UTSA beats Tulane 42-19
UTSA beat Tulane 42-19. Share this game
We had UTSA favored. It won.
Next: UTSA at Florida Atlantic, Thu Nov 5 · 8:00 PM ET
Next: Tulane at Charlotte, Fri Oct 30 · 7:00 PM ET · Tulane favored by 10
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UTSA a 67% chance, and the closing betting line (UTSA was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
UTSA won by 23, after dipping to 26% in the first quarter.
Up to 74% in the first quarter, then Tulane lost it.
Tulane · Q1 14:5521 unanswered
UTSA · Q1 0:13UTSA 42-19 TulaneUTSA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Tulane 19-42 UTSATulane lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 8:59FumbleLewis run for a 11-yd loss, fumblesUTSA 67% → 81% (+14)
- 2Q3 9:34Henderson 9-yd TD run, UTSA leads 28-13UTSA 81% → 95% (+14)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 8:59FumbleLewis run for a 11-yd loss, fumblesTulane 33% → 19% (−14)
- 2Q3 9:34Henderson 9-yd TD run, UTSA leads 28-13Tulane 19% → 5% (−14)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (UTSA -3), at 28% for UTSA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
UTSA scored on 6 of its 14 drives; Tulane on 3 of its 12.
UTSA’s drives are teal, Tulane’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Tulane’s side
Tulane’s best moment: Johnson 56-yd pass to Mmahat (Q2 14:38). It lifted Tulane’s win chance by 11 points.
What it cost
UTSA’s chance to make the playoff rose from 10% to 14%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 24, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
UTSA plays at Florida Atlantic on Thu Nov 5 with a 14% chance to make the playoff. Tulane plays at Charlotte on Fri Oct 30 with a 0% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
UTSA 42, Tulane 19
UTSA covered −3 by 20. The total, 61, went over 52.5.
| Team totals | UTSA | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 396 | 332 |
| Passing | 16 of 23, 173 yds | 24 of 44, 265 yds |
| Rushing | 47 for 223 yds | 22 for 67 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 18 |
| Third down | 12 of 16 | 7 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 6 |
| Penalties | 7 for 57 yds | 6 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 35:19 | 24:41 |
UTSA leaders
- Passing Owen McCown 16 of 23, 173 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Will Henderson III 15 for 102 yds, 1 TD; A'Marion Peterson 12 for 51 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving David Amador 5 for 47 yds; DJ Allen 1 for 22 yds
Tulane leaders
- Passing Trace Johnson 24 of 44, 265 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Johnnie Daniels 8 for 104 yds, 1 TD; Jaylin Lucas 2 for 7 yds
- Receiving Garrett Mmahat 2 for 62 yds; Destyn Hill 5 for 54 yds
No rain through the game
70° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 74°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 84°.
October game-day temperatures at Yulman Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at New Orleans/lakefro airport, 8.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
UTSA · 6-1
Rated 18th in our preseason ratings, 33rd now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
Tulane · 3-3
Rated 75th in our preseason ratings, 73rd now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 14-point win over Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Tulane
- Wk 2Wvs South Alabama28-24
- Wk 3Lat Kansas State20-31
- Wk 4Wvs Southern Miss24-21
- Wk 6Lat Army17-20
- Wk 7Wvs Memphis31-17
UTSA
- Wk 3Lat Texas6-30
- Wk 4Wvs Colorado State59-45
- Wk 5Wat Rice16-14
- Wk 6Wvs South Florida31-24
- Wk 7Wvs Navy38-34
Power rating by week
UTSA is rated 5.7 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Tulane’s explosive plays against UTSA, 72 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Tulane’s explosive plays against UTSA’s defense
Tulane offense, 100th percentile · UTSA defense, 28th
Tulane’s success rate against UTSA’s defense
Tulane offense, 1st percentile · UTSA defense, 52nd
UTSA’s rushing EPA against Tulane’s defense
UTSA offense, 86th percentile · Tulane defense, 29th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
UTSA leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2013 · UTSA won the last meeting
- 2025UTSA 48-26
- 2023Tulane 29-16
- 2013UTSA 10-7
Each line is Tulane’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
UTSA fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (5th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
UTSA favored by 3 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
UTSA by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Tulane.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +4 → +3 · Total: 50.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Tulane is worth +5.8 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.
69% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (35-16 home, 25-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.5 at home vs. away over 107 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 503 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.