Next game: at Missouri
Texas’s best edge on Missouri is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Texas offense against Missouri defense
Missouri offense against Texas defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical Passer · +0.31 EPA/play | 16 | 8 | 141 / 217 | 65.0 | 1730 #52 FBS | 8.0 | 15 #27 FBS | 7 | 148.3 | 48 | 53.3 | 6.4 | 10.0 | |
Yards by week → Vertical passerElite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #13 right now. This week's matchup — QB Manning pushes it downfield on every look. Leavitt is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.6 76th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate3.2% bottom 24th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Arch Manning's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.12 EPA/play | — | 8 | 92 | 452 | 4.9 | 5 | 47 | 18.7 | 13.2 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 92 carries and 12 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Brown does a little of everything without one standout trait. Jones is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry5.5 59th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception4.5 bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Raleek Brown's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.24 EPA/play | 2 | 6 | 69 | 283 | 4.1 | 2 | 45 | 24.6 | 11.6 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 69 carries and 12 catches in 6 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Daylan Smothers's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.26 EPA/play | 11 | 4 | 22 | 104 | 4.7 | 1 | 19 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.10 EPA/play | 5 | 6 | 29 | 103 | 3.6 | 1 | 16 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.69 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 36 | 470 | 13.1 | 4 #70 FBS | 50 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 36 catches and 2 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Wingo moves the chains on third down. Jr. is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception12.9 bottom 43th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume36 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ryan Wingo's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.80 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 25 | 419 | 16.8 | 1 | 62 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 25 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Emmett Mosley V's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +1.04 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 22 | 395 | 18.0 | 7 #17 FBS | 47 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Coleman beats you over the top. Jr. is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception17.1 84th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate31.8% 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Cam Coleman's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.25 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 16 | 151 | 9.4 | 1 | 29 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Jr. moves the chains on third down. Jr. is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception6.7 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume16 bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jermaine Bishop Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| +0.16 EPA/play | 85 | 5 | 7 | 70 | 10 | 0 | 22 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.04 EPA/play | 81 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 | 9 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 93 | 8 | 25 | 10 | 4.5 | 1 | 4 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — 25 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight309 lb 81th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Hero Kanu's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 95 | 8 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 19 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight375 lb 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ian Geffrard's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 88 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 19 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.8% 52th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Maraad Watson's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 97 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight308 lb 80th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Alex January's full player page | |||||||
| 15 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 8 | 61 | 31 | 30 | 9.5 #23 FBS | 4 | 3 | 3 #16 FBS |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 61 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume61 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate15.6% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rasheem Biles's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 28 | 8 | 46 | 19 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 46 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.7% 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.3% bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Justin Cryer's full player page | |||||||||
| Finisher | 1 | 6 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 15.5 #1 FBS | 10 #1 FBS | 0 | 0 |
FinisherTurns pressure into sacks — when he gets there, he finishes. 24 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 10 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Pressure-to-sack conversion0.7 90th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Colin Simmons's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 40 | 6 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 22 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.8% bottom 14th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Lance Jackson's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 19 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 21 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.0% 50th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Zina Umeozulu's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 14 | 8 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.9% bottom 19th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brad Spence's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 92 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Colton Vasek's full player page | |||||||||
| 99 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 4 | 8 | 63 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 63 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume63 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jelani McDonald's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 8 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Derek Williams Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 8 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 34 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 5-star, 2025 class View Kade Phillips's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 29 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 28 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate17.9% 91th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Graceson Littleton's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 5 | 8 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Bo Mascoe's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Warren Roberson's full player page | |||||||
| 6 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 44 | 8 | 12/13 | 92.3 | 30/30 | 66 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 43 | 7 | 35 | 1503 | 42.9 | 57 | 8 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.49 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 5 | 74 | 14.8 | 0 | 21 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.49 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 20 | 217 | 10.9 | 1 | 63 |
Biggest plays from Texas’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Texas’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:25 · Texas down 6, takes the leadDaylan Smothers runs 1 yard for a touchdownOhio State at Texas, week 2Q4, 0:25 · Texas 24, Ohio State 230:25Go-ahead touchdown for Texas with 0:25 left0:25Go-ahead touchdown for Texas with 0:25 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Texas with 0:25 leftH.Smothers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 10:07 · Oklahoma breaks the tiePeyton Bowen takes an interception 42 yards for a pick-sixTexas at Oklahoma, week 6Q4, 10:07 · Oklahoma 24, Texas 1742Pick-six42Pick-sixPick-sixA.Manning pass intercepted by P.Bowen at UT42 P.Bowen return 42 yards to the UT00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q4, 6:32 · Texas down 7, ties itArch Manning finds Jermaine Bishop Jr. for a 15-yard touchdownTexas at Oklahoma, week 6Q4, 6:32 · Texas 24, Oklahoma 24▲28%Texas’s chance to win, 25% to 53%▲28%Texas’s chance to win, 25% to 53%A.Manning pass complete short left to J.Bishop Jr. caught at OU04, for 15 yards to the OU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 13:57 · Ole Miss down 7, ties itTrinidad Chambliss finds Horatio Fields for a 27-yard touchdownOle Miss at Texas, week 8Q4, 13:57 · Ole Miss 24, Texas 24▲27%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 13% to 40%▲27%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 13% to 40%T.Chambliss pass complete deep left to H.Fields caught at TEXAS00, for 27 yards to the TEXAS00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q4, 14:48 · Oklahoma down 7, ties itLloyd Avant runs 2 yards for a touchdownTexas at Oklahoma, week 6Q4, 14:48 · Oklahoma 17, Texas 17▲22%Oklahoma’s chance to win, 20% to 42%▲22%Oklahoma’s chance to win, 20% to 42%L.Avant rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UT00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 0:19 · Texas tiedCourtland Guillory intercepts Arch ManningTexas at Oklahoma, week 6Q4, 0:19 · Texas 24, Oklahoma 24▼22%Texas’s chance to win, 66% to 44%▼22%Texas’s chance to win, 66% to 44%A.Manning pass intercepted by C.Guillory at OU39 QB hurried by O.Robinson, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Texas lost to Florida after being 93% to win; the closest win was against Ohio State, down to 2%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Texas during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Texas
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · TexasJelani McDonald leads Texas with 63 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+19 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Texas fields a struggling offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Texas reads strongest in red-zone defense (top 3%) and explosive plays allowed (top 4%); the crux lives in rushing EPA, where Texas sits at the 13th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Texas is worth +7.3 points more at home than on the road.
Top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile of 133 programs
82% at home, 63% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (46-10 home, 22-13 away). Interval ±3.4.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Texas has beaten the number by +4.5 more at home than away over 91 games. That is inside the ±5.5 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium seats 100,119 and has averaged 102% full (102,027, 33 games reported). Visitors cover a median 555 miles to get here since 2018 — 36th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 16% of the 2026 roster (18 of 110 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downDeAndre Moore Jr. is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatDeAndre Moore Jr. is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatEmmett Mosley V is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatJack Endries is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatParker Livingstone is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Garbage timeTre Wisner does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Position battles
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Ryan Wingo (WR) and Emaree Winston (TE) split the targets (50/65 vs 15/65) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Texas actually scores
11th percentile quality, 91st percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Texas’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 80th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 59th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Texas hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
27th percentile success on standard downs, 61st on passing downs — a 34-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Texas by half
1st-half offense ranks 25th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 30th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Texas’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.07; 19th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.00. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.46 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Texas’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Texas’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.1% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 193-play sample) — mid-pack, 85 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Texas’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.7% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 227-play sample) — mid-pack, 32 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
30% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — below the ~48% league baseline.
3 of 10 forced fumbles recovered; 6 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
15% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
6 interceptions of 40 disrupted passes (34 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
53 penalties committed, 54 drawn on opponents — ceding 42 yards of field position.
502 penalty yards committed vs. 460 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Texas
Most similar programs · TexasReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Texas’s breakout has happened before — and 3 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Usual during the game around Nov 20: 63°, between 55° and 71° in about 7 in 10 games (23 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 62°, and 8 in 10 ran between 45° and 83° (44 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.