The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q3 2:05Army punter Wagenseller punts only 20 yards, drawing shock from fansBrilliant punt there.r/CFB game thread
Q4 12:00Army fans rip the surrender punt call with 12 minutes leftCan’t tell if trolling or notr/CFB game threadWhat a fucking surrender call. This announcer is an idiot. Our defense is garbage. You don't have to punt it.r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:13Tulsa misses a 40-yard field goal, keeping Army within one scorec'mon army! edit: not like thatr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:41Army blocks Tulsa punt to set up game-winning touchdown drive
Q4 1:02Fans mock broadcast confusion as Army signals fourth down with 1:02 left"Did the football come out there too?" Meanwhile Army players signaling 4th down and barely celebrating.r/CFB game thread
Army’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Army -1.5), at 46% for Army (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Tulsa or Army flair (53 and 92); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Army’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
How Tulsa fans took it: “Army really thought they were going to pull off the choke job but then we out choked them” r/CFB game thread
When fans got loud
Firestorm
The jump was firestorm; the crowd was steady.
Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.
“Top tier commentary ladies and gentlemen”
A fan of another team
Too close to call on 52% of plays. The winner fell to 6%.
What it cost
Army’s chance to win the conference rose from 4% to 8%.
Win the conference
Army · won4% → ▲8%
Tulsa · lost2% → ▼0%
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Army plays at Memphis on Sat Oct 31 with an 8% chance to win the conference. Tulsa plays at Tulane on Sat Nov 7 with a 0% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Army 38, Tulsa 35
Army covered −1.5 by 1.5. The total, 73, went over 53.5.
Team totals
Army
Tulsa
Total yards
384
410
Passing
8 of 13, 109 yds
23 of 34, 262 yds
Rushing
51 for 275 yds
26 for 148 yds
First downs
16
20
Third down
5 of 14
6 of 12
Fourth down
3 of 4
1 of 1
Turnovers
0
1
Penalties
6 for 30 yds
5 for 30 yds
Time of possession
33:34
26:26
Army leaders
Passing Cale Hellums 7 of 12, 64 yds
Rushing Godspower Nwawuihe 12 for 135 yds, 1 TD; Cale Hellums 30 for 121 yds, 3 TD
Receiving Bradyn Anderson 3 for 61 yds; Samari Howard 3 for 41 yds
Tulsa leaders
Passing Baylor Hayes 23 of 34, 262 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Trequan Jones 5 for 66 yds, 1 TD; Damari Alston 11 for 59 yds
Receiving Jimmy Calloway 10 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Javon Ross 5 for 84 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
69° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the southeast, gusts to 8
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Tulsa International Airport(aw) airport, 4.6 miles away, and Tulsa/lloyd Jones airport, 7.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Army · 4-2
Rated 39th in our preseason ratings, 45th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Army is rated 5.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Tulsa’s rushing EPA against Army, 77 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Tulsa’s rushing EPA against Army’s defense
Tulsa offense, 82nd percentile · Army defense, 5th
Army’s EPA/play against Tulsa’s defense
Army offense, 95th percentile · Tulsa defense, 43rd
Tulsa’s explosive plays against Army’s defense
Tulsa offense, 61st percentile · Army defense, 10th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
ArmyTulsa
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Tulsa leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2007 · Tulsa won the last meeting
2025Tulsa 26-25
2024Army 49-7
2007Tulsa 49-39
Each line is Tulsa’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Tulsa fans are in a better mood than Army fans (69th percentile vs 28th among FBS fanbases), even with Army favored.
Model · 34%
Line · 45%
Tulsa fans · 69th
Army fans · 28th
Army favored by 1.5 · Total 53.5
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Army.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −1.5 → +1.5 · Total: 50.5 → 53.5
The books’ cut: 4.6%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Tulsa is worth +1.4 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile.
40% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (17-26 home, 17-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,234 miles to get here.
A Tulsa fan
Army 38-35 Tulsa