Tulane beats Southern Miss 24-21

Team pages: Southern Miss · Tulane

Southern Miss1-321
Tulane2-224Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, La. · Crowd 22,984ESPN+

Tulane beat Southern Miss 24-21.

We had Tulane favored. It won.

Next: Southern Miss lost to Troy 55-34, Tue Oct 6

Next: Tulane lost to Army 20-17, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Turner 74-yd TD run, Tulane goes ahead 24-21 (Q4, 5:26). Tulane went from 63% to 86% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tulane a 67% chance, and the closing betting line (Tulane was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.

A tight one: Tulane bottomed out at 39% and won.

Southern Miss never had better than a 61% chance.

Blocked field goalQ4 1:45
FinalTulane 24-21 Southern MissTulane wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfTulaneWon24-2112−20+23ScoresBlocked field goal
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfTulaneWon24-2112ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfTulaneLost21-2412+20−23ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfTulaneLost21-2412ScoresBlocked field goal

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:25InterceptionSemonza intercepted by Sylvie at the USM00Tulane 61% → 41% (−20)
  2. 2Q4 5:26Turner 74-yd TD run, Tulane goes ahead 24-21Tulane 63% → 86% (+23)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:25InterceptionSemonza intercepted by Sylvie at the USM00Southern Miss 39% → 59% (+20)
  2. 2Q4 5:26Turner 74-yd TD run, Tulane goes ahead 24-21Southern Miss 37% → 14% (−23)
Tulane’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Tulane -17.5), at 93% for Tulane (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Tulane’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 8:15Semonza 47-yd TD pass to Brown-StephensTulane goes ahead 7-0Q1, 8:15 · Tulane 7, Southern Miss 0▲4%Tulane’s chance to win, 92% to 96%▲4%Tulane’s chance to win, 92% to 96%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 12:43Lyddy 32-yd TD pass to Daltonties it 7-7Q2, 12:43 · Tulane 7, Southern Miss 7▼6%Tulane’s chance to win, 93% to 87%▼6%Tulane’s chance to win, 93% to 87%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 9:47Turner 43-yd TD runTulane goes ahead 14-7Q2, 9:47 · Tulane 14, Southern Miss 7▲4%Tulane’s chance to win, 90% to 94%▲4%Tulane’s chance to win, 90% to 94%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 4:44Lyddy 14-yd TD pass to Sandersties it 14-14Q2, 4:44 · Tulane 14, Southern Miss 14▼6%Tulane’s chance to win, 91% to 85%▼6%Tulane’s chance to win, 91% to 85%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q3, 10:07Lyddy 22-yd TD pass to SandersSouthern Miss goes ahead 21-14Q3, 10:07 · Tulane 14, Southern Miss 21▼15%Tulane’s chance to win, 75% to 60%▼15%Tulane’s chance to win, 75% to 60%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q4, 14:25Semonza intercepted by Sylvie at the USM00Q4, 14:25 · Tulane 14, Southern Miss 21▼20%Tulane’s chance to win, 61% to 41%▼20%Tulane’s chance to win, 61% to 41%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 5:26Turner 74-yd TD runTulane goes ahead 24-21Q4, 5:26 · Tulane 24, Southern Miss 21▲23%Tulane’s chance to win, 63% to 86%▲23%Tulane’s chance to win, 63% to 86%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Tulane scored on 4 of its 15 drives; Southern Miss on 3 of its 14.

Tulane’s drives are teal, Southern Miss’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Southern Miss: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntTulane: Punt, from 57 yards out to 52PuntSouthern Miss: Punt, from 80 yards out to 82PuntTulane: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern Miss: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntTulane: Punt, from 66 yards out to 65PuntSouthern Miss: Punt, from 80 yards out to 79PuntTulane: Punt, from 86 yards out to 84PuntSouthern Miss: Punt, from 71 yards out to 36PuntTulane: Punt, from 88 yards out to 82PuntQ2Southern Miss: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownTulane: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern Miss: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTulane: Punt, from 82 yards out to 48PuntSouthern Miss: Punt, from 93 yards out to 88PuntTulane: Punt, from 71 yards out to 69PuntSouthern Miss: Punt, from 80 yards out to 77PuntTulane: End of half, from 57 yards out to 61End of halfQ3Tulane: Punt, from 88 yards out to 85PuntSouthern Miss: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownTulane: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 27DownsSouthern Miss: Punt, from 73 yards out to 75PuntTulane: Interception, from 77 yards out to 9InterceptionQ4Southern Miss: Punt, from 80 yards out to 64PuntTulane: Field goal, from 74 yards out to 8Field goalSouthern Miss: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 26Missed FGTulane: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern Miss: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 3Missed FGTulane: End of game, from 80 yards out to 59End of game

From Southern Miss’s side

Southern Miss’s best moment: Semonza intercepted by Sylvie at the USM00 (Q4 14:25). It lifted Southern Miss’s win chance by 20 points.

What it cost

Southern Miss’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Southern Miss · lost1% → ▼0%
Tulane · won2% → 2%

Win the conference

Southern Miss · lost6% → 6%6%
Tulane · won7% → ▲8%7%▲ 8%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Tulane 24, Southern Miss 21

Southern Miss covered +17.5 by 14.5. The total, 45, stayed under 52.5.

Southern MissTulaneTotal yardsSouthern Miss 401Tulane 445401445Passing yardsSouthern Miss 270Tulane 164270164Rushing yardsSouthern Miss 131Tulane 281131281First downsSouthern Miss 19Tulane 201920TurnoversSouthern Miss 0Tulane 101Time of possessionSouthern Miss 29:18Tulane 30:4229:1830:42
Team totalsSouthern MissTulane
Total yards401445
Passing19 of 30, 270 yds14 of 29, 164 yds
Rushing34 for 131 yds48 for 281 yds
First downs1920
Third down3 of 145 of 15
Fourth down0 of 01 of 2
Turnovers01
Penalties8 for 90 yds6 for 60 yds
Time of possession29:1830:42

Southern Miss leaders

  • Passing Landy Lyddy 18 of 29, 243 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Steven Robinson 16 for 73 yds; Jamarice Wilder 10 for 60 yds
  • Receiving Davis Dalton 3 for 75 yds, 1 TD; A.J. Little 4 for 75 yds

Tulane leaders

  • Passing Kadin Semonza 12 of 24, 129 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Maurice Turner 12 for 200 yds, 2 TD; Johnnie Daniels 19 for 70 yds
  • Receiving Anthony Brown 5 for 85 yds, 1 TD; Dawson Johnson 2 for 31 yds

No rain through the game

83° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Yulman Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Tulane favoredSouthern Miss favored100%Win chanceTulaneRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Tulane favoredSouthern Miss favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 5:26 left9:13 p.m.
Southern Miss 21, Tulane 24 · Tulane 86% to win
no rain · 79°
Turner 74-yd TD run, Tulane goes ahead 24-21

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at New Orleans/lakefro airport, 8.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Southern Miss · 1-2

Rated 57th in our preseason ratings, 77th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 20-48 vs UConn #109 of 668

lost by 28 as a 3.5-point underdog

Southern Miss lost 20-48 vs UConn. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 49%.

L 8-43 @ Auburn #62 of 668

lost by 35 as a 32.5-point underdog

Southern Miss lost 8-43 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 49-3 vs Alcorn State #181 of 668

won by 46 as a 20.5-point favorite

Southern Miss won 49-3 vs Alcorn State. Chance to win started at 93%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Tulane · 1-2

Rated 75th in our preseason ratings, 74th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 20-31 @ Kansas State #26 of 668

lost by 11 as a 20.5-point underdog

Tulane lost 20-31 at Kansas State. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 24%.

W 28-24 vs South Alabama #64 of 668

won by 4 as a 9.5-point favorite

Tulane won 28-24 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 83%, low 34%, high better than 99%.

L 3-17 @ DukeTop 25 #65 of 668

lost by 14 as a 9.5-point underdog

Tulane lost 3-17 at Duke. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 24%.

Week by week

Tulane

Wk 1: L 3-17 at Duke▼14DukeWk 2: W 28-24 vs South Alabama▲4South AlabamaWk 3: L 20-31 at Kansas State▼11Kansas State
  • Wk 1Lat Duke3-17
  • Wk 2Wvs South Alabama28-24
  • Wk 3Lat Kansas State20-31

Southern Miss

Wk 1: W 49-3 vs Alcorn State▲46Alcorn StateWk 2: L 8-43 at Auburn▼35AuburnWk 3: L 20-48 vs UConn▼28UConn
  • Wk 1Wvs Alcorn State49-3
  • Wk 2Lat Auburn8-43
  • Wk 3Lvs UConn20-48

Power rating by week

Tulane is rated 0.2 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

31-1Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3TulaneSouthern Miss

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Tulane’s explosive plays against Southern Miss, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Tulane’s explosive plays against Southern Miss’s defense

    63 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Tulane offense, 100th percentile · Southern Miss defense, 37th

  2. Tulane’s rushing EPA against Southern Miss’s defense

    37 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Tulane offense, 45th percentile · Southern Miss defense, 8th

  3. Tulane’s success rate against Southern Miss’s defense

    26 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Tulane offense, 2nd percentile · Southern Miss defense, 28th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Southern MissTulane
EPA/play, offense
Southern Miss ·…Tulane · 29
EPA/play, defense
Southern Miss · 16Tulane · 36
Success rate, offense
Southern Miss · 38Tulane · 2
Success rate, defense
Southern Miss · 28Tulane · 35
Explosive-play rate, offense
Southern Miss · 39Tulane · 100
Explosive-play rate, defense
Southern Miss · 37Tulane · 57
Rush EPA, offense
Southern Miss · 38Tulane · 45
Rush EPA, defense
Southern Miss · 8Tulane · 36
Pass EPA, offense
Southern Miss · 26Tulane · 25
Pass EPA, defense
Southern Miss · 21Tulane · 48

The series

Southern Miss leads the series 24-10

34 meetings since 1979 · Tulane won the last meeting

Tulane wonSouthern Miss won1979: Tulane by 11980: Southern Miss by 31981: Southern Miss by 181982: Southern Miss by 121983: Tulane by 71984: Tulane by 281985: Southern Miss by 181986: Tulane by 151987: Southern Miss by 71988: Southern Miss by 251989: Southern Miss by 91990: Southern Miss by 61991: Southern Miss by 331992: Southern Miss by 101993: Tulane by 21994: Southern Miss by 151995: Southern Miss by 451996: Southern Miss by 31997: Southern Miss by 211998: Tulane by 141999: Southern Miss by 342000: Southern Miss by 322001: Southern Miss by 532002: Tulane by 212003: Southern Miss by 142004: Southern Miss by 182005: Southern Miss by 192006: Southern Miss by 282009: Southern Miss by 372010: Southern Miss by 162019: Tulane by 172020: Tulane by 422022: Southern Miss by 32023: Tulane by 1819792023
  • 2023Tulane 21-3Tulane won 21-3 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 75%, low 75%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022Southern Miss 27-24Tulane lost 24-27 vs Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 95%.
  • 2020Tulane 66-24Tulane won 66-24 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 63%, low 16%, high better than 99%.
  • 2019 · neutral siteTulane 30-13Tulane won 30-13 vs Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 64%, low 16%, high better than 99%.
  • 2010Southern Miss 46-30

Each line is Tulane’s chance to win through that meeting. Tulane is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Tulane fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (46th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

  • Model · 67%
  • Line · 92%
  • Tulane fans · 46th
  • Southern Miss fans · 54th

Tulane favored by 17.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Tulane by 17.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The total fell 1 point.

opened 53.5now 52.5

Total: 53.5 → 52.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Tulane is worth +6.1 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 82nd percentile.

70% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (35-15 home, 25-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.9 at home vs. away over 106 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 106 miles to get here.

Where next