The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Blake Harrell

Blake Harrell moved East Carolina from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.

14–5

2024–now · 1 stint

East Carolina

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In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

East Carolina, 3 seasons (active)

+4.1

Regional Program II → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

East Carolina5.5pt#224 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–1 against his rivals.

Rivalry record

0–1

0.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

1–3

25.0% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Buyout owed

$2,245,833

bigger than 23% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

NC State0–10%

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–1 0.0%

Power Program

1–0 100.0%

National Program

0–5 0.0%

Regional Program

5–0 100.0%

Coaching career

2024–now

East Carolinacaretaker

Regional Program II → Regional Program I

Blake Harrell moved East Carolina from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.

9th-best East Carolina tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+17.5 pts

#44 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

+11.0 pts

#63 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	3–4	9–4	0–0
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#73	#77	#94
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	47.6	44.0	49.6
Coordinators
OC	John David Baker	John David Baker	Jordan Davis
DC	Blake Harrell	Josh Aldridge	Jordon Hankins / Roy Tesh
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	81	50	9
Defense	34	85	39
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	45.4	45.0	46.5
Red-zone pass%	35.0	33.9	42.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	27.8	54.8	—

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-25

#35 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 223 lbs

across 50 of 65 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

-1.0 lbs

#240 of 255 · less than most

Avg. class year

#111 of 255 · a typical amount

Top states: NC (11), GA (5), FL (5), TX (4), TN (4)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

53.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

58.2

position-weighted

Net

-4.3

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Katin Houser (QB) from Michigan State

Biggest loss: Mason Garcia (QB) to Austin Peay

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: John David Baker → Jordan Davis · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 45.0% → 46.5% (+1.5 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 14% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Josh Aldridge → Jordon Hankins / co-Roy Tesh · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

217 lbs

6′2″ avg · #265 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

204 lbs

5′11″ avg · #534 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

193 lbs

6′1″ avg · #374 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

235 lbs

6′3″ avg · #668 of 731 · less than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

307 lbs

6′5″ avg · #472 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

270 lbs

6′3″ avg · #662 of 753 · less than most

Cornerback

184 lbs

6′0″ avg · #655 of 771 · less than most

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys P via the portal

75%

#5 of 29 stints

Buys Quarterback via the portal

67%

#16 of 206 stints

Grows Edge from high school

78%

#173 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2024: Beat NC State 26–21 Go Bowling Military Bowl2025: Beat Pittsburgh 23–17 Go Bowling Military Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Shavon Revel Jr. (2025), Anthony Smith (2026)

14–5