Blake Anderson

Head coach · Southern Miss
2nd season · since 2025 · Utah State before

At school3-6since 2025 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatWarm12% · 32nd of 132 jobsLast gameW 35-21at UL Monroe · Oct 31Nextvs James MadisonThu Nov 5 · 8 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, won 2 straight, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianArkansas StateUtah StateSouthern MissUL MonroeUL MonroeBYUBYUPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelArkansas State when he took over: 19.3 (Regional Program II), its final 2013 readingtook overArkansas State, 2014: 7-6, Regional Program IIArkansas State, 2014: 7-6, Regional Program II20147-6Arkansas State, 2015: 9-4, Regional Program II20159-4Arkansas State, 2016: 8-5, Regional Program I20168-5Arkansas State, 2017: 7-5, Regional Program I20177-5Arkansas State, 2018: 8-5, Regional Program I20188-5Arkansas State, 2019: 8-5, Regional Program I20198-5Arkansas State, 2020: 4-7, Regional Program IIArkansas State, 2020: 4-7, Regional Program II20204-7+5.8Utah State when he took over: 18.4 (Regional Program II), its final 2020 readingtook overUtah State, 2021: 11-3, Regional Program IUtah State, 2021: 11-3, Regional Program I202111-3Utah State, 2022: 6-7, Regional Program II20226-7Utah State, 2023: 6-7, Regional Program IIIUtah State, 2023: 6-7, Regional Program III20236-7-2.0Southern Miss when he took over: 9.6 (Regional Program IV), its final 2024 readingtook overSouthern Miss, 2025: 0-1, Regional Program VSouthern Miss, 2025: 0-1, Regional Program V20250-1Southern Miss, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program VSouthern Miss, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program V20263-5+0.1best: 2018gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 3-7

Arkansas State’14L’15L’16W’17L’18L’19WUtah State’21W’22L’23LSouthern Miss’25L

Show all 10 games
Arkansas State2014GoDaddy BowlL 44-632015New Orleans BowlL 28-472016Cure BowlW 31-132017Camellia BowlL 30-352018Arizona BowlL 13-162019Camellia BowlW 34-26Utah State2021LA BowlW 24-132022First Responder BowlL 10-382023Famous Idaho Potato BowlL 22-45Southern Miss2025New Orleans BowlL 16-27

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 35-21 at UL Monroe Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5 won 2 straight
  • Hot seat12% 32nd of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextvs. James Madison Thu Nov 5
  • Stature121st of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 9%. Lose and he’s at 13%.

vs. James Madison, Thu Nov 5, 8 pm ET ESPN2 · James Madison is 7-2 · Anderson vs. Billy Napier: 0-3 · Southern Miss’s chance to win: 18% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Southern Miss wins: 9%, 39th of 132Now: 12%If Southern Miss loses: 13%, 31st of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Southern Miss wins: 9%, 39th of 132
  • Now: 12%
  • If Southern Miss loses: 13%, 31st of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

12% chance he’s out after the season · 32nd of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow18% had they lostLoss 13%Win 9%6%3%5%11%13%17%22%16%12%Pre1W vs. Alcorn StateW2L at AuburnL3L vs. UConnL4L at TulaneL5L at TroyL6L vs. Arkansas StateL7W vs. LouisianaW8W at UL MonroeW9Chance to win vs. James Madison18%10Chance to win at Louisiana Tech13%11Chance to win vs. South Alabama43%12Chance to win at Old Dominion64%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow18% had they lost18% had they lostLoss 13%Win 9%6%12%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-917%
  2. 4-812%
  3. 5-78%
  4. 6-65%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 40th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 13%, 39th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 18%, 25th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 22%, 19th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 16%, 29th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 12%, 32nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 7▲ 0-1 over his previous season here

Hottest: 2026, week 7 (22%, 19th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 0-1 over his previous season here

He took over during the 2025 season (1 game); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    0-1 over his previous season here
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 33

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

A few headlines named him in the last 7 days

78th of 138 FBS head coaches

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 123rd of 138 per play. Defense: 105th.

Offense, per play123rdPassing offense122ndDefense, per play105thRun defense111thWorstBest
Offense, per play123rd of 138Passing offense122nd of 138Defense, per play105th of 138Run defense111th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Southern Miss. The other two rows are where Southern Miss stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Thu Nov 5vs. James Madison (7-2)ESPN218%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Louisiana Tech (6-2)ESPN+13%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. South Alabama (4-4)43%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Old Dominion (2-7)64%

Percent: Southern Miss’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Southern Miss stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

116th122nd128thPreseason122ndAlcorn State W 49-3Alcorn State W 49-3W 49-3Alcorn State121stAuburn L 8-43Auburn L 8-43L 8-43Auburn121stUConn L 20-48UConn L 20-48L 20-48UConn122ndTulane L 21-24Tulane L 21-24L 21-24Tulane121stTroy L 34-55Troy L 34-55L 34-55Troy120thArkansas State L 13-23Arkansas State L 13-23L 13-23Arkansas State121stLouisiana W 35-31Louisiana W 35-31W 35-31Louisiana123rdUL Monroe W 35-21UL Monroe W 35-21W 35-21UL Monroe122nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 35-21 at UL Monroe2 headlines · 77th of 138Southern Miss football coach Blake Anderson reacts to win over UL Monroe Hattiesburg American
  2. Oct 19–25W 35-31 vs. Louisiana1 headline · 81st of 138Southern Miss coach Blake Anderson's opening statement after 35-31 win over Louisiana Hattiesburg American
  3. Oct 12–18L 13-23 vs. Arkansas State4 headlines · 55th of 138Southern Miss coach Blake Anderson speaks to media after loss to Arkansas State Hattiesburg American
  4. Oct 5–11L 34-55 at Troy2 headlines · 70th of 138Southern Miss football coach Blake Anderson discusses 55-34 loss to Troy Hattiesburg American
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game3 headlines · 70th of 138'We Can Play With Anybody': Blake Anderson Sees Growth in Southern Miss Ahead of Sun Belt Play Sports Illustrated
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 21-24 at Tulane3 headlines · 68th of 138Southern Miss head coach Blake Anderson speaks after loss to Tulane (Video) Sun Herald

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Southern Miss’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.