Tulsa at Tulane
Tulsa (4‑4) at Tulane (4‑4) — Tulsa is favored by 1.5. Tulsa’s rushing offense is at the 84th percentile; Tulane’s run defense is at the 26th.
How they got here
Last three games
Tulsa · 4-4
Rated 107th in our preseason ratings, 90th now, up 17 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 35-38 vs Army No. 49 of 668 teams
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog
Last three games
Tulane · 4-4
Rated 75th in our preseason ratings, 85th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 14-point win over Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Tulsa’s rushing EPA against Tulane, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Tulsa’s rushing EPA against Tulane’s defense
Tulsa offense, 84th percentile · Tulane defense, 26th
Tulane’s explosive plays against Tulsa’s defense
Tulane offense, 100th percentile · Tulsa defense, 60th
Tulane’s success rate against Tulsa’s defense
Tulane offense, 3rd percentile · Tulsa defense, 45th
What’s at stake
Tulsa
- Tulsa needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 93% to get there with a win here, 60% with a loss.
- Tulsa hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2020.
Tulane
- Tulane needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 86% to get there with a win here, 46% with a loss.
- Tulane is the New Orleans private university whose 1925 Sugar Bowl founding + Willie Fritz 2022 12-2 Cotton Bowl championship + Yulman Stadium urban-campus identity define what historic-southern-football looks like.
The series
Tulsa leads the series 13-8
21 meetings since 1968 · Tulane has won the last 3
- 2025Tulane 31-14
- 2023Tulane 24-22
- 2022Tulane 27-13
- 2021Tulsa 20-13
- 2020Tulsa 30-24
Each line is Tulane’s chance to win through that meeting. Tulane is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Tulsa
The chip · vs the national mediaTulsa fans are tired of being the program everyone forgets is in the FBS — the 4,000-student private school nobody schedules out of respect. They'll remind you it has more bowl history than schools five times its size.
What this game touches
The long slide from the Graham/Blankenship peak. From the 2010 Conference USA title and Bill Blankenship's 11-3 in 2012, Tulsa has had one truly memorable team since (a 2020 AAC title-game run) and otherwise churned coaches and losing records — a 4-8 (1-7) first year under Tre Lamb in 2025 the latest reminder the offense isn't humming the way it once did.
Tulane
The chip · vs big brotherAcross town and up the road sits LSU, the SEC giant that swallowed all of Louisiana's football oxygen after Tulane walked away from the conference. Fans believe the state forgot the Green Wave existed — and that crashing the Playoff was the loudest possible way to remind everyone New Orleans has a team of its own.
What this game touches
Talent that keeps leaving as soon as it works. Tulane finally got good again — a 2022 Cotton Bowl run, an 11-3 2025, back-to-back AAC titles — but the success keeps walking out the door: Willie Fritz left for Houston, then Jon Sumrall left for Florida the moment he reached the Playoff, forcing Tulane to promote Will Hall and start the cycle again.
Best players
Tulsa
- Chris Thompson Jr. (LB) · 81 tackles
- Dax Collins (LB) · 61 tackles
- Tyson Williams (CB) · 47 tackles
Tulane
- Dickson Agu (LB) · 78 tackles
- Kevin Adams (S) · 72 tackles
- Makai Williams (LB) · 46 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Tulsa fans are in a better mood than Tulane fans (81st percentile vs 24th among FBS fanbases), even with Tulane favored.
- Model · 59%
- Line · 45%
- Tulane fans · 24th
- Tulsa fans · 81st
Tulsa favored by 1.5 · Total 49.5
Tulsa by 1.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Tulsa’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Yulman Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 92, noon Saturdays 77
Tulsa at Tulane · Saturday, Nov. 7 · noon ET · Yulman Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Yulman Stadium: noon Saturdays score 77, 3:30 pm 81, 7:30 pm 92.
- noon: 77, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 81, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Tulane is worth +5.7 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.
69% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (35-16 home, 26-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.5 at home vs. away over 108 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 545 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Tulane
- Wk 4Wvs Southern Miss24-21
- Wk 6Lat Army17-20
- Wk 7Wvs Memphis31-17
- Wk 8Lvs UTSA19-42
- Wk 9Wat Charlotte38-31
Tulsa
- Wk 4Lat Arkansas6-34
- Wk 5Lvs North Texas44-45
- Wk 6Lat Navy26-34
- Wk 7Wat Rice38-17
- Wk 8Lvs Army35-38
Power rating by week
Tulane is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Tulane.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +3 → +1.5 · Total: 48.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Tulsa 20, Tulane 13Nov 13, 2021
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2020.