Heisman / Players / Jordan Marshall /Michigan

Jordan Marshall

RB · Michigan · So · #23

Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22

932 yards, 10 touchdowns, and a top-10 national ranking question already swirling around a sophomore.

932RUSH YDS10RUSH TD150CARRIES

RUSHING VALUE · WEPA

+0.22

via your WEPA model · 2025 · 149 plays

Read the story so far

Jordan Marshall carried the ball 150 times for 932 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2025, posting a +0.22 rushing value and inheriting the starting job from Kalel Mullings. The conversation entering 2026 is whether that production signals a sustained force or a one-year opportunity. Reddit threads praised Tony Alford's coaching influence and Marshall's timing, stepping up when Haynes was unavailable. Sports Illustrated has already floated a top-10 national ranking for him. The room is not settled.

Savion Hiter is arriving, and how Michigan's backfield sorts itself out this offseason will tell everyone exactly how much the program trusts what Marshall built last year.

RB successioncontinuity

Inherited fromKalel Mullings 4★

Why nowThe 2026 outlook is the live story — the offseason looks forward.

season totals
via your WEPA model · 2025 · 149 plays
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Michigan for 2026As of Jun 22, 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Michigan for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Running back · Michigan

Returning around him

40% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
6 Michigan players drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: -16 net (17 in / 33 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Michigan · Last season: 9-4 (AP #18) · Talent rank #11 · 2026 recruiting class #6

RB · MICHIGAN · BIG TEN

Jordan Marshall

2
#23
5-11 | 216 lb
West Chester, OH

CFB Zeitgeist Score

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 89th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#850

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Hype = tape +9aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 97th percentile of RBs; the tape says 87th — the discourse is fair.

Aura — fan perception97th pctl

Production — on-field87th pctl

n=67 mentions · cohort: RBs · 140 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_rushing

In Their Words 404 windows · 2025 fan posts

jordan×39.4haynes×30.5marsh×26.7marshall×19.1motion×76.3guarnera×101.7blown×305.1efobi×76.3

“Spring Game swag I don’t think I’ve seen this posted yet, but they gave away these shirts at the spring game. My son got signatures from Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter.”

reddit/MichiganWolverines · fan post, verbatim

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2024–2025

1202024

9322025

+677%

Up 677% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★★

#78 national

CFB

College

Michigan

2024–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB

Class2

Jersey23

Measurements5-11 | 216 lb

HometownWest Chester, OH

Primary teamMichigan

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 78 recruit

Composite rating 0.9606 HighSchool

Signed with Michigan 2024

Origin Archbishop Moeller Cincinnati, OH, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2024	4-star \| 0.9606	No. 78 recruit \| HighSchool \| Michigan

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file

Latest destination -- --

Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD

Season	Move	Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#850Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#868Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Michigan

Composite

0.9606

#78 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Quietly Bullish

Sample 64 mentions

Confidence HIGH

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=64
National · n=6

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game

Through 11g

932Rush yards

150Carries

10Rush TDs

Per game

84.7Rush yards

14Carries

1Rush TDs

Projected (13g)

1,101Rush yards

177Carries

12Rush TDs

✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 932.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 932): needs 34/game over remaining 2.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 932): needs 284/game over remaining 2.

✓ Hit 10 rushing TDs · finished with 10.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 10): needs 2.5/game over remaining 2.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 10): needs 5/game over remaining 2.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Jordan Marshall's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Michigan, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #850 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 22.9% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 78 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Scrimmage yards 1,024 932 rush | 92 rec | #49/735 (93rd pct)

Rush TD 10 150 carries | #33/739 (96th pct)

Yards/carry 6.2 Per-rush efficiency | #99/735 (87th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Workhorse | Efficient runner against FBS RB peers.

WorkhorseEfficient runner

Rushing

CAR

150 91st

YDS

932 93rd

YPC

6.2 87th

10 96th

Receiving

REC

9 57th

YDS

92 67th

YPR

10.2 79th

0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 34-17vs New Mexico	11	29	2.6	0	5
Wk 2	L 13-24@ Oklahoma	9	28	3.1	0	5
Wk 3	W 63-3vs Central Michigan	10	52	5.2	2	15
Wk 4	W 30-27@ Nebraska	6	80	13.3	1	54
Wk 6	W 24-10vs Wisconsin	9	44	4.9	0	19
Wk 7	L 13-31@ USC	14	68	4.9	0	13
Wk 8	W 24-7vs Washington	25	133	5.3	1	14
Wk 9	W 31-20@ Michigan State	15	110	7.3	1	56
Wk 10	W 21-16vs Purdue	25	185	7.4	3	54	Season-high 185 yds
Wk 12	W 24-22@ Northwestern	19	142	7.5	2	65
Wk 14	L 9-27vs Ohio State	7	61	8.7	0	36
Total		150	932	6.4	10	65

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2024Michigan8-5HC: Sherrone Moore · Run-heavy

2025Michigan9-4HC: Sherrone Moore · Run-leaning

Season	Team
2025	Michigan	150	932	6.2	10	--
2024	Michigan	31	120	3.9	0	--
Career	2 loaded seasons	181	1,052	5.8	10	--

Season	Team
2025	Michigan	9	92	10.2	0	--
2024	Michigan	--	--	--	--	--
Career	2 loaded seasons	9	92	10.2	0	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 9 92 rec yds | #236/552 (57th pct)

Usage 22.9% 37.1% rush share | #65/738 (91st pct)

Rushing WEPA +0.22 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #43/362 (88th pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Rushing	Rushing yards	932	#49/735	93rd pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rush TD	10	#33/739	96th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing	Yards / carry	6.2	#99/735	87th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receptions	9	#236/552	57th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving yards	92	#184/548	67th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.22	#43/362	88th pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 149 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage	Role share	22.9%	#65/738	91st pct	Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing	Carries	150	#69/739	91st pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	65	#81/733	89th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving LONG	25	#166/540	69th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Yards / catch	10.2	#118/548	79th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving TD	0	#169/552	70th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage	Rush share	37.1%	#77/738	90th pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage	Standard-down usage	26.1%	#70/738	91st pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage	2nd-down usage	25.6%	#46/738	94th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	1st-down usage	24.8%	#84/738	89th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Passing-down usage	15.5%	#55/738	93rd pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage	3rd-down usage	15.1%	#69/738	91st pct	Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Pass share	4.8%	#172/738	77th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS RB

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home6g	84.0	5.7	1.0
Road5g	85.6	7.2	0.8

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Wins8g	96.9	6.7	1.2
Losses3g	52.3	5.6	0.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	50.2	5.7	0.5
Weeks 8+5g	126	7.2	1.4

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

77All-Conference

7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush tds (89th). Strength: yards / carry (88th).

Rush TDs#33 / 349 · 89th pct

10rush

Yards / carry#38 / 349 · 89th pct

6.2rush

Rush yards#49 / 349 · 86th pct

932rush

Carries#69 / 349 · 80th pct

150rush

Long run#75 / 349 · 78th pct

65rush

Rec yards#167 / 338 · 51st pct

92rece

Receptions#214 / 338 · 35th pct

9rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

EPA / dropback—

awaiting

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_rushing0.22High (p75–p90) (n=178)Elite (≥p90) (n=184)High (p75–p90) (n=362)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics

Jordan MarshallMichiganJalen BuckleyWestern Michigan· 91% simAlex TeczaNavy· 89% simEvan DickensLiberty· 87% sim

Rush TDs

89
Marshall

87
Buckley

89
Tecza

99
Dickens

Yards / carry

89
Marshall

74
Buckley

79
Tecza

82
Dickens

Rush yards

86
Marshall

89
Buckley

85
Tecza

97
Dickens

Carries

80
Marshall

88
Buckley

83
Tecza

96
Dickens

Long run

78
Marshall

81
Buckley

91
Tecza

99
Dickens

Rec yards

51
Marshall

43
Buckley

66
Tecza

45
Dickens

Receptions

35
Marshall

49
Buckley

54
Tecza

23
Dickens

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Speed Merchant

Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ja'Kobi Jackson’s 2024 season.

Ja'Kobi Jackson

77%match

Florida · 2024

Kennedy Brooks

Oklahoma · 2021

74%

Antario Brown

Northern Illinois · 2021

70%

Owen Allen

Air Force · 2025

69%

Bryson Washington

Baylor · 2024

72%

Matches Ja'Kobi on

Receiving share

Weight

Yards / carry

Differs from Ja'Kobi on

Class year (lower)

EPA / carry (adj) (lower)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Owen Allen's sophomore season at Air Force (2025).

Owen Allen

72%match

Air Force · 2025

Cameron Dickey

Texas Tech · 2025

74%

Zamir White

Georgia · 2021

All-SECNFL Rd 4

69%

Kobe Pace

Clemson · 2021

68%

TreVeyon Henderson

Ohio State · 2022

All-Big TenNFL Rd 2 · Pk 6

67%

Matches Owen on

Weight

Yards / carry

EPA / carry (adj)

Differs from Owen on

Class year (lower)

Rush TD rate (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Sherrone Moore

Pass share

40.9%

340 pass / 492 run

Plays / game

64.0

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.4%

256 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

1 coach

2024

Sherrone Moore

Michigan

2025

Sherrone Moore

Michigan

Played his entire career under Sherrone Moore.

HometownWest Chester, OH

Height5'11"

Weight216 lb

Class2

PositionRB

Jersey23

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	Michigan	RB2	#850	#868	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| Big Ten

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	Michigan	Big Ten	RB	2	No. 23 \| 5-11 \| 216 lb \| West Chester, OH
2024	Michigan	Big Ten	RB	2	No. 23 \| 5-11 \| 216 lb \| West Chester, OH

Jordan Marshall

R07 · Impact starter

+677%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Jordan Marshall

How rival fanbases talk about Jordan Marshall

Awaiting candidate metric

What made this player interesting

2025 Season · Final

RB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Speed Merchant

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

No formal honors on the ledger yet

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline