CFB Zeitgeist Score
50
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 62nd percentile.
Lloyd Avant
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
417 RUSH YDS · 5 RUSH TD · 90 CARRIES
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Oklahoma
2025Colorado State
2026Oklahoma
RB · COLORADO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Lloyd Avant
- 2
- #25
- 5-10 | 200 lb
- Humble, TX
Heisman Heat
#1402
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025+61%
Up 61% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3-star | 0.8536 | No. 1457 recruit | HighSchool | Tulsa |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Colorado State -> Oklahoma | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
| 2025 | Tulsa -> Colorado State | 3-star | 0.8300 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Tulsa
Composite
0.8536
#1457 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Lloyd Avant
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Lloyd Avant
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 12g
417Rush yards
90Carries
5Rush TDs
Per game
34.8Rush yards
8Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
451.8Rush yards
98Carries
5Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 417): needs 333/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 417): needs 583/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 417): needs 1,083/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 5): needs 5/game over remaining 1.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 5): needs 10/game over remaining 1.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 5): needs 15/game over remaining 1.
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Lloyd Avant is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 417 rushing yards, 24 catches, and 268 return yards for Colorado State. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
90 75th
YDS
417 73rd
YPC
4.6 51st
TD
5 85th
Receiving
REC
24 90th
YDS
261 96th
YPR
10.9 83rd
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 21-38@ Washington | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 2 | W 21-17vs Northern Colorado | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 2 | 20 | |
| Wk 4 | L 16-17vs UTSA | 10 | 96 | 9.6 | 0 | 23 | Season-high 96 yds |
| Wk 5 | L 3-20vs Washington State | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 6 | L 24-45@ San Diego State | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 7 | W 49-21vs Fresno State | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 1 | 12 | |
| Wk 8 | L 19-31vs Hawai'i | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 9 | L 0-28@ Wyoming | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 11 | L 10-42vs UNLV | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 12 | L 17-20@ New Mexico | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 13 | L 21-49@ Boise State | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 1 | 9 | |
| Wk 14 | L 21-42vs Air Force | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 | 5 | |
| Total | 90 | 417 | 4.6 | 5 | 23 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Tulsa3-9HC: Kevin Wilson · Balanced
2025Colorado State2-10HC: Jay Norvell · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Colorado State | 90 | 417 | 4.6 | 5 | -- |
| 2024 | Tulsa | 76 | 259 | 3.4 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 166 | 676 | 4.1 | 6 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Colorado State | 24 | 261 | 10.9 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Tulsa | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 36 | 323 | 9.0 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 417 | #202/735 | 73rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 5 | #115/739 | 85th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.6 | #364/735 | 51st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 24 | #55/552 | 90th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 261 | #23/548 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.12 | #173/362 | 52nd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 77 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 15.7% | #164/738 | 78th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 90 | #188/739 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 23 | #358/733 | 51st pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 41 | #66/540 | 88th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 10.9 | #95/548 | 83rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 268 | #23/200 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 24.4 | #32/199 | 84th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 11 | #24/206 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 26.7% | #160/738 | 78th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 17.1% | #137/738 | 82nd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 16.9% | #191/738 | 74th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 15.9% | #209/738 | 72nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 14.4% | #79/738 | 89th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 13.5% | #98/738 | 87th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 7.3% | #72/738 | 90th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #78/256 | 70th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 46.3 | 5.5 | 0.6 |
| Road5g | 18.6 | 3.4 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 60.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 |
| Losses10g | 29.7 | 4.6 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 46.3 | 5.7 | 0.5 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 23.2 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
50Mid-pack
Elite: rec yards (93rd). Strength: receptions (83rd). Concern: long run (16th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.12Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Lloyd AvantColorado StateSeth McGowanKentucky· 76% simRashod DubinionApp State· 73% simAl-Jay HendersonBuffalo· 73% sim
Rec yards
Receptions
Rush TDs
Fumbles lost
Carries
Rush yards
Yards / carry
Long run
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Satellite Back
Deployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Malik Davis’s 2021 season.
Malik Davis
85%match
#2
Clay Thevenin
84%
#3
Nelson Smith
68%
#4
Lequint Allen
NFL Rd 7
71%
#5
Austin Jones
70%
Matches Malik on
Yards / carry
Weight
Class year
Differs from Malik on
Recruiting rating (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Tae Meadows’s path through Troy.
Tae Meadows
93%match
#2
Aaron Young
93%
#3
Darius Wilson
93%
#4
Willie Shaw III
92%
#5
Javin Gordon
92%
Matches Tae on
Height
Weight
Recruiting rating
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Malik Davis's sophomore season at Florida (2021).
Malik Davis
80%match
#2
Max Balthazar
71%
#3
Ty Clark III
70%
#4
Gi'Bran Payne
69%
#5
Turbo Richard
66%
Matches Malik on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
EPA / carry (adj)
Weight
Differs from Malik on
Class year (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jay Norvell
Pass share
52.1%
393 pass / 362 run
Plays / game
62.9
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.1%
315 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Jay Norvell
Colorado State
2025
Jay Norvell
Colorado State
Played his entire career under Jay Norvell.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownHumble, TX
Height5'10"
Weight200 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey25
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamColorado State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Tulsa | RB2 | #1402 | #2100 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | American Athletic |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Colorado State | Mountain West | RB | 2 | No. 25 | 5-10 | 200 lb | Humble, TX |
| 2024 | Tulsa | American Athletic | RB | 2 | No. 25 | 5-10 | 200 lb | Humble, TX |