The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Hugh Freeze

Followed Bryan Harsin. Hugh Freeze held Auburn at Power Program II for 3 seasons.

The builder
98–62
2011–now · 4 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 5th career season — faster than 30% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #251 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Ole Miss, 5 seasons
+11.3
National Program II → Power Program III.
Liberty, 4 seasons
+7.4
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III.
Auburn, 3 seasons (active)
−3.3
Power Program II → Power Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Ole Miss2012–2016▲ 6.0ptLiberty2019–2022▼ 6.4ptAuburn2023–2025▲ 6.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Ole Miss6.0pt#213 of 258 · less than most
Liberty12.1pt#91 of 258 · a typical amount
Auburn9.7pt#137 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

9–9 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Bret Bielema.

Rivalry record
9–9
50.0% · 7 rivals
One-score games
19–21
47.5% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
2–4
33.3%
Buyout owed
$15,437,500 (est.)
bigger than 67% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
LSU2–250%
Memphis2–167%
Georgia0–20%
Alabama0–20%
Old Dominion1–0100%
UL Monroe1–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Bret Bielema1–3
4 meetings, 2013–2016
’13 W’14 L’15 L · blew a 7-pt lead’16 L · blew a 3-pt lead
25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
2–4 33.3%
Blue Blood
3–9 25.0%
Power Program
13–16 44.8%
National Program
10–10 50.0%
Regional Program
40–10 80.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.39
#41 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.24
#49 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2023–now
Auburncaretaker
Power Program II → Power Program II
Hugh Freeze held Auburn at Power Program II for 3 seasons.

10th-best Auburn tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-11.5 pts
#155 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+16.8 pts
#44 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Bryan Harsin (2021–2022).

Season202320242025Trend
Record & result
Record6–75–71–2
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#18#10#8
Style — pass rate
Pass rate38.247.944.4
Coordinators
OCPhilip MontgomeryDerrick NixDerrick Nix
DCRon RobertsCharles Kelly / D. J. DurkinD. J. Durkin
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense366356
Defense698286
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%35.947.543.7
Red-zone pass%34.844.037.3
4th-down go%opp. territory32.325.938.6
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
57
3.3★ avg rating
Portal departures
71
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-14
#45 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Eric Singleton Jr. On3 modeled · $1,000,000Ashton Daniels On3 modeled · $1,000,000Xavier Atkins On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 246 lbs
across 44 of 57 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.7 lbs
#19 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#26 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (6), GA (5), FL (4), TN (3), LA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
61.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
59.1
position-weighted
Net
+2.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jackson Arnold (QB) from Oklahoma
Biggest loss: Walker White (QB) to Baylor
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Philip Montgomery → Derrick Nix · 2024
36th pct63rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 35.9% → 47.5% (+11.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 71% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Ron Roberts → co-Charles Kelly / D. J. Durkin · 2024
69th pct82nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
212 lbs
6′2″ avg · #402 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
208 lbs
5′10″ avg · #356 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
190 lbs
6′1″ avg · #508 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
254 lbs
6′5″ avg · #92 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
319 lbs
6′5″ avg · #61 of 779 · more than most
D-line
301 lbs
6′3″ avg · #80 of 753 · more than most
Edge
263 lbs
6′3″ avg · #27 of 188 · more than most
Linebacker
234 lbs
6′2″ avg · #147 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #459 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #192 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys ATH via the portal
33%
#8 of 146 stints
Buys Tackle via the portal
67%
#21 of 223 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
78%
#172 of 224 stints
Grows Cornerback from high school
75%
#200 of 236 stints
Postseason detail2023: Lost to Maryland 13–31 TransPerfect Music City Bowl

18 NFL Draft picks: Derick Hall (2023), Tank Bigsby (2023), Colby Wooden (2023), Owen Pappoe (2023), Anders Carlson (2023), Nehemiah Pritchett (2024), Jaylin Simpson (2024), D.J. James (2024) + 10 more

15–19
2019–2022
Libertycaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III
Hugh Freeze moved Liberty from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 4 seasons.

2nd-best Liberty tenure of 4 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+40.4 pts
#6 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+28.8 pts
#11 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Turner Gill (2018–2018) · succeeded by Jamey Chadwell (2023–2026).

Season2019202020212022Trend
Record & result
Record8–510–18–58–4
PostseasonW bowlW bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#130#95#110#97
Style — pass rate
Pass rate51.038.842.944.5
Coordinators
OCKent Austin / Maurice HarrisKent Austin / Maurice HarrisKent Austin / Maurice HarrisKent Austin / Maurice Harris
DCScott SymonsScott SymonsJosh Aldridge / Scott Symons / Jack CurtisJosh Aldridge / Jack Curtis
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense83936039
Defense43516874
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%49.439.945.745.1
Red-zone pass%49.034.629.824.0
4th-down go%opp. territory16.032.452.929.8
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
19
2.8★ avg rating
Portal departures
19
left via the portal
Net portal flow
0
#131 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 236 lbs
across 16 of 19 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-0.5 lbs
#238 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (4), CA (2), NC (1), LA (1), KS (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
44.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
37.4
position-weighted
Net
+6.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Kaidon Salter (QB) from Tennessee
Biggest loss: Emanuel Dabney (CB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Scott Symons → co-Josh Aldridge / Scott Symons / co-Jack Curtis · 2021
51st pct68th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
216 lbs
6′1″ avg · #304 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
190 lbs
5′9″ avg · #781 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #576 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
248 lbs
6′3″ avg · #268 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
312 lbs
6′4″ avg · #243 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
283 lbs
6′3″ avg · #417 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
222 lbs
6′1″ avg · #659 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
183 lbs
6′0″ avg · #690 of 771 · less than most
Safety
194 lbs
5′11″ avg · #236 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints
Grows Safety from high school
75%
#165 of 218 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
83%
#180 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2019: Beat Georgia Southern 23–16 Fbc Mortgage Cure Bowl2020: Beat Coastal Carolina 37–34 FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl2021: Beat Eastern Michigan 56–20 LendingTree Bowl2022: Lost to Toledo 19–21 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Antonio Gandy-Golden (2020), Malik Willis (2022), Demario Douglas (2023)

34–15
2012–2016
Ole Misscaretakerborderline
National Program II → Power Program III
Hugh Freeze moved Ole Miss from National Program II to Power Program III in 5 seasons.

6th-best Ole Miss tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+7.0 pts
#75 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-12.5 pts
#156 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Houston Nutt (2008–2011) · succeeded by Matt Luke (2017–2019).

Season20122013201420152016Trend
Record & result
Record7–68–59–410–35–7
PostseasonL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#15#17#5
Style — pass rate
Pass rate47.351.453.4
Coordinators
OCMatt Luke / Dan WernerMatt Luke / Dan WernerMatt Luke / Dan Werner
DCDave Wommack / Jason JonesDave Wommack / Jason JonesDave Wommack / Jason Jones
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense279346
Defense968612
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%41.350.948.5
Red-zone pass%50.740.044.3
4th-down go%opp. territory26.723.723.1
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to TCU 3–42 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl2015: Beat Oklahoma State 48–20 Allstate Sugar Bowl

12 NFL Draft picks: Bobby Massie (2012), Donte Moncrief (2014), Senquez Golson (2015), Laremy Tunsil (2016), Laquon Treadwell (2016), Robert Nkemdiche (2016), Fahn Cooper (2016), Cody Core (2016) + 4 more

39–25
2011–2011
Arkansas Statecaretaker
Regional Program V → Regional Program IV
Hugh Freeze moved Arkansas State from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 1 season.

8th-best Arkansas State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Roberts (2002–2010) · succeeded by Gus Malzahn (2012–2012).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Cornerback from high school
100%
#225 of 236 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Derek Newton (2011), Demario Davis (2012)

10–3