Maraad Watson, Myron Charles
DTZion Williams
EDGEBrinley Tita, Colin Simmons, Jamarion Carlton, Lance Jackson, Richard Wesley, Smith Orogbo
LBBrad Spence, Brady Sarkisian, Colton Vasek, Darius Snow, Eric Garza, Jonathan Cunningham, Justin Cryer, Kosi Okpala, Markus Boswell, Rasheem Biles, Rocky Cummings, Ty'Anthony Smith, Tyler Atkinson, Zina Umeozulu
LSTrey Dubuc, Trott O'Neal
OLAndre Cojoe, Brandon Baker, Brooks Kieschnick Jr., Cole Hutson, Connor Robertson, Devin Coleman, Dylan Sikorski, Jackson Christian, Jaydon Chatman, John Turntine III, Jonte Newman, Jordan Coleman, Kaden Scherer, Laurence Seymore, Melvin Siani, Nicolas Robertson, Paris Patterson Jr., Robert Sweeney, Trevor Goosby
PMac Chiumento, Mikey Bukauskas
PKGianni Spetic, Jake Collett, Spencer Barnett
QBArch Manning, Dia Bell, Karle Lacey Jr., Luke Dunham, MJ Morris
RBCarson Berger, Derrek Cooper, James Simon, Jett Walker, Michael Terry III, Raleek Brown, Ryan Niblett
TEBryce Chambers, Charlie Jilek, Emaree Winston, Michael Masunas, Nick Townsend, Ridge Barker, Spencer Shannon, Will Randle
WRCam Coleman, Chris Stewart, Daylan Mccutcheon, Daylan Smothers, Emmett Mosley V, Evan Enderlin, Hudson Powell, Jermaine Bishop Jr., Kaliq Lockett, Kohen Brown, Rett Andersen, Ryan Wingo, Sterling Berkhalter, Ty Boatright
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Ty Knutson
QB · Spring Branch, TX
#598 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Recruiting and portal buzz

2028 4* QB Neimann Lawrence commits to Texas
71 upvotes · Jun 2026
2027 4* S Junior Tu'upo commits to Texas
61 upvotes · Jun 2026

Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 32% of FBS programs
→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

32nd percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is far more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
32nd
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
9.5
Sportsbook win total
(87th among FBS)
Market 55pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 2 books
Where voters differAP voters range from #7 to #18 (week 9)
Voter spread

70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #7, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate), to #18, Nick Jacobs (KSHB-TV).

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

RivalsRival pulse: Oklahoma bearish

Rival pulse

Texas A&M
Mixed
-4
Lone Star Showdown
Face-off →
Oklahoma
Bearish
-22
Red River Rivalry
Face-off →

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Texas

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site