The rest of the season
Two real tests left: South Florida 53%, Navy 64%
Win out 28% · expect 2.0 of 3 more wins
Memphis's chance to win each game left, from our model: South Florida 53%, Navy 64%, Temple 84%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Standing3rd in the American Athletic · 4-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Marcus Stokes 2,532 · Rushing Jaylin Carter 929 · Receiving Hunter Tipton 495 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Memphis:athletics siteAmerican AthleticX@TigersAthleticsYouTubeInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #100 | #91 | +4.5✓ +10.5 | @UNLV | W 27-21 139 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Stokes 223 · Rush Carter 97 · Rec Davis 62 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #100 | #160 | −10.5✓ +7.5 | Arkansas State | W 42-24 122 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Stokes 188 · Rush Carter 183 · Rec Kluse 40 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #97 | #29 | +9.5✗ −8.5 | @Boise State | L 20-38 127 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Stokes 384 · Rush Carter 95 · Rec Tipton 229 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #91 | #171 | −33.5✗ −9.5 | UT Martin | W 45-21 132 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Stokes 258 · Rush Thompson 110 · Rec Hayes 57 |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #96 | #168 | −18.5✓ +32.5 | @Charlotte | W 59-8 129 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Stokes 318 · Rush Carter 76 · Rec Hayes 123 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #77 | #69 | −15.5✓ +9.5 | UAB | W 38-13 138 | 5-1 | 2-0 | Pass Stokes 164 · Rush Carter 132 · Rec Chapman 57 |
| 7 | Oct 16 | #56 | #91 | −6.5✗ −20.5 | @Tulane | L 17-31 141 | 5-2 | 2-1 | Pass Stokes 306 · Rush Carter 135 · Rec Burnside 151 |
| 8 | Oct 22 | #62 | #95 | −10.5✗ −3.5 | East Carolina | W 41-34 157 Roaring | 6-2 | 3-1 | Pass Stokes 320 · Rush Covey 79 · Rec Davis 91 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #65 | #49 | −6✓ +21 | Army | W 49-22 136 | 7-2 | 4-1 | Pass Stokes 371 · Rush Carter 96 · Rec Hayes 86 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 12 | #52 | #68 | @South Florida | 8 pm ET · ESPN53% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Navy | 12 pm ET64% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | Temple | time TBA · ESPN84% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Memphis, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Memphis: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Army | W 49-22 | 554 | 1 | 28:05 | +0.430 | 61.3% | 1.05 | Best success rate |
| Oct 22 | East Carolina | W 41-34 | 484 | 1 | 30:59 | +0.299 | 47.5% | 1.25 | One-score win |
| Oct 16 | @Tulane | L 17-31 | 488 | 6 | 29:12 | -0.277 | 41.8% | 1.13 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | UAB | W 38-13 | 394 | 0 | 26:18 | +0.267 | 50.7% | 1.02 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @Charlotte | W 59-8 | 674 | 0 | 40:25 | +0.332 | 57.1% | 1.17 | Blowout win |
| Sep 19 | UT Martin | W 45-21 | 572 | 1 | 31:14 | +0.324 | 55.8% | 1.23 | |
| Sep 12 | @Boise State | L 20-38 | 519 | 1 | 20:04 | +0.015 | 32.1% | 2.21 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | Arkansas State | W 42-24 | 523 | 2 | 29:27 | +0.491 | 49.2% | 1.49 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @UNLV | W 27-21 | 418 | 1 | 24:51 | +0.288 | 47.5% | 1.09 | One-score win |
| Season average (9 games) | 514 | 1.4 | +0.241 | 49.2% | 1.29 | ||||
Memphis's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
2% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Rice over North Texas
Sat 4 pm · Moves Memphis’s conference title chance by 5 points
Root for Florida Atlantic over UTSA
Thu 7:30 pm · Moves Memphis’s conference title chance by 5 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Charles Huff's first season at Memphis follows an 8-5 record, with a coordinator change reshaping units as the program seeks to build on its upward trajectory.
Statusbackground
Charles Huff took over as Memphis's head coach, replacing Ryan Silverfield.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Memphis · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 3%; 8 wins 22%; 9 wins 47%; 10 wins 28%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Charles Huff took over as Memphis's head coach, replacing Ryan Silverfield. It is replaces 6-year head coach Ryan Silverfield (50-24). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is thin so far, and the story is still developing.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 19 of 652 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
Memphis builds 10-win teams and watches them get raided — for the players, for the coach, for the conference invite that never comes — and the chip is that the city keeps producing winners the powers keep treating as a parts bin.
The fanbase watches every realignment shuffle leave Memphis on the outside while it out-wins programs that got the call — the sense that the city beats people who'll never have to share a conference…
Memphis · Game-day weather
Typical at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 86
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Memphis is the American Athletic program whose Mike Norvell era produced multiple top-25 finishes and whose 2024 11-2 ceiling under Ryan Silverfield kept the trajectory upward.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
92nd percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Memphis · 2026