Oklahoma 23-15 Mississippi State (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Oklahoma · Mississippi State

Oklahoma4-323

Mississippi State4-315Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss. · Crowd 49,224

Oklahoma beat Mississippi State 23-15.

We had Oklahoma favored. It won.

Next: Oklahoma vs South Carolina, Sat Oct 31 · 4:15 PM ET · Oklahoma favored by 5.5

Next: Mississippi State at Texas, Sat Oct 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Mississippi State underdog by 21

That’s malpractice to keep playing him

An Oklahoma fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oklahoma a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Oklahoma was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

A tight one: Oklahoma bottomed out at 48% and won.

Mississippi State never had better than a 52% chance.

Non-QB touchdown pass

Mississippi State · Q3 6:55

FinalOklahoma 23-15 Mississippi StateOklahoma wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 4:414th and 5Taylor sacked for a 2-yd loss, turnover on downsOklahoma 52% → 65% (+13)
2Q2 8:16Puckett 17-yd pass to EvansOklahoma 63% → 51% (−12)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 4:414th and 5Taylor sacked for a 2-yd loss, turnover on downsMississippi State 48% → 35% (−13)
2Q2 8:16Puckett 17-yd pass to EvansMississippi State 37% → 49% (+12)

Peyton Bowen my beloved.

Q4 8:07 · An Oklahoma fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 11:01Oklahoma fans rage as Sandell misses field goal after illegal formation penaltyThis coaching staff broke Sandell in the playoff last year. He’s a shell of himself.r/CFB game threadSandell went from NFL kicker to barely a HS level kickerr/CFB game thread
Q4 8:07Bowen intercepts Puckett as fans debate the holding call

Oklahoma’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oklahoma -1.5), at 48% for Oklahoma (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Mississippi State or Oklahoma flair (366 and 1,783); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Oklahoma’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Oklahoma scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Mississippi State on 2 of its 12.

Oklahoma’s drives are teal, Mississippi State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Mississippi State’s side

Mississippi State’s best moment: Puckett 17-yd pass to Evans (Q2 8:16). It lifted Mississippi State’s win chance by 12 points.

How Mississippi State fans took it: “Jeff Lebby better be fired after this season smh.” r/CFB game thread

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans had the most to say in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Oklahoma fans

mateer“Craziest stat today is there are TWO running backs with more carries than Mateer”

Mississippi State fans

lebby“Depends on if lebby kicks field goals in the red zone like he neglected to even attempt last week”

walk“We have three RBs minimum we can use. But yes let’s have the walk on QB try to throw against a good defense”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, take, every, need.

What it cost

Oklahoma’s chance to make the playoff rose from 8% to 11%.

Make the playoff

Oklahoma · won8% → ▲11%

Mississippi State · lost2% → ▼1%

Win the conference

Oklahoma · won0% → ▲1%

Mississippi State · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Oklahoma plays vs South Carolina on Sat Oct 31 with an 11% chance to make the playoff. Mississippi State plays at Texas on Sat Oct 31 with a 1% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 15

Oklahoma covered −1.5 by 6.5. The total, 38, stayed under 49.5.

Team totals	Oklahoma	Mississippi State
Total yards	467	352
Passing	22 of 29, 283 yds	20 of 30, 186 yds
Rushing	41 for 184 yds	33 for 166 yds
First downs	21	17
Third down	7 of 16	1 of 11
Fourth down	1 of 1	2 of 5
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	9 for 75 yds	8 for 90 yds
Time of possession	33:16	26:44

Oklahoma leaders

Passing John Mateer 22 of 29, 283 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Tory Blaylock 12 for 71 yds; Lloyd Avant 13 for 55 yds
Receiving Isaiah Sategna 8 for 164 yds, 1 TD; Rocky Beers 4 for 66 yds, 1 TD

Mississippi State leaders

Passing Parker Puckett 17 of 24, 158 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Fluff Bothwell 17 for 111 yds; Parker Puckett 7 for 37 yds
Receiving Sanfrisco Magee 3 for 65 yds, 1 TD; Anthony Evans III 6 for 33 yds

No rain through the game

77° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 64°, with about 7 in 10 games between 53° and 76°.

October game-day temperatures at Davis Wade Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:53 left2:36 p.m.

Oklahoma 0, Mississippi State 0 · Mississippi State 52% to win

no rain · 77°

Taylor incomplete to Ragins

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Starkville airport, 3.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Oklahoma · 3-3

Rated 17th in our preseason ratings, 30th now, down 13 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Texas as a 7.5-point underdog.

L 13-21 vs KentuckyTop 25 No. 39 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 7-point favorite

W 27-24 vs TexasTop 25 No. 5 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 13-41 @ GeorgiaTop 25 No. 1 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as an 11.5-point underdog

W 14-6 vs New Mexico No. 68 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 10-17 @ MichiganTop 25 No. 18 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 51-0 vs UTEP No. 196 of 668 teams

won by 51 as a 40.5-point favorite

Last three games

Mississippi State · 4-2

Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings, 79th now, up 53 spots.

1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 0-31 @ LSUTop 25 No. 8 of 668 teams

lost by 31 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 23-56 vs AlabamaTop 25 No. 8 of 668 teams

lost by 33 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 31-24 vs MissouriTop 25 No. 39 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 41-34 @ South Carolina No. 22 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 3-point underdog

W 38-13 @ Minnesota No. 40 of 668 teams

won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 62-13 vs UL Monroe No. 162 of 668 teams

won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite

Week by week

Mississippi State

Wk 2Wat Minnesota38-13
Wk 3Wat South Carolina41-34
Wk 4Wvs Missouri31-24
Wk 5Lvs Alabama23-56
Wk 7Lat LSU0-31

Oklahoma

Wk 2Lat Michigan10-17
Wk 3Wvs New Mexico14-6
Wk 4Lat Georgia13-41
Wk 6Wvs Texas27-24
Wk 7Lvs Kentucky13-21

Power rating by week

Oklahoma is rated 6.6 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Mississippi State, 67 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Mississippi State’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 9th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 76th
Oklahoma’s rushing EPA against Mississippi State’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 2nd percentile · Mississippi State defense, 68th
Mississippi State’s EPA/play against Oklahoma’s defense
Mississippi State offense, 53rd percentile · Oklahoma defense, 95th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

OklahomaMississippi State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Mississippi State fans are in a better mood than Oklahoma fans (47th percentile vs 7th among FBS fanbases), even with Oklahoma favored.

Oklahoma favored by 1.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Oklahoma by 1.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The total rose 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Mississippi State is worth +3.4 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 35th percentile.

50% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (26-26 home, 14-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 508 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Mississippi State9th2-2
Oklahoma11th1-2

Full SEC standings

Oklahoma beats Mississippi State 23-15