Michigan

2-0AP #19

Big Ten · Kyle Whittingham, year 1 (2-0) · Michigan Stadium · 107,601 · 111,059 avg in 2026

The nationAP #19 · Coaches #19
The model#18 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #26 (+12.2) · FPI #22
The marketMichigan by 35vs UTEP · our model 94% Michigan · a number, not a pick

LastW 17–10 vs Oklahoma · Sat Sep 12 · John Henry Daley 1 sacks, 3 TFL, 8 tackles

Nextvs UTEP · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 pm ET · Michigan Stadium · Michigan by 35 · first meeting on record · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
15.0
Pts allowed/game
11.0
Total yards/gm#130 / 138 · 6th pct
269.5
Rush yards/gm#106 / 138 · 24th pct
129.0
Pass yards/gm#126 / 138 · 9th pct
140.5
Yards allowed/gm#30 / 138 · 79th pct
255.0
Rush yds allowed/gmT-#67 / 138 · 51st pct
116.0
SacksT-#38 / 138 · 65th pct
5
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down convT-#121 / 138 · 12th pct
30.4%
All 88 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
539269.5/gm5.08/play#130 / 138 · 6th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#17 / 18 · 8th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
510255.0/gm3.95/play#30 / 138 · 79th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#9 / 18 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
258129.0/gm2.43/play#106 / 138 · 24th pct#55 / 69 · 21st pct#13 / 18 · 31st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
232116.0/gm1.80/playT-#67 / 138 · 51st pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#10 / 18 · 47th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6633.0/gmT-#96 / 138 · 28th pctT-#47 / 69 · 29th pctT-#10 / 18 · 42nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7537.5/gmT-#99 / 138 · 28th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#14 / 18 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#77 / 138 · 34th pctT-#45 / 69 · 28th pctT-#10 / 18 · 39th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 69 · 88th pctT-#1 / 18 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
281140.5/gm2.65/play#126 / 138 · 9th pct#68 / 69 · 2nd pct#17 / 18 · 8th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
278139.0/gm2.16/play#20 / 138 · 86th pct#17 / 69 · 76th pct#6 / 18 · 69th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
4020.0/gm#123 / 138 · 11th pct#64 / 69 · 8th pct#16 / 18 · 14th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5427.0/gmT-#47 / 138 · 66th pctT-#31 / 69 · 55th pctT-#13 / 18 · 28th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
2110.5/gm#129 / 138 · 7th pct#66 / 69 · 5th pct#17 / 18 · 8th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3216.0/gmT-#43 / 138 · 67th pctT-#26 / 69 · 60th pctT-#8 / 18 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
10.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 11th pctT-#60 / 69 · 8th pctT-#14 / 18 · 17th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#4 / 18 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
114.8114.8#97 / 115 · 16th pct#54 / 59 · 9th pct#14 / 16 · 16th pct#11 / 13 · 23rd pct
Opp
104.9104.9#20 / 91 · 79th pct#16 / 41 · 62nd pct#5 / 13 · 69th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 69 · 53rd pctT-#5 / 18 · 64th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 69 · 64th pctT-#3 / 18 · 69th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
52.5/gmT-#38 / 138 · 65th pctT-#21 / 69 · 60th pctT-#7 / 18 · 61st pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#61 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#35 / 69 · 46th pctT-#11 / 18 · 39th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
147.0/gmT-#29 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 69 · 68th pctT-#5 / 18 · 69th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
73.5/gmT-#30 / 138 · 76th pctT-#18 / 69 · 70th pctT-#6 / 18 · 64th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
2613.0/gm#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#17 / 18 · 8th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3316.5/gmT-#53 / 138 · 61st pctT-#39 / 69 · 43rd pct#10 / 18 · 47th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
73.5/gmT-#117 / 138 · 13th pctT-#63 / 69 · 7th pctT-#16 / 18 · 11th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 39th pctT-#50 / 69 · 28th pct#15 / 18 · 19th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2311.5/gmT-#91 / 138 · 30th pctT-#43 / 69 · 34th pctT-#12 / 18 · 33rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3115.5/gmT-#104 / 138 · 23rd pctT-#55 / 69 · 18th pctT-#15 / 18 · 17th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 69 · 49th pctT-#8 / 18 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 91st pctT-#1 / 69 · 90th pctT-#1 / 18 · 83rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
21.0/gmT-#98 / 138 · 22nd pctT-#45 / 69 · 29th pctT-#14 / 18 · 19th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 74th pctT-#10 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#5 / 18 · 61st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
53:0926:34/gm#122 / 138 · 12th pct#64 / 69 · 8th pct#15 / 18 · 19th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
66:5133:26/gm#113 / 138 · 18th pct#64 / 69 · 8th pct#15 / 18 · 19th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.45 EPA/play19221 / 3953.82817.211117.74874.4
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.20 EPA/play23222763.5115
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+1.04 EPA/play628174
#43 FBS
21.8147
+0.03 EPA/play325285.6012

2026 stat leaders · Michigan

through 2 games

Troy Bowles leads Michigan with 21 tackles through 2 games.

1. Troy Bowles LB 21 tackles
2. Nathaniel Staehling LB 16 tackles
3. Chris Bracy S 15 tackles
4. JJ Buchanan WR 174 receiving yards
5. Jyaire Hill CB 12 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Michigan fields a capable run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
59th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
59% run plays
Tempo
68th pct success, 14th explosiveness
Defense
67th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
95th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Michigan · 2025

Michigan reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 5%) and rushing epa (top 14%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Michigan sits at the 13th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.18
59th
Success Rate +0.44
68th
Explosive Plays +1.18
14th
Rushing EPA +0.22
86th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.11
67th
Success Rate Allowed +0.41
51st
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.13
95th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.22
56th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.19
28th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.03
72nd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Michigan · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Michigan is worth +4.2 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 52nd percentile of 133 programs

87% at home, 69% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (48–7 home, 25–11 away). Interval ±4.2.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Michigan has beaten the number by −0.6 more at home than away over 73 games — inside the ±7.0 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Michigan Stadium seats 107,601 and has averaged 103% full (110,429, 31 games reported). Visitors cover a median 321 miles to get here since 2018 — 43rd-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 10% of the 2026 roster (11 of 115 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 55 home games since 2018.

Home48–7Away25–11Edge+4.2 ±4.2Visitor trip321 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Michigan hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

2nd percentile success on standard downs, 62nd on passing downs — a 60-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantMichiganWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Michigan

CFB Zeitgeist

#18

+7.5

SP+

#26

+12.2

FPI

#22

+14.4

Elo

#25

1702

The national models put Michigan between 22nd and 26th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 18th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Michigan

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

Michigan’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.

Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.

Texas 1961–1966
kept climbing
Florida 1973–1978
held the gain
Stanford 1990–1995
fell back
LSU 2005–2010
fell back

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

59°F average kickoff temp; 12% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.

Based on 84 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site