Next game: at South Florida
South Florida’s best edge on Memphis is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Memphis offense against South Florida defense
South Florida offense against Memphis defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.40 EPA/play | 2 | 9 | 179 / 259 | 69.1 | 2532 #5 FBS | 9.8 | 25 #1 FBS | 6 | 178.5 | 74 | 69.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 259 pass attempts and 74 carries in 9 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. The rare part: he can push it deep — and he finds the end zone, too This week's matchup — QB Stokes operates within the system without forcing anything. Jr. is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.9 96th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts TD rate9.7% 98th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marcus Stokes's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.24 EPA/play | 6 | 9 | 151 | 929 #8 FBS | 6.2 | 10 #12 FBS | 80 | 10.7 | 16.7 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchant· Boom-or-bustCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 151 carries and 14 catches in 9 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Carter hits the crease and outruns the angle. Crowther is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry6.2 79th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.6% 76th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaylin Carter's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.04 EPA/play | 28 | 9 | 77 | 418 | 5.4 | 0 | 36 | 11.7 | 15.6 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 77 carries and 3 catches in 9 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Covey does a little of everything without one standout trait. Crowther is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry5.4 54th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Manny Covey's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.15 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 33 | 195 | 5.9 | 1 | 38 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Move TE · +0.61 EPA/play | — | 9 | 35 | 495 #75 FBS | 14.1 | 5 #39 FBS | 87 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. Impact starter — 35 catches and 5 carries in 9 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Tipton creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Sullivan is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception14.7 85th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume35 98th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hunter Tipton's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.69 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 29 | 453 | 15.6 | 3 | 76 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 29 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Braylon Burnside's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.65 EPA/play | 11 | 9 | 37 | 452 | 12.2 | 5 #39 FBS | 93 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 37 catches and 1 carry in 9 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Hayes wins underneath on volume and route precision. Rodgers is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Reception volume37 84th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate13.5% 75th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jermane Hayes's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.88 EPA/play | 13 | 7 | 23 | 400 | 17.4 | 6 #23 FBS | 48 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Davis beats you over the top. Rodgers is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception17.5 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate26.1% 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jemyri Davis's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.01 EPA/play | 1 | 6 | 14 | 233 | 16.6 | 2 | 45 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Chapman moves the chains on third down. Rodgers is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception14.9 66th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 6th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tychaun Chapman's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.40 EPA/play | 12 | 6 | 7 | 137 | 19.6 | 1 | 40 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.99 EPA/play | 14 | 7 | 11 | 130 | 11.8 | 2 | 46 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE O'Callaghan shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Sullivan is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception9.7 bottom 36th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Aidan O'Callaghan's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 15 | 8 | 36 | 22 | 8.5 #40 FBS | 5.5 #29 FBS | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 36 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.6% 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Elijah Kinsler's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 14 | 9 | 27 | 13 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 27 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.0% bottom 43th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View J'Mond Tapp's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 81th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Taylor Burton's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 56 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.8% 69th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View K.J. Miles's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaden Mckinney's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Jacari Gatling's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 4 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.2% 61th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Joseph Head Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 93 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.0% bottom 33th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jabari Ishmael's full player page | |||||||
| 99 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 9 | 9 | 66 | 37 | 29 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Starter — 66 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 77th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume66 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Michael Montgomery's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 22 | 9 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 42 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The rare part: he covers, too — and he ranges sideline to sideline, too 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.5% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Solo tackle rate0.7 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Zach Ruffin's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 34 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 4.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.7% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate10.5% 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kadan Spratling's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 25 | 8 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate23.5% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View JJ Clayton's full player page | |||||||||
| 41 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 40 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 43 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 3 | 9 | 40 | 3 | 3 #16 FBS | 2 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 40 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.5% bottom 49th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dylan Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 2 | 9 | 31 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 2.5 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 31 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume31 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chauncey Logan's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | — | 8 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 30 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ian Foster's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 1 | 8 | 25 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ellis Ellis Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 5 | 8 | 21 | 4 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.0% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ahmere Foster's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 8 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Anthony Richard Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 6 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 80 | 9 | 10/13 | 76.9 | 44/44 | 74 | 44 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 30 | 8 | 33 | 1369 | 41.5 | 53 | 11 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.18 EPA/play | 17 | 6 | 6 | 131 | 21.8 | 0 | 43 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.18 EPA/play | 17 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 | 19 |
Biggest plays from Memphis’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Memphis’s games this season, whoever made them.
Overtime, 0:00 · East Carolina down 7Ellis Ellis Jr. intercepts Mitch GriffisEast Carolina at Memphis, week 8Overtime, 0:00 · East Carolina 34, Memphis 41▼34%East Carolina’s chance to win, 34% to 0%▼34%East Carolina’s chance to win, 34% to 0%M.Griffis pass intercepted by E.Ellis Jr. at MEM00, Touchback▶Watch from this play
Q1, 2:55 · East Carolina up 3Ashton Gray runs 1 yard for a touchdownEast Carolina at Memphis, week 8Q1, 2:55 · East Carolina 10, Memphis 0▲30%East Carolina’s chance to win, 25% to 55%▲30%East Carolina’s chance to win, 25% to 55%Ashton Gray 1 yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q2, 0:00 · Tulane up 6Tavare Smith takes an interception 76 yards for a pick-sixMemphis at Tulane, week 7Q2, 0:00 · Tulane 23, Memphis 1076Pick-six76Pick-sixPick-sixTJ Smith 76 yd Interception Return (Cooper Helmke Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q2, 3:26 · Arkansas State down 4, takes the leadTrey Owens finds Kenyon Clay for a 75-yard touchdownArkansas State at Memphis, week 1Q2, 3:26 · Arkansas State 17, Memphis 147575-yard touchdown pass7575-yard touchdown pass75-yard touchdown passT.Owens pass complete short right to K.Clay caught at ASU37, for 75 yards to the MEM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Sun Belt Conference- Q2, 14:08 · Memphis breaks the tieMarcus Stokes finds Braylon Burnside for a 76-yard touchdownMemphis at Tulane, week 7Q2, 14:08 · Memphis 10, Tulane 37676-yard touchdown pass7676-yard touchdown pass76-yard touchdown passM.Stokes pass complete short middle to S.Burnside caught at MEM40, for 76 yards to the TLN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 1:30 · East Carolina down 7, ties itMitch Griffis finds Landon Sides for a 20-yard touchdownEast Carolina at Memphis, week 8Q4, 1:30 · East Carolina 34, Memphis 341:30Game-tying touchdown for East Carolina with 1:30 left1:30Game-tying touchdown for East Carolina with 1:30 leftGame-tying touchdown for East Carolina with 1:30 leftM.Griffis pass complete deep middle to L.Sides caught at MEM00, for 20 yards to the MEM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Memphis lost at Boise State after being 90% to win; the closest win was against East Carolina, down to 5%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Memphis during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Memphis
through 9 games
2026 stat leaders · MemphisMichael Montgomery leads Memphis with 66 tackles through 9 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+22 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Memphis fields an elite run-heavy offense behind a solid defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Memphis reads strongest in passing EPA (top 5%) and passing EPA allowed (top 12%); the crux lives in field position (O), where Memphis sits at the 9th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Memphis is worth +3.3 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 34th percentile of 133 programs
82% at home, 52% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (40-9 home, 24-22 away). Interval ±3.3.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Memphis has beaten the number by +2.1 more at home than away over 103 games. That is inside the ±5.0 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium seats 58,325 and has averaged 49% full (28,299, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 421 miles to get here since 2018 — 66th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 11% of the 2026 roster (11 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 58 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downCortez Braham is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatBrady Kluse is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Garbage timeFrank Peasant sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Jaylin Carter and Manny Covey split the carries (150/225 vs 75/225) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jermane Hayes (WR) and Hunter Tipton (TE) split the targets (43/85 vs 42/85) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Hunter Tipton produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Memphis actually scores
87th percentile quality, 20th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Memphis’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 83rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 84th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Memphis hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
92nd percentile success on standard downs, 93rd on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Memphis by half
1st-half offense ranks 81st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 88th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Memphis’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.24; 84th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.08. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.39 raw vs. 0.07 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Memphis’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (71.6% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 226-play sample) — mid-pack, 128 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Memphis’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.6% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 169-play sample) — mid-pack, 27 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on their own fumbles: 54% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.
7 of 13 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 15 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in more than most: 32% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
11 interceptions of 34 disrupted passes (23 deflected, 11 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags have favored them: 54 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 45 committed, 62 yards to the good.
401 penalty yards committed vs. 463 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Memphis
Most similar programs · MemphisReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Usual during the game around Nov 26: 52°, between 37° and 62° in about 7 in 10 games (25 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 67°, and 8 in 10 ran between 53° and 79° (47 of 52 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.