The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Air Force 58%, Navy 60%, East Carolina 68%
Win out 19% · expect 2.7 of 4 more wins
Army's chance to win each game left, from our model: Air Force 58%, East Carolina 68%, Rice 82%, Navy 60%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 1% to 3%, peaking at 7% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing4th in the American Athletic · 4-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Cale Hellums 462 · Rushing Cale Hellums 874 · Receiving Bradyn Anderson 163 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Army:athletics siteYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #39 | #206 | −37.5✓ +18.5 | Bryant | W 59-3 70 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hellums 59 · Rush Mundell 105 · Rec Howard 52 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #39 | #64 | −3✗ −7 | South Florida | L 24-28 117 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Hellums 91 · Rush Nwawuihe 94 · Rec Mundell 47 |
| 3 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 4 | Sep 25 | #41 | #95 | −4= | @Temple | W 21-17 115 | 2-1 | 1-1 | Pass Hellums 36 · Rush Hellums 104 · Rec Nwawuihe 20 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #44 | #94 | +1.5✗ −0.5 | @Louisiana Tech | L 29-31 126 | 2-2 | 1-1 | Pass Hellums 151 · Rush Howard 158 · Rec Anderson 79 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #47 | #86 | −5.5✗ −2.5 | Tulane | W 20-17 117 | 3-2 | 2-1 | Pass Hellums 19 · Rush Hellums 223 · Rec Mundell 11 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #50 | #108 | −2.5✓ +29.5 | Florida Atlantic | W 56-24 139 | 4-2 | 3-1 | Pass Hellums 2 · Rush Hellums 195 · Rec Howard 2 |
| 8 | Oct 23 | #45 | #97 | −1.5✓ +1.5 | @Tulsa | W 38-35 124 | 5-2 | 4-1 | Pass Hellums 64 · Rush Nwawuihe 135 · Rec Anderson 61 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #49 | #65 | +6✗ −21 | @Memphis | L 22-49 136 | 5-3 | 4-2 | Pass Hellums 40 · Rush Nwawuihe 100 · Rec Mundell 16 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #59 | #77 | −3 | Air Force | 7:30 pm ET · CBS58% to win | |||
| 11 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | East Carolina | 12 pm ET · CBS Sports Network68% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Rice | time TBA82% to win | ||||||
| 14 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 15 | Dec 12 | +2.5 | Navy (N) | 3 pm ET · CBS | |||||
Win chances are our model for Army, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Army: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Memphis | L 22-49 | 365 | 2 | 31:55 | +0.127 | 42.2% | 1.16 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 23 | @Tulsa | W 38-35 | 384 | 0 | 33:34 | +0.265 | 39.1% | 1.57 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | Florida Atlantic | W 56-24 | 481 | 0 | 32:48 | +0.612 | 57.8% | 1.33 | Blowout win |
| Oct 10 | Tulane | W 20-17 | 348 | 0 | 35:34 | +0.185 | 50.0% | 0.84 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Louisiana Tech | L 29-31 | 421 | 1 | 32:05 | +0.234 | 47.9% | 1.30 | One-score loss |
| Sep 25 | @Temple | W 21-17 | 315 | 0 | 38:01 | +0.246 | 47.0% | 1.04 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | South Florida | L 24-28 | 347 | 1 | 35:46 | +0.128 | 51.6% | 0.65 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Bryant | W 59-3 | 648 | 0 | 32:58 | +0.686 | 65.3% | 1.29 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 414 | 0.5 | +0.310 | 50.1% | 1.15 | ||||
Army's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
We really just focused our efforts and our concentration on Temple, who’s got an outstanding team
The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.
Statusfront page
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Army · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 9%; 7 wins 30%; 8 wins 40%; 9 wins 19%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Army aac championship lengthened, from 12.5% to 5.3% (down 7.2 points) between Nov 1 and Nov 2, 2026. The win total is down 0.1. The market moved and the fan conversation hasn't caught up. Little discussion of a line move usually means the information arrived before the coverage did. Discussion is thin, and the market moved faster than the reaction.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read: when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter: lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 384 of 1376 board posts (28%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
Army has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 37% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 41% a year ago. It is a 23-14 record over the last three regular seasons. The model registered a structural rise before the coverage did. Results on the field will test it.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
Army's whole season bends toward one Saturday in December — Beat Navy — and in 2025 the Black Knights lost it 17-16, surrendering the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy and the only standard West Point truly keeps.
Black Knights fans say the sport treats Army as a quaint December novelty, a parade of cadets and a salute, and forgets that those same cadets went 12-2 and won the Trophy a year ago; they say the…
Army · Game-day weather
Typical at Michie Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 89 to 93
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 112 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Army is the West Point service academy whose triple-option offense and Commander-in-Chief's Trophy chase make every Saturday a salute to a different version of college football.
Roster and recruiting
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
59th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
3Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Army · 2026