The Zeitgeist List · coaching

David Bailiff

Followed Todd Graham. David Bailiff moved Rice from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 11 seasons.

57–80
2007–2017 · 1 stint
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Rice, 11 seasons
+7.0
Regional Program V → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%Rice2007–2017▼ 4.5pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Rice12.4pt#82 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–9 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Art Briles.

Rivalry record
5–9
35.7% · 2 rivals
One-score games
21–17
55.3% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–4
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Houston2–625%
SMU3–350%
The toughest matchup
vs. Art Briles0–4
4 meetings, 2007–2015
’07 L’10 L’11 L’15 L · blew a 3-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–4 0.0%
Power Program
0–10 0.0%
National Program
6–16 27.3%
Regional Program
45–49 47.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.16
#219 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.50
#320 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2007–2017
Ricecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III
David Bailiff moved Rice from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 11 seasons.

8th-best Rice tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-13.8 pts
#161 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-38.6 pts
#202 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Todd Graham (2006–2006) · succeeded by Mike Bloomgren (2018–2024).

Season20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record3–910–32–104–84–87–610–48–55–73–91–11
PostseasonW bowl
Recruiting rank#91#101#127#122
Style — pass rate
Pass rate38.141.246.033.6
Coordinators
OCBilly Lynch / Larry EdmondsonBilly Lynch / Larry EdmondsonBilly Lynch / Larry EdmondsonBilly Lynch
DCChris ThurmondChris ThurmondChris ThurmondBrian Stewart
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense64392720
Defense47266
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%28.432.644.426.5
Red-zone pass%25.037.831.522.0
4th-down go%opp. territory23.725.031.048.0
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Billy Lynch / Larry Edmondson → Billy Lynch · 2017
27th pct20th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 44.4% → 26.5% (-17.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 38% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Chris Thurmond → Brian Stewart · 2017
6th pct6th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Fresno State 30–6 Hawai'i Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Jarett Dillard (2009), James Casey (2009), Cheta Ozougwu (2011), Scott Solomon (2012), Vance McDonald (2013), Luke Willson (2013), Phillip Gaines (2014), Christian Covington (2015)

57–80