Arkansas State: a football coaching history
See Arkansas State’s full 91-year Zeitgeist History →← all coaches
Stature and coaches, 1974–2026
The program’s standing over time, with every coach’s tenure beneath it — read down to see who was there for each rise and fall.
DynastyBlue BloodPower ProgramNational ProgramRegional Program
Run↔pass identity, by season
Every coach
Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.
2021–now
Butch Jones Steady
Butch Jones slid the Red Wolves from Regional Program II to Regional Program IV in 6 seasons.
2024 defense ranked in the 2th percentile nationally — historically bad
−7.7 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 12% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Bo Pelini’s Nebraska run (2003 (1 game), 2008–2014)
4th-best Arkansas State tenure of 7 by the numbers.
Followed Blake Anderson (2014–2020).
System Shift, on arrival
| Season | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||
| Record | 2-10 | 3-9 | 6-7 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 4-4 | |
| Postseason | — | — | L bowl | W bowl | W bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #105 | #67 | #74 | #78 | #75 | #85 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||||
| Pass rate | 60.1 | 51.0 | 44.6 | 47.7 | 53.1 | 46.8 | |
| Coordinators | |||||||
| OC | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | Garrett Altman | |
| DC | Rob Harley | Rob Harley | Rob Harley | Rob Harley | Griff McCarley | Griff McCarley | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||
| Offense | 8 | 12 | 49 | 52 | 21 | 71 | |
| Defense | 13 | 25 | 34 | 2 | 36 | 23 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 54.3 | 41.5 | 40.4 | 44.5 | 47.7 | 44.4 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 64.3 | 53.8 | 29.6 | 42.3 | 46.2 | 34.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 26.2 | 37.0 | 32.4 | 36.2 | 42.3 | 35.7 | |
Recruiter or developer?
Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
-17.1 pts
#169 of 208 · bottom quarter
Defense vs. talent
-24.3 pts
#186 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
110
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
134
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-24
#48 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 235 lbs
across 78 of 110 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+2.7 lbs
#175 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Jr
#115 of 255 · middle half
Top states: TX (15), FL (13), GA (10), MS (7), AL (6)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
55.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
55.4
position-weighted
Net
-0.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Timmy McClain (QB) from UCF
Biggest loss: Timmy McClain (QB) to Bethune-Cookman
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Keith Heckendorf → Garrett Altman · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.7% → 44.4% (-3.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 30% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Rob Harley → Griff McCarley · 2025The system held
2-season window either side.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
204 lbs
6′2″ avg · #632 of 767 · bottom quarter
Running back
201 lbs
5′10″ avg · #610 of 791 · bottom quarter
Wide receiver
187 lbs
5′11″ avg · #632 of 791 · bottom quarter
Tight end
239 lbs
6′4″ avg · #579 of 731 · bottom quarter
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
312 lbs
6′4″ avg · #262 of 779 · middle half
D-line
281 lbs
6′2″ avg · #438 of 753 · middle half
Edge
251 lbs
6′3″ avg · #110 of 188 · middle half
Linebacker
221 lbs
6′1″ avg · #684 of 772 · bottom quarter
Cornerback
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #383 of 771 · middle half
Safety
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #313 of 346 · bottom quarter
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Linebacker via the portal
62%
#38 of 225 stints
Buys Quarterback via the portal
63%
#40 of 206 stints
Postseason detail2023: Lost to Northern Illinois 19-21 Camellia Bowl2024: Beat Bowling Green 38-31 68 Ventures Bowl2025: Beat Missouri State 34-28 Xbox Bowl
AI Narratives — “Arkansas State — stat check”.
−7.7
30-41
2014–2020
Blake Anderson Steady
Blake Anderson moved Arkansas State from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 7 seasons.
2016 defense ranked in the 97th percentile nationally — elite
+5.8 pts over 7 seasons · top 31% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Skip Holtz’s Louisiana Tech run (2013–2021)
3rd-best Arkansas State tenure of 7 by the numbers.
Followed Bryan Harsin (2013) · succeeded by Butch Jones (2021–now).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
| Season | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||
| Record | 7-6 | 9-4 | 8-5 | 7-5 | 8-5 | 8-5 | 4-7 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | L bowl | W bowl | L bowl | L bowl | W bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #95 | #90 | #90 | #111 | #88 | #95 | #92 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||||
| Pass rate | 43.8 | 37.5 | 43.7 | 52.5 | 48.2 | 50.7 | 54.7 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||||
| OC | Walt Bell / Glen Elarbee | Walt Bell / Glen Elarbee | Buster Faulkner | Buster Faulkner | Buster Faulkner | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | |
| DC | Joe Cauthen | Joe Cauthen | Joe Cauthen | Joe Cauthen | Joe Cauthen | David Duggan | David Duggan | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||
| Offense | 55 | 68 | 33 | 47 | 69 | 70 | 80 | |
| Defense | 51 | 46 | 97 | 78 | 77 | 39 | 29 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 39.9 | 35.0 | 35.3 | 55.6 | 47.5 | 50.3 | 54.5 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 39.8 | 30.4 | 32.5 | 55.2 | 43.0 | 43.2 | 47.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 45.0 | 30.6 | 35.0 | 24.4 | 44.4 | 27.5 | 45.7 | |
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+16.0 pts
#49 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+15.2 pts
#47 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Walt Bell (co) / Glen Elarbee (co) → Buster Faulkner (co) · 2016The offense slipped
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 37.5% → 45.4% (+8.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 37% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Buster Faulkner (co) → Keith Heckendorf · 2019The offense improved
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 51.6% → 52.4% (+0.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 40% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Joe Cauthen → David Duggan · 2019The defense collapsed across the change
2-season window either side.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Toledo 44-63 Godaddy Bowl2015: Lost to Louisiana Tech 28-47 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2016: Beat UCF 31-13 Autonation Cure Bowl2017: Lost to Middle Tennessee 30-35 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl2018: Lost to Nevada 13-16 Bowl2019: Beat Florida International 34-26 Camellia Bowl
+5.8
51-37
2002–2010
Steve Roberts Steady
Steve Roberts moved Arkansas State from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 9 seasons.
No outlier style signal this stint
+4.8 pts over 9 seasons · top 35% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Doug Martin’s Kent State run (2004–2010)
5th-best Arkansas State tenure of 7 by the numbers.
Followed Joe Hollis (1997–2001) · succeeded by Hugh Freeze (2011).
System Shift, on departure
| Season | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||||
| Record | 6-7 | 5-7 | 3-8 | 6-6 | 6-6 | 5-7 | 6-6 | 4-8 | 4-8 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | L bowl | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | — | — | #82 | #105 | #106 | #108 | #105 | #111 | #94 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||||||
| Pass rate | — | — | 46.1 | 38.3 | 37.2 | 45.8 | 38.7 | 43.5 | 50.9 | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||||
| Offense | — | — | 76 | 45 | 25 | 34 | 64 | 20 | 64 | |
| Defense | — | — | 8 | 74 | 79 | 44 | 63 | 57 | 40 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | 49.5 | 41.4 | 24.0 | 45.8 | 38.2 | 42.7 | 47.3 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | 53.8 | 33.3 | 40.0 | 57.4 | 44.4 | 42.2 | 35.9 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | — | 9.1 | — | 29.6 | 29.7 | 31.7 | 26.7 | |
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Kicker from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2005: Lost to Southern Miss 19-31 Bowl
6 NFL Draft picks: Corey Williams (2004), Oren O'Neal (2007), Tyrell Johnson (2008), David Johnson (2009), Alex Carrington (2010), Derek Newton (2011)
+4.8
45-63
1997–2001
Joe Hollis Steady
Joe Hollis held the Red Wolves at Regional Program VI for 5 seasons.
−1.1 pts over 5 seasons · top 39% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Manny Diaz’s Miami run (2019–2021)
7th-best Arkansas State tenure of 7 by the numbers.
Followed John Bobo (1993–1996) · succeeded by Steve Roberts (2002–2010).
−1.1
13-43
1993–1996
John Bobo Steady
John Bobo slid the Red Wolves from Regional Program V to Regional Program VI in 4 seasons.
−2.9 pts over 4 seasons · top 50% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Dana Dimel’s Wyoming run (1997–1999)
6th-best Arkansas State tenure of 7 by the numbers.
Followed Ray Perkins (1992) · succeeded by Joe Hollis (1997–2001).
−2.9
13-30-1
1979–1981
Larry Lacewell Steady
Larry Lacewell slid the Red Wolves from National Program III to Regional Program II in 3 seasons.
−8.7 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 18% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Mark Duffner’s Maryland run (1992–1996)
2nd-best Arkansas State tenure of 7 by the numbers.
Followed Bill Davidson (1974–1978) · succeeded by Al Kincaid (1990–1991).
1 NFL Draft pick: Gene Bradley (1980)
−8.7
12-21
1974–1978
Bill Davidson Steady
Bill Davidson held Arkansas State at National Program II for 5 seasons.
1st-best Arkansas State tenure of 7 by the numbers.
Succeeded by Larry Lacewell (1979–1981).
6 NFL Draft picks: Stan Winfrey (1975), Steve Burks (1975), Ken Jones (1976), Dick Dixon (1976), Jerry Muckensturm (1976), Leroy Harris (1977)
National Program II
37-17