Tulane beats South Alabama 28-24

Team pages: South Alabama · Tulane

South Alabama1-124
Tulane1-128Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, La. · Crowd 24,323ESPN+

Tulane beat South Alabama 28-24.

We had Tulane favored. It won.

Next: South Alabama beat Ohio 41-36, Sat Sep 19

Next: Tulane lost to Kansas State 31-20, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Martin 16-yd TD run, South Alabama leads 10-0 (Q1, 1:31). Tulane went from 66% to 39% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tulane a 53% chance, and the closing betting line (Tulane was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Tulane came back from 10 down, at one point just a 34% chance in the fourth quarter.

South Alabama led by 10, was as high as 66% in the fourth quarter, and still lost.

80-yard TD runTulane · Q3 4:53
FinalTulane 28-24 South AlabamaTulane wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfTulaneLowest 34%Won28-24123−27+24+20Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfTulaneLowest 34%Won28-24123Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfTulaneHigh 66%Lost24-28123+27−23−20Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfTulaneHigh 66%Lost24-28123Scores

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:31Martin 16-yd TD run, South Alabama leads 10-0Tulane 66% → 39% (−27)
  2. 2Q2 14:57Daniels 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 10-7Tulane 45% → 69% (+24)
  3. 3Q3 4:53Lucas 80-yd TD run, Tulane goes ahead 21-17Tulane 60% → 80% (+20)

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:31Martin 16-yd TD run, South Alabama leads 10-0South Alabama 34% → 61% (+27)
  2. 2Q2 14:57Daniels 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 10-7South Alabama 55% → 32% (−23)
  3. 3Q3 4:53Lucas 80-yd TD run, Tulane goes ahead 21-17South Alabama 40% → 20% (−20)
Tulane’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Tulane -9.5), at 83% for Tulane (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Tulane’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 1:31Martin 16-yd TD runSouth Alabama leads 10-0Q1, 1:31 · Tulane 0, South Alabama 10▼27%Tulane’s chance to win, 66% to 39%▼27%Tulane’s chance to win, 66% to 39%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 14:57Daniels 2-yd TD runcuts it to 10-7Q2, 14:57 · Tulane 7, South Alabama 10▲23%Tulane’s chance to win, 45% to 68%▲23%Tulane’s chance to win, 45% to 68%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 1:55Daniels 3-yd TD runTulane goes ahead 14-10Q2, 1:55 · Tulane 14, South Alabama 10▲13%Tulane’s chance to win, 71% to 84%▲13%Tulane’s chance to win, 71% to 84%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q3, 12:17Davenport 43-yd TD pass to EagerSouth Alabama goes ahead 17-14Q3, 12:17 · Tulane 14, South Alabama 17▼17%Tulane’s chance to win, 79% to 62%▼17%Tulane’s chance to win, 79% to 62%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q4, 11:49Davenport 17-yd TD pass to JenkinsSouth Alabama goes ahead 24-21Q4, 11:49 · Tulane 21, South Alabama 24▼16%Tulane’s chance to win, 73% to 57%▼16%Tulane’s chance to win, 73% to 57%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q4, 1:17Semonza 14-yd TD pass to HillTulane goes ahead 28-24Q4, 1:17 · Tulane 28, South Alabama 24▲17%Tulane’s chance to win, 69% to 86%▲17%Tulane’s chance to win, 69% to 86%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Tulane scored on 4 of its 10 drives; South Alabama on 4 of its 10.

Tulane’s drives are teal, South Alabama’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Tulane: Punt, from 75 yards out to 41PuntSouth Alabama: Field goal, from 85 yards out to 22Field goalTulane: Missed field goal, from 84 yards out to 27Missed FGSouth Alabama: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownTulane: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2South Alabama: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 35DownsTulane: Punt, from 65 yards out to 46PuntSouth Alabama: Punt, from 80 yards out to 50PuntTulane: Touchdown, from 95 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: End of half, from 75 yards out to 62End of halfQ3South Alabama: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownTulane: Punt, from 75 yards out to 83PuntSouth Alabama: Missed field goal, from 72 yards out to 16Missed FGTulane: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Tulane: Punt, from 80 yards out to 75PuntSouth Alabama: Punt, from 82 yards out to 75PuntTulane: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 72DownsTulane: Turned over on downs, from 28 yards out to 44Downs

From South Alabama’s side

South Alabama’s best moment: Martin 16-yd TD run, South Alabama leads 10-0 (Q1 1:31). It lifted South Alabama’s win chance by 27 points.

5 lead changes.

Box score

Tulane 28, South Alabama 24

South Alabama covered +9.5 by 5.5. The total, 52, went over 48.5.

South AlabamaTulaneTotal yardsSouth Alabama 478Tulane 424478424Passing yardsSouth Alabama 296Tulane 212296212Rushing yardsSouth Alabama 182Tulane 212182212First downsSouth Alabama 25Tulane 132513TurnoversSouth Alabama 0Tulane 000Time of possessionSouth Alabama 37:40Tulane 22:2037:4022:20
Team totalsSouth AlabamaTulane
Total yards478424
Passing22 of 32, 296 yds14 of 22, 212 yds
Rushing40 for 182 yds29 for 212 yds
First downs2513
Third down10 of 166 of 12
Fourth down0 of 20 of 1
Turnovers00
Penalties6 for 46 yds4 for 30 yds
Time of possession37:4022:20

South Alabama leaders

  • Passing Bishop Davenport 22 of 32, 296 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing PJ Martin 15 for 73 yds, 1 TD; Bishop Davenport 9 for 50 yds
  • Receiving Brendan Jenkins 9 for 119 yds, 1 TD; Anthony Eager 2 for 64 yds, 1 TD

Tulane leaders

  • Passing Kadin Semonza 14 of 22, 212 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jaylin Lucas 11 for 214 yds, 1 TD; Johnnie Daniels 6 for 8 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Destyn Hill 4 for 91 yds, 1 TD; Garrett Mmahat 3 for 40 yds

No rain through the game

83° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Yulman Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Tulane favoredSouth Alabama favored100%Win chanceTulaneRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Tulane favoredSouth Alabama favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 1:31 left6:33 p.m.
South Alabama 10, Tulane 0 · Tulane 39% to win
no rain · 82°
Martin 16-yd TD run, South Alabama leads 10-0

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at New Orleans/lakefro airport, 8.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

South Alabama · 4-8

Rated 60th in our preseason ratings, 61st now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Southern Miss as a 2.5-point underdog.

L 26-49 @ Texas State #53 of 667

lost by 23 as a 9.5-point underdog

South Alabama lost 26-49 at Texas State. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 20%.

W 42-35 vs Southern Miss #108 of 667

won by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

South Alabama won 42-35 vs Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 54%, low 45%, high better than 99%.

W 26-14 @ UL Monroe #205 of 667

won by 12 as a 4.5-point favorite

South Alabama won 26-14 at UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 49%, low 11%, high better than 99%.

L 22-31 vs Louisiana #118 of 667

lost by 9 as a 3.5-point favorite

South Alabama lost 22-31 vs Louisiana. Chance to win started at 70%, low under 1%, high 74%.

W 38-31 @ Georgia State #164 of 667

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

South Alabama won 38-31 at Georgia State. Chance to win started at 59%, low 34%, high 94%.

L 14-15 vs Arkansas State #138 of 667

lost by 1 as an 8.5-point favorite

South Alabama lost 14-15 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 96%.

L 24-31 @ Troy #87 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

South Alabama lost 24-31 at Troy. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 63%.

L 22-36 @ North TexasTop 25 #78 of 667

lost by 14 as an 11.5-point underdog

South Alabama lost 22-36 at North Texas. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 40%.

L 20-38 vs Coastal Carolina #118 of 667

lost by 18 as a 14.5-point favorite

South Alabama lost 20-38 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 90%, low 5%, high 93%.

L 15-31 @ AuburnTop 25 #15 of 667

lost by 16 as a 26.5-point underdog

South Alabama lost 15-31 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 4%.

L 31-33 vs TulaneTop 25 #48 of 667

lost by 2 as a 13.5-point underdog

South Alabama lost 31-33 vs Tulane. Chance to win started at 25%, low under 1%, high 83%.

W 38-21 vs Morgan State #189 of 667

won by 17 as a 28.5-point favorite

South Alabama won 38-21 vs Morgan State. Chance to win started at 97%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Tulane · 11-3

Rated 75th in our preseason ratings, 74th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 13-point win over North Texas as a 2.5-point underdog.

L 10-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #5 of 667

lost by 31 as a 16.5-point underdog

Tulane lost 10-41 at Ole Miss. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 8%.

W 34-21 vs North TexasTop 25 #33 of 667

won by 13 as a 2.5-point underdog

Tulane won 34-21 vs North Texas. Chance to win started at 52%, low 28%, high better than 99%.

W 27-0 vs Charlotte #234 of 667

won by 27 as a 31.5-point favorite

Tulane won 27-0 vs Charlotte. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 37-13 @ Temple #156 of 667

won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite

Tulane won 37-13 at Temple. Chance to win started at 62%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

W 35-24 vs Florida Atlantic #102 of 667

won by 11 as a 17.5-point favorite

Tulane won 35-24 vs Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 92%, low 86%, high better than 99%.

W 38-32 @ MemphisTop 25 #42 of 667

won by 6 as a 3.5-point underdog

Tulane won 38-32 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 32%, low 32%, high better than 99%.

L 26-48 @ UTSA #67 of 667

lost by 22 as a 5.5-point favorite

Tulane lost 26-48 at UTSA. Chance to win started at 66%, low under 1%, high 70%.

W 24-17 vs Army #96 of 667

won by 7 as a 10.5-point favorite

Tulane won 24-17 vs Army. Chance to win started at 82%, low 29%, high better than 99%.

W 26-19 vs East Carolina #65 of 667

won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite

Tulane won 26-19 vs East Carolina. Chance to win started at 74%, low 42%, high better than 99%.

W 31-14 @ Tulsa #151 of 667

won by 17 as a 14.5-point favorite

Tulane won 31-14 at Tulsa. Chance to win started at 80%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

L 10-45 @ Ole MissTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 35 as an 11.5-point underdog

Tulane lost 10-45 at Ole Miss. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 15%.

W 34-27 vs Duke #65 of 667

won by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog

Tulane won 34-27 vs Duke. Chance to win started at 57%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

W 33-31 @ South Alabama #79 of 667

won by 2 as a 13.5-point favorite

Tulane won 33-31 at South Alabama. Chance to win started at 75%, low 17%, high better than 99%.

W 23-3 vs Northwestern #64 of 667

won by 20 as a 6.5-point favorite

Tulane won 23-3 vs Northwestern. Chance to win started at 78%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Tulane

  • Wk 1Lat Duke3-17

South Alabama

  • Wk 1Wvs SE Louisiana39-14

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Tulane’s explosive plays against South Alabama, 82 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Tulane’s explosive plays against South Alabama’s defense

    82 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Tulane offense, 100th percentile · South Alabama defense, 18th

  2. South Alabama’s rushing EPA against Tulane’s defense

    45 pointsweakerstronger50th

    South Alabama offense, 81st percentile · Tulane defense, 36th

  3. Tulane’s EPA/play against South Alabama’s defense

    25 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Tulane offense, 29th percentile · South Alabama defense, 4th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

South AlabamaTulane
EPA/play, offense
South Alabama · 67Tulane · 29
EPA/play, defense
South Alabama · 4Tulane · 36
Success rate, offense
South Alabama · 45Tulane · 2
Success rate, defense
South Alabama · 2Tulane · 35
Explosive-play rate, offense
South Alabama · 82Tulane · 100
Explosive-play rate, defense
South Alabama · 18Tulane · 57
Rush EPA, offense
South Alabama · 81Tulane · 45
Rush EPA, defense
South Alabama · 13Tulane · 36
Pass EPA, offense
South Alabama · 75Tulane · 25
Pass EPA, defense
South Alabama · 18Tulane · 48

The series

Tulane leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 2013 · Tulane has won the last 3

  • 2025Tulane 33-31Tulane won 33-31 at South Alabama. Chance to win started at 75%, low 17%, high better than 99%.
  • 2023Tulane 37-17Tulane won 37-17 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 61%, low 61%, high better than 99%.
  • 2020Tulane 27-24Tulane won 27-24 at South Alabama. Chance to win started at 76%, low 8%, high 93%.
  • 2013South Alabama 41-39

Each line is Tulane’s chance to win through that meeting. Tulane is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

South Alabama fans are in a better mood than Tulane fans (92nd vs 68th among FBS fanbases), even with Tulane favored.

  • Model · 53%
  • Line · 78%
  • Tulane fans · 68th
  • South Alabama fans · 92nd

Tulane favored by 9.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Tulane by 9.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward South Alabama.

opened −10now −9.5

The total fell 7 points.

opened 55.5now 48.5

Spread: −10 → −9.5 · Total: 55.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Tulane is worth +6.1 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 82nd percentile.

70% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (35-15 home, 25-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.9 at home vs. away over 106 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 126 miles to get here.

Where next