garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew
Carson Smith sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
our readdeveloping
Army
1-1Latest
The Navy rivalryNoah Short produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.our read
American Athletic · Jeff Monken, year 13 (90-64) · Michie Stadium · 38,000 · 22,604 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#38 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #63 (+2.2) · FPI #78
The marketno line yetat Temple · our model 65% Army · a number, not a pick
LastL 24–28 vs South Florida · Sat Sep 12 · Godspower Nwawuihe 94 rush yds, 1 TD, 4 rec yds
Nextat Temple · Fri Sep 25 · 4 pm ET · Lincoln Financial Field · series 8-7, won the last 4 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Army · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #39 | #206 | -37.5✓ | Bryant | W 59–3 70 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #38 | #67 | -3✗ | South Florida | L 24–28 117 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 25 | #38 | #92 | @Temple | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Louisiana Tech | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Tulane | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Florida Atlantic | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Tulsa | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Memphis | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 8 | Air Force | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | East Carolina | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Rice | ||||||
| 15 | Dec 12 | Navy (N) |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | South Florida | L 24–28 | 347 | 1 | 35:46 | +0.188 | 51.6% | 76.3% | |
| Sep 5 | Bryant | W 59–3 | 648 | 0 | 32:58 | +0.686 | 65.3% | 128.7% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 498 | 0.5 | +0.437 | 58.4% | 102.5% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Army's whole season bends toward one Saturday in December — Beat Navy — and in 2025 the Black Knights lost it 17-16, surrendering the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy and the only standard West Point truly keeps.
Title DroughtSince 2024 · 2 yrs
Black Knights fans say the sport treats Army as a quaint December novelty — a parade of cadets and a salute — and forgets that those same cadets went 12-2 and won the Trophy a year ago; they say the r…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Army fans
South Florida fans on Army
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-6 · last season
Game feel45rock fightscombined pts / game14th highest-scoring of 14 in the American Athletic
Heart rate4-5white-knucklein one-score games (9 of 13)1st most one-score games of 14 in the American Athletic
Margin+2.2competitiveavg scoring margin8th best margin of 14 in the American Athletic
Tempo67average paceoffensive plays / game9th fastest of 13 in the American Athletic
Big plays1.18grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)14th most explosive of 14 in the American Athletic
Home crowd28,390avg attendance5th biggest crowds of 14 in the American Athletic
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Army has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
They’ve got a great quarterback, and their kicker might be one of the best kickers, maybe the best kicker in the country
The forecast
Next Sep 25
vs Temple · away
SolidRun-heavy, ground-controlMethodical, ball-control
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#71 in field+100000
AAC title#6 in market+750
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Army · the story right now
5 storylines developing
What Army's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
underdog2025 cycle✓ factnew
Noah Short produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Noah Short is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
dynastythis cycle~read★new
Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.
what happenedArmy has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 33% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 44% a year ago. ✓ fact
the contexta 23-14 record over the last three regular seasons
our readfront page
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Army collapsed 37 spots in SP+ — Jeff Monken's task is to halt the slide under the weight of a triple-option offense with no talent advantage.
what happenedArmy enters 2025 rated No. 74 in SP+ (+0.8), down 37 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downArmy's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Army · 2026
Outcome band · Army · 2026Army's most likely season is 5-7 — no postseason. The floor is 3-9; the ceiling is 8-5.
Floor 3-9Ceiling 8-5Base 5-7
0 wins13 wins
Floor3-9No postseason, 2 fewer wins.
Base5-7No postseason.
Ceiling8-5A bowl game.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Army · Program power Confidence
Army is moving up in the ratings, and the data says it's real.
Army has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 33% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 44% a year ago. It is a 23-14 record over the last three regular seasons. A real, measurable rise in the model. The room has caught up; now the schedule has to agree.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers3 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of climbing the power tiers is the expectation tax: the same season that looked like a breakout last year now reads as a disappointment. Watch whether the schedule lets the run actually show up on the field.
Source of record: Army has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 33% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 44% a year ago — a 23-14 record over the last three regular seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“USF Defeats Army on Dramatic Game-Winning Touchdown” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“USF Defeats Army on Dramatic Game-Winning Touchdown”
flteams.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish/momentum items -- the case it's working.›
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
“USF comeback stuns Army, 28-24, on a last-minute game-winning TD pass”
WUSF · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“USF rallies from seemingly hopeless to heroic in stunning comeback win over Army”
Green, Gold, and Bold · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“USF Stuns Army in Wild Comeback”
NGSC Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Following now · Army · Season outlook Confidence
Army's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
Army enters 2025 rated No. 74 in SP+ (+0.8), down 37 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers3 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 22% volume · negative overall
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Army collapsed 37 spots in SP+ — Jeff Monken's task is to halt the slide under the weight of a triple-option offense with no talent advantage.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Army enters 2025 rated No. 74 in SP+ (+0.8), down 37 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“USF Defeats Army on Dramatic Game-Winning Touchdown” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“USF Defeats Army on Dramatic Game-Winning Touchdown”
flteams.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“USF comeback stuns Army, 28-24, on a last-minute game-winning TD pass”
WUSF · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“USF rallies from seemingly hopeless to heroic in stunning comeback win over Army”
Green, Gold, and Bold · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“USF Stuns Army in Wild Comeback”
NGSC Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards22% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (72%).›
This event was in 138 of 633 board posts (22%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Excellent thoughts Coach, as usual. I too was disappointed to see our D put so little pressure on their QB. Wondering....did Jack Bousum and Cody-Harris Miller play very much? I th"
Academy Wars ~ fan take
"The Monken Minions always arrive hours later to pontificate about how to fan. These types of losses have become routine. Well, I was at the game so forgive me for not live posting"
Academy Wars ~ fan take
Board health this week (158 posts): 23% positive · 40% neutral · 37% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Rival pulse
Air Force
Uneasy-7
Commander-in-Chief (AF-Army)
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Army is the West Point service academy whose triple-option offense and Commander-in-Chief's Trophy chase make every Saturday a salute to a different version of college football.
Offense: SolidRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlTempo: Methodical, ball-control
Roster
Roster Reload - Army
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production80%High continuity
Talent Composite#136 nationally247 composite 303.8
Portal Additions0No clear position repair point
Portal Losses2Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#138Depth class
Full roster (196 players)
CBCJ Martin, Caden Brungard, Cole Searight, Darian Smith, David Jakande, Denzell Watkins, Devan Moss, Harrison Mass, Jaxon Hammond, Jaydan Mayes, Jaylen Noisette, Julian Porter, Louis Blakely, Nathan Adejokun, Rob Houston, Taps Hananda, Timothy Wallace, Wanye Chukes, Zane Tallman
DLCael Newton, Dillon Stowers, Donovan Poe, Dontae Samuels, Grayson Baker, Hendrix Beran, Jack Bousum, Jacob Cotterill, Jaden Rogers, Jadon Bumbaugh, Javon Smith, Kody Harris-Miller, Matt Gemma, Nehemiah Allen, Nick Buchys, Ray Dixon, Sam Zagame, Sean Donovan, Thomas Ghislandi, Will McDonald, William Brockmeier, Xander Walker
LBBrendan Foley, Brennan Fisher, Bryson Banks, Cameron Binkowski, Campbell Sager, Christian Winston, Christian Yousefzadeh, Deion Miller, Elijah Easley, Elijah Walton, Isaiah Birl, Jackson Weingart, Jacob Hinton, Jacob Mainord, Jaquavious Moss, Jared Anthony, Kai Woolfolk, Khaled Waliagha, Malcolm Robertson, Max Phenicie, Nick McGlynn, Noah Nixon, Phillip Goodrich, Ryan Wells, Samuel Hayward, Victor Afolabi, Xavier Ryan
OLBen Britton, Ben Konopka, Brady Small, Braeden Helmkamp, Brandon Wraalstad, Carter Glab, Chuck Johnson, Donald Jurek, Donovan Wilkinson, Gregory Meidl, Henry Appleton, Jack Manning, Jake Clapper, James Bland, Jonah Zimmerman, Jordan Sullivan, Kyle Baltazar, Kyle Kloska, Mack O'Halloran, Max Stober, Michael Goodale, Miles Hagan, Noah Marquez, Paolo Gennarelli, Rhett VanBoening, Sam Waters, Teddy Williams, Tim Savchuk, Tyler Lee, Wes Shaw, Xavier Archawski, Xzavier Grabher, Zach Tomosovich, Zak Stoilov
PKAlex Krishan, Andrew Astone, Bryson Hosea, Cole Bowers, Dawson Jones, Jake Hulstein, Joey Scardina, Luca Guerra
QBAndrew Heidel, Bryson Luter, Cale Hellums, Ethan Washington, Godspower Nwawuihe, Nehemiah Vann, Santiago Fernandez, Tanner Wilson, Zach Mundell
RBAden Self, Brady Mott, Carson Smith, Chevas Gregory, Demani Stewart, Elijah Bechtel, Elzie Slaughter, Finbar Malloy, Gavin Madigan, Harrison Orr, Isaiah Linyear, Jaden Pydyn, Jake Rendina, Joe Callerame, Stratton Fuller, Tim Kloska
SBrian Barton, Caleb Williams, Christopher Williams, Daniel Ogordi, David Thom-Rogers, Ethan Bradshaw, Gerritt Gray, Henry Hulbert, JT Poynton, Jaylen Jones, Kayden Soares, Larry Pickett Jr., Owen Madden, Stephen Nnadozie, Victor McNeal
TEBrian Dyer, Charles Daly, Jackson Blanchard, James Rothstein, Josh Greer, Mason Mixon, Noah Prior, Parker Poloskey, Ronan Boyle, Sam Sartin, Tex Brannan
WRAdam Buffington, Aiden Burgy, BJ Alleyne, Brady Anderson, Brian Ray III, Chace Knox, Christian Cherilus, David Clerk, Jackson Kreutzer, Jakiel Kendricks, Josh Milhollin, KP Pointer, Kofi Eduful, Kurt Thompson, Mark Andrzejewski, Mason Smith, Matthew Perkins, Noah Dolbin, Riley Reed, Samari Howard, Stroman Bridges, Tobi Olawole, Tre Benson III
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Army
4 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Army extends Monken's contract
Army locks Monken in after a 28-24 gut-punch to USF — program is betting the triple-option dynasty narrative survives the rough patch, not that it's time to recalibrate.
- Recruiting
Felton commits to Army
SP+ dropped Army 37 spots, class sits at #130 nationally, and the OT depth pressure is real — Felton's commitment at least shores up a defensive back room that needed bodies before fall camp.
- Recruiting
LB Nick Miletto commits to Army
Miletto slots into a linebacker room that needed bodies behind the starters — class rank 130 doesn't tell the whole story when Monken's defense just jumped 37 spots in SP+ and needs the depth to sustain it.
- Recruiting
Ryder Reeve commits to Army
OT depth was a pressure point at #130 nationally — Reeve's family military background isn't a recruiting pitch here, it's the actual reason he's there, and Monken's line room needed this body.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-2.9 net portal points
(raw ledger: -3.0 — unweighted, no position adjustment)OT-2.0
low confidence
RB-1.0
low confidence
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Phillip Goodrich
#1976 national
Profiles like a typical incoming linebacker — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Dominic Basrawala
#2846 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Maverick Diede
#3115 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
50
TX · 12FL · 5GA · 5CA · 4VA · 3WI · 3NC · 2NE · 2+14 more
TX leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 22 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
189 signees across 36 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Army player grew up 762 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Middle 50%562–1,411 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi5%10 of 189 players
Farthest4,963 miChevas Gregory · Nanakuli, HI
Closest26 miSean Donovan · Danbury, CT
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Michie Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 189 of 196 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Service academies are left out of the national ranking: their rosters arrive through congressional nomination and a service commitment, not ordinary recruiting, so ranking them against it would compare two different things. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats Army 17-16
[Postgame Thread] ECU Defeats Army 28-6
[Game Thread] Navy vs. Army (3:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Belief history
↓
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
36th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
36th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(62nd among FBS)
(62nd among FBS)
Market 26pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Penalties
Penalty battle
The penalty battle is a wash: 6 penalties committed vs. 8 drawn on opponents.
70 penalty yards committed vs. 51 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site