Tulane at Kansas State
Tulane (1‑1) at Kansas State (2‑0) — Kansas State is favored by 20.5. The model gives Kansas State a 85% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Tulane · 1-1
Picked #75 in the preseason · now #71 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 28–24 vs South Alabama #64 of 669
won by 4 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 3–17 @ Duke #66 of 669
lost by 14 as a 9.5-point underdog
Last two games
Kansas State · 2-0
Picked #32 in the preseason · now #26 — about right.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 34–7 vs Washington State #42 of 669
won by 27 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 71–3 vs Nicholls #157 of 669
won by 68 as a 41-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 15, 2026
The series
Tulane leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 1988 · Kansas State won the last meeting
- 2024Kansas State 34–27
- 2022Tulane 17–10
- 1988Tulane 20–16
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Tulane
The chip · vs big brotherAcross town and up the road sits LSU, the SEC giant that swallowed all of Louisiana's football oxygen after Tulane walked away from the conference. Fans believe the state forgot the Green Wave existed — and that crashing the Playoff was the loudest possible way to remind everyone New Orleans has a team of its own.
What this game touches
Talent that keeps leaving as soon as it works. Tulane finally got good again — a 2022 Cotton Bowl run, an 11-3 2025, back-to-back AAC titles — but the success keeps walking out the door: Willie Fritz left for Houston, then Jon Sumrall left for Florida the moment he reached the Playoff, forcing Tulane to promote Will Hall and start the cycle again.
Kansas State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans have heard their program called a Snyder-only fluke for thirty years — that without one coach K-State reverts to the bottom. They believe the patience and the toughness are the program, not the man, and the 6-6 year just gave the doubters their opening again.
What this game touches
The 2025 stumble and Klieman's exit. K-State opened 2025 ranked No. 17, then went 6-6 and declined a bowl amid a coaching change, injuries and portal losses. Chris Klieman retired after the regular season — an unexpected handoff that left Manhattan steadying itself rather than contending, the program's first bowl-less year since 2020.
Best players
Tulane
- Dickson Agu (LB) · 23 tackles
- Kevin Adams (S) · 21 tackles
- Jack Tchienchou (S) · 17 tackles
Kansas State
- Rodney Fields Jr. (RB) · 206 rushing yards
- Joshua Manning (WR) · 130 receiving yards
- Avery Johnson (QB) · 391 passing yards — Heisman odds: 39th (+7500)
The line, and the room
Kansas State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (65th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 85%
- Market · 95%
- Kansas State fans · 65th
- Tulane fans · 68th
Home −20.5 · O/U 49.5
Conditions
95°F · 14 mph wind
Kansas State is worth +5.5 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 73rd percentile.
65% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (30–16 home, 18–22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.4 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±7.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 738 miles to get here.
Recent games
Kansas State
- Wk 1Wvs Nicholls71-3
- Wk 2Wvs Washington State34-7
Tulane
- Wk 1Lat Duke3-17
- Wk 2Wvs South Alabama28-24
Trajectory
The market
Spread: −19.5 → −20.5
Book hold: 5.0%