Blake Harrell

Head coach · East Carolina
3rd season · since 2024

At school18-9since 2024 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool5% · 59th of 132 jobsLast gameW 17-9vs Temple · Oct 31Nextvs South FloridaFri Nov 6 · 7:30 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 2-0

2024Military BowlW 26-212025Military BowlW 23-17

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 17-9 vs. Temple Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. South Florida Fri Nov 6
  • Stature86th of 138 FBS programs

Friday: vs. South Florida

Fri Nov 6, 7:30 pm ET ESPN2 · South Florida is 6-2 · First meeting between Harrell and Brian Hartline as head coaches · East Carolina’s chance to win: 39% (the site’s model)

His week

ECUAthletics · 271 views by Wednesday

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Offense: 114th of 138 per play. Defense: 33rd.

Offense, per play114thOffense, staying on schedule129thDefense, per play33rdPass defense13thWorstBest
Offense, per play114th of 138Offense, staying on schedule129th of 138Defense, per play33rd of 138Pass defense13th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is East Carolina. The other two rows are where East Carolina stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Fri Nov 6vs. South Florida (6-2)ESPN239%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Charlotte (1-7)ESPN+79%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Army (5-3)CBS Sports Network32%
  4. Fri Nov 27vs. Florida Atlantic (5-3)65%

Percent: East Carolina’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where East Carolina stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

78th84th90thPreseason84thAlabama L 10-48Alabama L 10-48L 10-48Alabama84thApp State L 24-27App State L 24-27L 24-27App State83rdOld Dominion W 20-17Old Dominion W 20-17W 20-17Old Dominion84thNorth Carolina Central W 42-9North Carolina Central W 42-9W 42-9North Carolin…85thRice W 28-12Rice W 28-12W 28-12Rice84thUAB L 17-30UAB L 17-30L 17-30UAB85thMemphis L 34-41Memphis L 34-41L 34-41Memphis85thTemple W 17-9Temple W 17-9W 17-9Temple86th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 17-9 vs. Temple3 headlines · 70th of 138Everything Blake Harrell said after ECU’s win over Temple 247Sports
  2. Oct 19–25L 34-41 at Memphis2 headlines · 73rd of 138
  3. Oct 12–18L 17-30 at UAB3 headlines · 64th of 138What Blake Harrell said after ECU’s loss at UAB 247Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 28-12 vs. Rice2 headlines · 70th of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game1 headline · 82nd of 138Everything Blake Harrell said during ECU’s open date press conference 247Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 42-9 vs. North Carolina Central1 headline · 83rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from East Carolina’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

5%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool59th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 73rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended · he took over during the 2024 season (6 games); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    $2.2M buyout · 1.7× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscored by 1
  • ▼ Cooler
    14-5 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,245,833 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 1.7× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 1%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

12%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobNoticed15th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 47 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $1.3 million in 2025, the 35th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
  • ▲ Higher
    14-5 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.