James Madison at Southern Miss
James Madison (7‑2) travels to Southern Miss (3‑5), with James Madison favored by 14.5. Southern Miss’s offense is at the 17th percentile on efficiency; James Madison’s defense is at the 87th.
How they got here
Last three games
James Madison · 7-2
Rated 85th in our preseason ratings, 47th now, up 38 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Southern Miss · 3-5
Rated 57th in our preseason ratings, 122nd now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Louisiana as an 11.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Southern Miss’s EPA/play against James Madison, 70 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Southern Miss’s EPA/play against James Madison’s defense
Southern Miss offense, 17th percentile · James Madison defense, 87th
Southern Miss’s passing EPA against James Madison’s defense
Southern Miss offense, 16th percentile · James Madison defense, 76th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
James Madison leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2024 · James Madison won the last meeting
- 2024James Madison 32-15
Each line is Southern Miss’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
James Madison
The chip · vs the committeeThe grievance is the rulebook: the same sport that kept JMU out of bowls on transition technicalities, then made the Dukes climb into the Playoff anyway. Fans remember exactly who told them to wait their turn — and they took the turn themselves.
What this game touches
The bowl bans during the FBS climb. JMU went 19-4 in its first two FBS seasons and was barred from bowl games both years by transition rules — kept out of the postseason despite outplaying the teams that got in. By the time the gate finally opened, the program had a grievance ready-made.
Southern Miss
The chip · vs the national mediaEagle fans are tired of being filed under forgotten — the program that developed an NFL Hall of Famer and won for two straight decades, now treated like it never mattered. They'll tell you Southern Miss has more pedigree than the leagues that look past it.
What this game touches
The fall — and a coaching door that won't stop spinning. The 21-year winning streak ended in 2011, and the program bottomed at 1-11 in 2024 under two coaches in one season. Charles Huff arrived and went 7-6 in 2025, dragging Southern Miss back to a bowl — then left for Memphis after a single year, with Blake Anderson promoted to keep the rebuild from resetting again.
Best players
James Madison
- Nakian Jackson (LB) · 65 tackles
- JT Hooten (LB) · 58 tackles
- George Pettaway (RB) · 824 rushing yards
Southern Miss
- Mathis Haygood (LB) · 70 tackles
- Mike Steven Robinson III (DB) · 69 tackles
- Landon Sylvie (DB) · 55 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. James Madison: George Pettaway (824 rushing yards).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (56.5 → 58.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
James Madison fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (68th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 46%
- Line · 12%
- Southern Miss fans · 74th
- James Madison fans · 68th
James Madison favored by 14.5 · Total 58.5
James Madison by 14.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
James Madison’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 275 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at M. M. Roberts Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 81
James Madison at Southern Miss · Thursday, Nov. 5 · 8 pm ET · M. M. Roberts Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at M. M. Roberts Stadium: noon Saturdays score 81, 3:30 pm 84, 7:30 pm 96.
- noon: 81, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 84, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Southern Miss is worth +3.3 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 33rd percentile.
36% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (16-28 home, 14-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.3 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 769 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Southern Miss
- Wk 4Lat Tulane21-24
- Wk 6Lat Troy34-55
- Wk 7Lvs Arkansas State13-23
- Wk 8Wvs Louisiana35-31
- Wk 9Wat UL Monroe35-21
James Madison
- Wk 5Wvs Marshall45-17
- Wk 6Wat Georgia Southern27-24
- Wk 7Wvs Georgia State49-22
- Wk 8Lat App State31-34
- Wk 9Lvs Troy21-24
Power rating by week
James Madison is rated 6.9 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Southern Miss.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +15.5 → +14.5 · Total: 56.5 → 58.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Southern Miss10th2-2
- James Madison2nd4-2