The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Fresno State 16%, No. 20 Boise State 28%, Washington State 45%
Win out 2% · expect 0.9 of 3 more wins
Colorado State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Boise State 28%, Washington State 45%, Fresno State 16%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 14% to 2%, peaking at 53% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing7th in the Pac-12 · 1-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Hauss Hejny 1,138 · Rushing Jayden Brown 454 · Receiving Reginald Vick Jr 425 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #79 | #111 | −2.5✓ +19.5 | Wyoming | W 35-13 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hejny 214 · Rush Brown 57 · Rec Vick Jr. 75 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #83 | #149 | −19.5✓ +14.5 | Southern Utah | W 58-24 133 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hejny 325 · Rush Brown 171 · Rec Harper 102 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #77 | #9 | +17.5✗ −0.5 | BYU | L 23-41 123 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Hejny 80 · Rush Robinson 29 · Rec Ross 85 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #76 | #11 | +14.5✓ +0.5 | @UTSA | L 45-59 150 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Farrar 344 · Rush Brown 90 · Rec Smith 102 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #72 | #52 | +7✗ −23 | Oregon State | L 26-56 110 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Farrar 183 · Rush Robinson 117 · Rec Vick Jr. 99 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 15 | #90 | #32 | +15.5✗ −23.5 | @Texas State | L 27-66 146 | 2-4 | 0-2 | Pass Farrar 289 · Rush Coleman 46 · Rec Harper 91 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #104 | #88 | +1.5✓ +8.5 | San Diego State | W 56-49 143 | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Hejny 333 · Rush Robinson 86 · Rec Maher 108 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #105 | #68 | +9.5✗ −7.5 | @Utah State | L 14-31 120 | 3-5 | 1-3 | Pass Hejny 186 · Rush Robinson 66 · Rec Smith 70 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #116 | #12 | +17.5 | Boise State | 6 pm ET · USA Network28% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #118 | #92 | @Washington State | 10:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network45% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Fresno State | 7:30 pm ET · The CW16% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Colorado State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Colorado State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Utah State | L 14-31 | 263 | 2 | 23:52 | +0.086 | 40.4% | 1.40 | |
| Oct 24 | San Diego State | W 56-49 | 549 | 2 | 32:36 | +0.376 | 58.7% | 1.22 | Best success rate |
| Oct 15 | @Texas State | L 27-66 | 437 | 0 | 30:36 | +0.118 | 39.4% | 1.54 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | Oregon State | L 26-56 | 359 | 1 | 12:43 | +0.095 | 50.0% | 1.08 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | @UTSA | L 45-59 | 500 | 1 | 31:17 | +0.299 | 40.5% | 1.71 | |
| Sep 19 | BYU | L 23-41 | 302 | 1 | 26:36 | -0.018 | 37.3% | 1.27 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Southern Utah | W 58-24 | 678 | 1 | 26:42 | +0.486 | 49.3% | 1.80 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Wyoming | W 35-13 | 396 | 0 | 29:19 | +0.301 | 48.5% | 1.21 | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (8 games) | 436 | 1.0 | +0.218 | 45.5% | 1.40 | ||||
Colorado State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
That was awful, an awful performance by all of us starting with me not getting the team ready to go
Range of outcomes · Colorado State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 33%; 4 wins 46%; 5 wins 18%; 6 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Pac-12 teams the same season
Colorado State is the Fort Collins program that finally got a real stage — a Pac-12 invite — at the exact moment it had to fire its coach and start over to prove it deserves the seat.
Rams fans have spent a generation watching Colorado get the cameras, the recruits, and the benefit of the doubt while Fort Collins gets called the other Colorado school. The Pac-12 move is the…
Colorado State · Game-day weather
Typical at Canvas Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 85 to 89
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Colorado State is the Mountain West program whose Sonny Lubick 1990s dynasty + Canvas Stadium 2017 opening + Jay Norvell era under construction define what Fort-Collins-G5-football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
43rd percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
5Colorado State's 2-10 record contrasts with its historical identity as a program defined by the Sonny Lubick 1990s dynasty and the promise of Jay Norvell's era.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Colorado State · 2026