The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 11 Ohio State 17%, Oregon 31%, No. 5 UCLA 35%
Win out 2% · expect 1.7 of 4 more wins
Michigan's chance to win each game left, from our model: Michigan State 85%, Oregon 31%, UCLA 35%, Ohio State 17%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 29% to 3%, peaking at 29% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 11th in the Big Ten · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Bryce Underwood 924 · Rushing Jordan Marshall 319 · Receiving JJ Buchanan 602 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Michigan:athletics siteBig TenXYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #19 | #24 | −27.5✗ −26.5 | Western Michigan | W 13-12 115 Firestorm | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Underwood 170 · Rush Underwood 47 · Rec Buchanan 126 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #18 | #19 | +5.5✓ +12.5 | OklahomaTop 25 win | W 17-10 120 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Underwood 111 · Rush Underwood 87 · Rec Buchanan 48 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #18 | #197 | −34.5✓ +0.5 | UTEP | W 52-17 117 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Underwood 223 · Rush Hiter 62 · Rec Marsh 105 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #21 | #19 | −4.5✗ −5.5 | Iowa | L 19-20 127 Firestorm | 3-1 | 0-1 | Pass Underwood 276 · Rush Marshall 59 · Rec Buchanan 130 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #20 | #43 | −6.5✗ −12.5 | @Minnesota | L 14-20 114 | 3-2 | 0-2 | Pass Underwood 101 · Rush Marshall 50 · Rec Buchanan 50 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #28 | #43 | −6✗ −3 | Penn State | W 21-18 127 | 4-2 | 1-2 | Pass Carr 47 · Rush Hiter 78 · Rec Buchanan 36 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #29 | #3 | +7.5✓ +0.5 | Indiana | L 6-13 127 | 4-3 | 1-3 | Pass Carr 167 · Rush Marshall 26 · Rec Buchanan 57 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #25 | #100 | −16.5✗ −9.5 | @Rutgers | W 28-21 110 | 5-3 | 2-3 | Pass Carr 266 · Rush Hiter 76 · Rec Buchanan 63 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #30 | #123 | −13.5 | Michigan State | 7:30 pm ET85% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #30 | #11 | +13.5 | @Oregon | time TBA31% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | UCLA | time TBA35% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | +13.5 | @Ohio State | 12 pm ET · FOX | |||||
Win chances are our model for Michigan, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Michigan: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Rutgers | W 28-21 | 427 | 0 | 39:06 | +0.293 | 47.4% | 1.20 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 24 | Indiana | L 6-13 | 224 | 2 | 33:44 | -0.169 | 32.4% | 0.93 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | Penn State | W 21-18 | 301 | 2 | 27:58 | +0.096 | 39.6% | 1.42 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Minnesota | L 14-20 | 180 | 3 | 22:24 | -0.256 | 37.3% | 0.99 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Iowa | L 19-20 | 429 | 1 | 34:29 | +0.116 | 44.9% | 1.05 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | UTEP | W 52-17 | 431 | 2 | 31:38 | +0.330 | 54.9% | 1.13 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Oklahoma | W 17-10 | 263 | 0 | 33:17 | +0.033 | 27.6% | 1.63 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | Western Michigan | W 13-12 | 276 | 3 | 19:52 | +0.236 | 43.8% | 1.08 | One-score win |
| Season average (8 games) | 316 | 1.6 | +0.085 | 41.0% | 1.18 | ||||
Michigan's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
If you have a guy that’s got a little more of a hot hand than someone else, then you stick with that guy
3% now · ▲ 1 point in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Michigan has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-10% tier since 2025, and the market projects 7.5 wins, raising questions about whether Whittingham’s first season can.
Statusfront page
Whittingham, who led Utah to a 9-4 record, inherits a 40% production return and a program that hasn't won a national title since 1997 — the identity anchor is the weight, not the numbers.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Michigan · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 5%; 6 wins 38%; 7 wins 40%; 8 wins 14%; 9 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Kyle Whittingham took over as Michigan's head coach, replacing Biff Poggi. It is replaces 9-year head coach Jim Harbaugh (89-25). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is divided, and believers and skeptics both cite evidence.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
This event was in 363 of 32744 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (1261 posts): 15% positive · 38% neutral · 47% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Michigan has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 17% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 10%. It is a 29-8 record over the last three regular seasons. The three-year power rating shows a slip, and the coverage is split on whether it is a dip or a trend.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Michigan is the sport's winningest program — the keeper of the record book — handing the keys to a 21-year Utah builder and a sophomore phenom to steady a house that just shook from the inside.
The fanbase has heard for two years that the 2023 title carries an asterisk and that Michigan is a story the rest of the sport gets to narrate; Michigan Men say the ledger answers all of it, and…
Michigan · Game-day weather
Typical at Michigan Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 7:30 pm Saturdays 84
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 110 at noon, 111 at 3:30 pm, 110 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Michigan is the nation's winningest program, and still plays like the total isn't finished.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.
Range of outcomes · Michigan · 2026