cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Jake Garcia /Michigan

Jake Garcia

QB · Michigan · Sr · #12

Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.

IN PORTALIn transfer portal — destination TBD (from Michigan)

In Portal · 2026

In transfer portal

2025Michigan
DestinationTBD

QB · MICHIGAN · BIG TEN

Jake Garcia

  • 4
  • #12
  • 6-2 | 210 lb
  • Whittier, CA

CFB Zeitgeist QB Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

#1321

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R03 · Backup

Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2021–2022
1472021
8032022

+446%

Up 446% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#48 national
CFB
College
Miami
2021–2022
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB
Class4
Jersey12
Measurements6-2 | 210 lb
HometownWhittier, CA
Primary teamMichigan

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 48 recruit
Composite rating 0.9761 HighSchool
Signed with Miami 2021
Origin Grayson Whittier, CA, USA
Class Profile Context
2021 4-star | 0.9761 No. 48 recruit | HighSchool | Miami

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 4 Programs changed on file
Latest destination -- 2026
Transfer stars 4-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 15, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Michigan -> -- 4-star | Immediate
2025 East Carolina -> Michigan 3-star | 0.8300 | Immediate
2024 Missouri -> East Carolina 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate
2023 Miami -> Missouri 4-star | 0.9000 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#1321Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#1400Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Miami

Composite

0.9761

#48 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Jake Garcia

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Jake Garcia

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Jake Garcia's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Michigan, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #1321 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 21.4% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 48 recruit

2022 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2022 season snapshot | final

2022 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Pass yards 803 5 TD | 4 INT | #151/382 (61st pct)
Completion rate 60.7% 68/112 completions | #199/383 (48th pct)
Yards/attempt 7.2 Explosiveness through the air | #156/382 (59th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

Pocket-leaning

2022 Season · Final

2022 season snapshot | final

Passing Efficiency

CMP
68 60th
ATT
112 62nd
CMP%
60.7% 48th
Y/A
7.2 59th

Passing Production

YDS
803 61st
TD
5 64th
INT
4 36th

Rushing

CAR
25 53rd
YDS
-75 2nd
YPC
-3.0 4th
TD
0 44th

Game Log

Week-by-week box

No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Miami7-5HC: Jess Simpson · Balanced
2022Miami5-7HC: Mario Cristobal · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2022Miami6811260.7%8037.254128.5----
2021Miami111478.6%14710.520213.9----
Career2 loaded seasons7912662.7%9507.574138.0----
SeasonTeam
2022Miami25-75-3.00--
2021Miami14545.00--
Career2 loaded seasons26-30-1.20--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact -75 0 rush TD | #402/408 (2nd pct)
Usage 21.4% 51.9% pass share | 2.4% rush share | #209/428 (51st pct)
Passing WEPA -- Adjusted value feed still loading
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Passing Passing yards 803 #151/382 61st pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Pass TD 5 #149/407 64th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing Completions 68 #155/383 60th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Completion % 60.7% #199/383 48th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing Yards / attempt 7.2 #156/382 59th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing yards -75 #402/408 2nd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Usage Role share 21.4% #209/428 51st pct Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing Attempts 112 #156/407 62nd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Interceptions 4 #263/407 36th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing Carries 25 #192/408 53rd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing LONG 14 #232/391 41st pct Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #230/408 44th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing Yards / carry -3.0 #390/407 4th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage Pass share 51.9% #180/428 58th pct Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage Passing-down usage 25.0% #221/428 49th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage 3rd-down usage 22.2% #232/428 46th pct Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 2nd-down usage 21.7% #207/428 52nd pct Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 1st-down usage 21.6% #194/428 55th pct Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Standard-down usage 20.7% #199/428 54th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage Rush share 2.4% #353/428 18th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 3 #213/258 18th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits

Per-game splits

Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

Advanced Savant · QB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).
DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Sherrone Moore

Pass share

40.9%

340 pass / 492 run

Plays / game

64.0

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.4%

256 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2022

1 coach
2021
Jim Harbaugh
Michigan
2022
Jim Harbaugh
Michigan

Played his entire career under Jim Harbaugh.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownWhittier, CA
Height6'2"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey12

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 East Carolina QB4 #1321 #1400 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | American Athletic
2023 Missouri QB4 #414 #234 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | SEC
2022 Miami QB4 #779 #973 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | ACC
2021 Miami QB4 #336 #365 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | ACC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Michigan Big Ten QB 4 No. 12 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Whittier, CA
2024 East Carolina American Athletic QB 4 No. 12 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Whittier, CA
2023 Missouri SEC QB 4 No. 12 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Whittier, CA
2022 Miami ACC QB 4 No. 12 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Whittier, CA
2021 Miami ACC QB 4 No. 12 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Whittier, CA