The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Kirby Smart

Followed Mark Richt. Kirby Smart took Georgia from Power Program I to Dynasty — 2 Dynasty seasons.

117–21
2016–now · 1 stint
Georgia
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In his own words

taking the extra mile to do the extra things, the little things after practice. I’ve seen that from him. He’s been doing that consistently. So he knows that his time is very limited, just like the rest of us. So he’s been taking that role very seriously.
FOX Sports · · 5 days before Georgia's 2026 opener
Leadership in that room, I think he takes personal ownership and energy
FOX Sports5 days before the opener
Pass (protection) and pass receiving becoming a weapon
FOX Sports5 days before the opener
You’ve got two coaches’ sons that are thick-skinned and grew up around the game that aren’t worried about that
Saturday Down South
The Dante Dowdell situation is tough
FOX Sports
I’ve had questions about expansion, more SEC games, portal, college and federal legislation to navigate the NIL era we’re in. Players leaving, coaches leaving. That’s all people want to talk about
FOX Sports
They said, ‘OK, who’s going to be in the front of the boat?'
FOX Sports
So I would love to see — and I don’t make this an excuse — but I would love to see the flow of the season go like a football, a week to week, maybe a bye week in there, but a continuous thing
Saturday Down South
We have not had our best performances when we needed them most, and I don’t want it blame it on that
Saturday Down South
Alabama and Auburn are great programs and have a ton of respect. I’ve been apart of those games a ton–as coach at Georgia I think I’ve played them over half the years I’ve been here by way of SEC Championships too
Saturday Down South
We study successful programs all the time. If you’re not studying how other people are doing it and you’re just fixated on your own team and your own roster, I think you’re missing out
Saturday Down South
We’re praying for him and his family
Saturday Down South
I’ve been a huge advocate that if we can’t find rules that everybody plays by, then we should play our own
Saturday Down South
I’m not advocating that they make less money. I’m fine with what student-athletes make
Saturday Down South
My biggest concern for our sport is we’re going to ruin all the other sports
Saturday Down South
Our best Alabama teams — I’m gonna go 2012, 13, 14, 15 — would beat the dog out of all these teams right now
Saturday Down South
There’s an Indiana, there’s a Michigan, but relative, [roster talent] is going down
Saturday Down South
I love the game. I’m an enthusiast. I love the game
Saturday Down South
I don’t know how long he’s out. You never know how long it is with the ACL
Saturday Down South
Precautionary. He had an ankle injury in the last game
Saturday Down South
Do your homework. You know, like, do a little more homework
Saturday Down South
You know, I don’t really know Steve Smith personally
Saturday Down South
I will never apologize for winning an SEC title
Saturday Down South
Where we are right now with 12 teams, I don’t necessarily agree that it needs to quit being played
Saturday Down South
Yep, he’s great. He’s practicing. He had a little off-season injury in our workouts, but he’s fine now
Saturday Down South
All doing a great job
Saturday Down South
We really worked hard on retention with our team to retain the guys we have. We think that’s what provides a winning culture
Saturday Down South
Ellis, what’s going on? Did somebody say something to you? What are you upset about?'
Saturday Down South
You’re the fourth coach I’ve played since being at Georgia, so she’s getting a lot of money from sold houses
Saturday Down South
I have tremendous respect for this town. I had no idea how great a basketball town this really was
Saturday Down South
We are excited to add a coach and a man of Coach Knight’s caliber to the staff
Saturday Down South
We’re grateful for everything Coach Searels has poured into our program over the past several seasons
Saturday Down South
Phil has been a tremendous asset to our staff and players
Saturday Down South

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerGEORGIADynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderGeorgia, 2016: 8-5, Power Program I2016Georgia, 2017: 13-2, Power Program I2017Georgia, 2018: 11-3, Power Program I2018Georgia, 2019: 12-2, Power Program I2019Georgia, 2020: 8-2, Power Program I2020Georgia, 2021: 14-1, Blue Blood2021Georgia, 2022: 15-0, Dynasty2022Georgia, 2023: 13-1, Dynasty2023Georgia, 2024: 11-3, Blue Blood2024Georgia, 2025: 12-2, Blue Blood2025Georgia, 2026: in progress, Blue Blood2026+20.5One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Dynasty in his 7th career season — faster than 47% of the 15 FBS coaches who have ever reached Dynasty (rank #7 of 15 by seasons-to-arrival).

Georgia, 11 seasons (active)
+20.5
Power Program I → Blue Blood.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%Georgia2016–2026▲ 6.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Georgia23.5pt#2 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

25–5 against his rivals. Just 1–5 against Nick Saban.

Rivalry record
25–5
83.3% · 4 rivals
One-score games
22–10
68.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–4
20.0%
Buyout owed
$105,107,583
bigger than 99% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Auburn7–188%
Georgia Tech7–188%
South Carolina6–186%
Florida5–271%
The toughest matchup
vs. Nick Saban1–5
6 meetings, 2017–2023
’17 L · blew a 13-pt lead’18 L · blew a 14-pt lead’20 L · blew a 7-pt lead’21 L · blew a 10-pt lead’21 W · erased a 6-pt deficit’23 L · blew a 7-pt lead
17% win rate across a real, 6-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
1–4 20.0%
Blue Blood
6–6 50.0%
Power Program
39–9 81.2%
National Program
32–0 100.0%
Regional Program
18–1 94.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.64
#12 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.50
#15 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

coaching decisionEarly signal — few voices

fans believe Kirby Smart is using more aggressive play-calling

Considering this is the second time this season and more importantly the second time ever Kirby has covered a >40 point spread. It’s quite out of character for this program.

If I’m not mistaken, this is the FIRST time this has happened in Kirby’s tenure as head coach. He just couldn’t hold our boys back.

Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Sep 5, 2026–Sep 12, 2026 · via CFB, georgiabulldogs

Show all 2
program directionOne fan's take

One fan believes Kirby Smart is a uniquely elite coach

COACH KIRBY SMART, another generational talent, IMO top ten CFB coaches ever

Based on 2 comments from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 23, 2026 · via georgiabulldogs

Coaching career

2016–now
Georgiatransformerborderline🏆 coach of the year
Power Program I → Dynasty
Kirby Smart took Georgia from Power Program I to Dynasty — 2 Dynasty seasons.

1st-best Georgia tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+8.6 pts
#68 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+11.9 pts
#63 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mark Richt (2001–2015).

Season20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record8–513–211–312–28–214–115–013–111–312–20–0
PostseasonW CFPTitle game LL bowlW bowlW bowlCHAMPIONCHAMPIONW bowlL bowlL bowl—
Recruiting rank#6#3#1#2#1#3#3#2#1#2#6
Style — pass rate
Pass rate42.031.338.644.144.842.846.947.654.842.048.3
Coordinators
OCJames Coley / Jim ChaneyJames Coley / Jim ChaneyJames Coley / Jim ChaneyJames ColeyTodd MonkenTodd MonkenTodd MonkenMike BoboMike BoboMike BoboMike Bobo
DCMel TuckerMel TuckerMel TuckerDan Lanning / Glenn SchumannDan Lanning / Glenn SchumannDan Lanning / Glenn SchumannGlenn Schumann / Will MuschampGlenn Schumann / Will MuschampGlenn Schumann / Travaris RobinsonGlenn Schumann / Travaris RobinsonGlenn Schumann / Travaris Robinson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense43979757869310098688398
Defense6683759976999590748370
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%30.925.835.541.044.042.943.946.050.540.660.7
Red-zone pass%38.432.834.149.144.435.638.236.247.226.450.0
4th-down go%opp. territory18.29.421.915.225.915.623.720.536.828.1—
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
38
3.5★ avg rating
Portal departures
104
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-66
#157 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 216 lbs
across 28 of 38 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+7.5 lbs
#48 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#198 of 255 · less than most
Top states: GA (8), NV (3), SC (2), CA (2), TX (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
64.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
69.5
position-weighted
Net
-4.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jaden Rashada (QB) from Arizona State
Biggest loss: Carson Beck (QB) to Miami
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-James Coley / Jim Chaney → James Coley · 2019
97th pct57th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 35.5% → 41.0% (+5.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 53% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: James Coley → Todd Monken · 2020
57th pct86th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.0% → 44.0% (+2.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 36% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Todd Monken → Mike Bobo · 2023the system held
96th pct83rd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 43.4% → 48.3% (+4.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 43% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Mel Tucker → co-Dan Lanning / co-Glenn Schumann · 2019the system held
79th pct87th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: co-Dan Lanning / co-Glenn Schumann → co-Glenn Schumann / co-Will Muschamp · 2022the system held
87th pct92nd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: co-Glenn Schumann / co-Will Muschamp → Glenn Schumann / co-Travaris Robinson · 2024the system held
92nd pct78th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
211 lbs
6′1″ avg · #445 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
210 lbs
5′11″ avg · #284 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′1″ avg · #235 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
246 lbs
6′5″ avg · #311 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
318 lbs
6′5″ avg · #71 of 779 · more than most
D-line
305 lbs
6′4″ avg · #43 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
236 lbs
6′2″ avg · #90 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
194 lbs
6′1″ avg · #157 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
100%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
83%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2016: Beat TCU 31–23 CFP2017: Beat Oklahoma 54–48 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Northwestern Mutual - Cfp Semifinal2017: Lost to Alabama 23–26 Cfp National Championship Presented By At&T2018: Lost to Texas 21–28 Allstate Sugar Bowl2019: Beat Baylor 26–14 Allstate Sugar Bowl2020: Beat Cincinnati 24–21 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2021: Beat Michigan 34–11 CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl2021: Beat Alabama 33–18 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2022: Beat Ohio State 42–41 CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2022: Beat TCU 65–7 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2023: Beat Florida State 63–3 Capital One Orange Bowl2024: Lost to Notre Dame 10–23 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl - Rescheduled from Jan 12025: Lost to Ole Miss 34–39 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

89 NFL Draft picks: Leonard Floyd (2016), Jordan Jenkins (2016), Malcolm Mitchell (2016), John Theus (2016), Keith Marshall (2016), Isaiah McKenzie (2017), Roquan Smith (2018), Isaiah Wynn (2018) + 81 more

Coach of the Year: SEC Coach of the Year (2022)

23 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Eric Stokes (2020), Nakobe Dean (2021), Lewis Cine (2021), Jordan Davis (2021), Brock Bowers (2021), Jamon Dumas-Johnson (2022), Jalen Carter (2022), Brock Bowers (2022) + 15 more

AI Narratives — “Georgia's Offseason Roster Shifts” and 15 more on the team page.

117–21

Defining games during this era

2018 NCG · Alabama 26, Georgia 23 (OT)2022 NCG · Georgia 65, TCU 72018 Rose Bowl semifinal · Georgia 54, Oklahoma 48 (2OT)2021 Cocktail Party · Georgia 34, Florida 72018 SEC Championship · Alabama 35, Georgia 282025 SEC Championship · Georgia 28, Alabama 72017 Iron Bowl rematch (SEC title) · Georgia 28, Auburn 7